OptionMetrics

𝗪𝗲'𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗿𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗼 𝗮𝗻𝗻𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗹𝗮𝘂𝗻𝗰𝗵 𝗼𝗳 𝗜𝘃𝘆𝗗𝗕 𝗜𝗺𝗽𝗹𝗶𝗲𝗱 𝗗𝗶𝘃𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗻𝗱! This innovative dataset taps into the predictive power of the options market, offering a risk-neutral measure of future dividends. We're confident it will become your go-to resource for understanding dividend risks and prediction. 𝗪𝗮𝗻𝘁 𝘁𝗼 𝗹𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗻 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗮𝗯𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗵𝗼𝘄 𝗜𝘃𝘆𝗗𝗕 𝗜𝗺𝗽𝗹𝗶𝗲𝗱 𝗗𝗶𝘃𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗻𝗱 𝗰𝗮𝗻 𝗲𝗻𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝘆𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗲𝘀? Click here: https://bit.ly/4dUrhxu #OptionsMarket #DividendForecasting #InvestmentResearch

As the U.S. approaches a pivotal election, tariffs have emerged at the forefront of economic discussion. Presidential candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have laid their proposals for a future vision of the American economy which could have significant implications for American industries, consumers, and the future of dividends and dividend forecasting. Read the latest Woodseer Global Dividend Forecasting blog below to learn more. #election #dividends #dividendforecasting #tariffs

"The vanna effect may play a similar role in propelling the market post-elections as it did in 2020, says Garrett DeSimone, head of quantitative research at OptionMetrics. 'The idea is that volatility has been priced higher due to hedging against election risk. Once this risk is resolved and the worst fears do not materialize, volatility is typically crushed,' he says." Read the full Bloomberg article, "Buybacks, FOMO, ‘Vanna Tailwind’ Prime Stocks for Year-End Rally," to learn more. #volatility #options #hedging #stocks #election

The Presidential election is next week and commentators are busy accessing what effect it will have on the markets. In his latest blog, OptionMetrics Contributor Brett Friedman argues that the effect is hard to determine and less than most people think. Read the full blog below. #election #volatility #options

𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗼𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀 𝗿𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗮𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗮𝗯𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗶𝗻𝘀𝘁𝗶𝘁𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗶𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗮𝗵𝗲𝗮𝗱 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗨.𝗦. 𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻? Garrett DeSimone, Ph.D., Head of Quantitative Research at OptionMetrics, shares his insights on the latest market data: • Historically, 𝘃𝗼𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝘀𝗽𝗶𝗸𝗲𝘀 𝗼𝗰𝗰𝘂𝗿 𝗮𝗵𝗲𝗮𝗱 𝗼𝗳 𝗨.𝗦. 𝗴𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀, followed by a normalization once uncertainty clears. We expect volatility to continue to rise ahead of Election Day, mirroring the trends we saw in 2016 and 2020. • Our current data shows that 𝗶𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗽𝗮𝘆𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗮 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝗺𝗶𝘂𝗺 𝘁𝗼 𝗵𝗲𝗱𝗴𝗲 against downside risk through elevated SPX. • Elevated skew levels suggest 𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗲𝗱 𝗼𝘂𝘁-𝗼𝗳-𝘁𝗵𝗲-𝗺𝗼𝗻𝗲𝘆 (𝗢𝗧𝗠) options buying, indicating that downside hedging activity has intensified. • The 30-day BTC skew remains balanced, suggesting 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝗲𝗾𝘂𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 𝘄𝗲𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘂𝗽𝘀𝗶𝗱𝗲 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗱𝗼𝘄𝗻𝘀𝗶𝗱𝗲 𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗸𝘀 ahead of the election. Ar𝗲 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝗽𝗮𝗿𝗲𝗱 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝘃𝗼𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆? Contact OptionMetrics today to learn how our options data can guide your strategies ahead of and after the elections.

"Unlock hidden market signals with OptionMetrics' new implied dividends product that exposes what Wall Street really thinks about future payouts. This analysis focuses on using this data to extract implied dividend growth—a potential game changer for factor investing," comments Anton Rotach, quantitative researcher at OptionMetrics, in reference to his most recent blog. With enhanced visibility into future payout expectations, this tool offers investors the ability to fine-tune their investment strategies. Read the full blog below.

Brett Friedman of Winhall Risk Analytics, an OptionMetrics contributor, appears on "The Futures Rundown 7: The Trouble with Futures Prices" with host Mark Longo, where they analyze the current futures market and pricing methodology. Read the full podcast below. #FuturesMarket #Options #Trading

“'Generally, a larger gap is often a bullish signal over medium-term horizons, like three to six months,' said Garrett DeSimone, head of quantitative research at OptionMetrics. 'This is because the market tends to price in rising volatility risk, which often doesn’t materialize. The eventual resolution of these events could reduce volatility, leading to positive market returns.'” OptionMetrics' Head Quant Garrett DeSimone, Ph.D. is featured in the latest Bloomberg article which discusses the VIX, implied volatility rising on election, earnings, and rate risks. Read the full article below. #options #volatility #vix #earnings #trading

#EventAlert OptionMetrics will be sponsoring and speaking Quant Strats in London on October 8, 2024. Will we see you there? Find us at booth A6 and OptionMetrics' Quantitative Researcher Abhinav Gupta will speak about “Accessing the Power of Implied Dividends” at 10:20 a.m. Ed Dean and William Ko will be onsite to meet with alpha seekers, investment funds, and professionals to discuss how data on the options and futures market, dividend forecasting, and implied betas can help in navigating uncertain times, reducing risk, and improving investment strategies. #QS24 #QuantStrats #OptionsMarket #DividendForecasting #InvestmentResearch Learn more: https://lnkd.in/etxHMDH3 Quant Strats: https://lnkd.in/e8i2gHTn OptionMetrics: www.optionmetrics.com

OptionMetrics is pleased to announce the official release of IvyDB Implied Dividend. This new dataset uses options pricing data to provide forward-looking dividend projections for optionable single-name securities in the US, two years into the future. “The options market holds a wealth of information, including on potential dividend signal changes, cuts and suspensions, risk premium, and market sentiment on dividend yields”  - OptionMetrics Founder and CEO David Hait, Ph.D. It is a powerful tool for use in creating trading strategies, constructing investment portfolios, and comparing securities and their potential future yields. Take a look at the data in action: this chart shows the implied dividend distributions and projections for GE Aerospace stock (Ticker: GE) from January 2023 through July 2024, using OptionMetrics’ new IvyDB Implied Dividend dataset. Read on to learn more: https://lnkd.in/d9YiKJKJ #OptionsMarket #DividendForecasting #InvestmentResearch