Municipal Market Analytics, Inc.

MMA's Chart of the Week: The US presidential election is today. Many polls and oddsmakers show a tight race, with PredictIt showing odds of 56% that Donald Trump will win the White House. Municipal price performance during the month of November has been mixed in past election years. November 2016 was a clear outlier which, following Trump’s election victory, was defined by high interest rate volatility and strained tax-exempt liquidity. Order was eventually provided by algorithmic accounts, but yields still rose sharply, and memories of the period have created angst ahead of the upcoming 2024 election. Nonetheless, November’s performance in recent years has skewed the month’s seasonal bias positively, which has quickly become the fourth best month of the calendar year. #chartoftheweek #fixedincome #municipalbonds

Tom Doe & others explore why 27 states are running out of cash in this segment produced by CNBC. https://lnkd.in/gwEkXarF

MMA’s Chart of the Week: Municipal bonds have experienced sharp declines so far month-to-date. In the wake of the September Fed meeting, implied odds suggested that there would be 75bps worth of additional cuts by the end of the year. Recently strong data has thrown water on aggressive rate cut bets, and markets are now pricing in just 1.7 cuts (of 25bps) by the end of the year. Employment data to be released later this week could shift sentiment significantly. #municipalbonds #fixedincome #chartoftheweek

MMA's Chart of the Week: Yesterday, the Commonwealth of PA sold three GO deals totaling $1.6B. On October 7, Moody’s upgraded PA’s GO debt from Aa3 to Aa2. Moody's cited significant increases in its budget stabilization reserves and less pressure from long term liabilities. Fitch and S&P affirmed their respective ratings (S&P maintained a positive outlook). The Commonwealth’s spreads to AAA benchmarks have held in a narrow range over the last year. As of Tuesday’s close, a 10yr PA GO eval was 2.95%. Yesterday, PA GO 5s of 2034 were priced in line with that evaluation at 2.95%. #chartoftheweek #fixedincome #municipalbonds

MMA's Chart of the Week: Today, there was a block trade on a Tampa, FL Univ. of Tampa Project revenue bond, 4s of 2050, at 4.32%. The evaluation of the bond was 4.30% as of yesterday’s close. There has not been a widening of spreads as a result of recent hurricane risk. Hurricane Milton is expected to make landfall on Wednesday evening, and many residents on the western coast of FL have been told to evacuate. #chartoftheweek #fixedincome #municipalbonds

Municipal Market Analytics and many other muni greats like Howard Cure, John Mousseau, Tom Kozlik and Jenny Poree comment on Helene in today's The Bond Buyer! https://lnkd.in/eviEHh7T

Our Online Self Study Class on Municipal Credit and Strategy led by Matt Fabian guides you through our approach to managing municipal credit risk. It's extremely comprehensive and offers 20CPE credits- for those govt accountants! It's ideal for accountants, public finance members, govt officials, credit analysts, bond traders, PMs and a great way to jump start a training process for new hires. https://lnkd.in/eazizB2F

MMA's Chart of the Week: On average, the 12-months following the start of prior/recent loosening cycles have been defined by strong municipal performance across strategies. #chartoftheweek #municipalbonds #fixedincome

Exciting times for Municipals. Climate change, federal deficits promote growing issuance!! "This is the big opportunity for the municipal market," Doe said. "The intersection of public policy, infrastructure needs and the necessity to deal with climate consequences — the municipal market is going to make a ton of money." Read about it in today's The Bond Buyer https://lnkd.in/eKUieK_R

MMA's Chart of the Week: The FOMC is expected to cut rates for the first time in four years tomorrow, but whether it will be 25bps or 50bps remains up in the air. The odds of a 50bp cut are currently around ~65%. Municipal bond prices were little changed in the wake of the last decision on July 31, but prior to that meeting municipals had responded positively to four of the prior six Fed decisions. #municipalbonds #fixedincome #chartoftheweek