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As we approach the election, it’s crucial for leaders to consider how the results will shape the business landscape. Mathew Lapinski, CEO of Crossroads Strategies, recently participated in a panel discussion at the 2024 IMF/World Bank Fall Meetings, where he explored how potential changes will impact various industries and influence company strategies.
Uncertainty around the outcome of the US elections, heightened geopolitical risks and competitive industrial policy as the new normal were the dominant themes from the investor seminar at the 2024 IMF/World Bank Fall Meetings. Great insights on the election dynamics from the fireside chat with Jim Messina moderated by Charles Myers and the panel discussion with Bob Cusack, Francis (Frank) Kelly, Mathew Lapinski and Elizabeth Herman The presidential race remains too tight to call, while speakers at our investor seminar at the IMF World Bank Fall Meetings and respondents to our investor survey see a divided Congress as the most likely outcome by a wide margin. Polling has consistently underestimated lower-income, below-college-educated turnout, which was a factor in both 2016 and 2020. Additionally, polls most recently have also underestimated Democratic strength with women in the post-Dobbs decision era. Pennsylvania is critical, and speakers predicted that whoever wins the state has an 85% chance of winning the presidential election. Thank you to Scott Bessent for sharing his views on Trump’s priorities in a conversation moderated by J.P. Morgan’s Co-Head of Macro Sales, Benjamin Kinney . Increased use of tariffs and the consequences were debated in virtually every meeting, with a range of views from Trump advisors. Some argue that the rhetoric is simply negotiating tactics to escalate to de-escalate, while others made the case that interventions at the macroeconomic level, such as broad-based tariffs, would be more effective than microeconomic interventions, such as industrial policy, to provide more effective levers to confront the underlying sources of imbalances than the currently dominant bilateral approach to tariffs. Grateful to Blair Effron for discussing his views on Kamala Harris’ policy priorities, emphasizing her post-pandemic track record of growing the economy and creating jobs. Harris would take a targeted approach to tariffs, in keeping with “small yard, high fence” for five strategic industries. Investment in the energy transition and AI remain priorities, building on the Inflation Reduction Act and CHIPS Act. AI could contribute as much as $4 trillion to GDP, and 5 companies have invested $130 billion last year.