StormImpact

"In our decade-long journey of developing our own model, then seeking external assistance to develop an operationally practical model (we left no stone unturned), only StormImpact offered a solution that we have been able to rely upon operationally – for an extremely reasonable price." Meet FirstEnergy Senior Meteorologist Peter Manousos, who plays a leading role in FirstEnergy's award-winning storm outage and restoration initiatives. Learn how Pete and his team use StormImpact to help their organization stay one step ahead of severe weather. Q: Tell us how you first got involved in your position and how your role supports the company. A: I arrived to FirstEnergy after an extremely fun 15 year career in NOAA NWS back in the mid-2000s. I applied the experience in NOAA as a forecaster, operations officer and trainer to start a centralized meteorological service in FirstEnergy “on the side” to my primary role assisting as a technical expert in the realm of Air Quality Policy. Since then, the company uses the meteorological service primarily to prepare logistically for weather inciting power restoration and also for a variety of purposes to address its core mission.    Q: Describe past challenges for you and your team, and how has StormImpact helped resolve those? A: The Holy Grail for any utility company is to reliably express the impacts of expected weather in terms used for logistical planning (customers, orders, etc.). FirstEnergy had developed its own customer and order model, however, could only get the model performance to a near but less than satisfactory level. StormImpact’s experience, horse power, and collaborative savvy allowed FirstEnergy to finally cross the finish line with a different but extremely operationally useful model.    Q: What does StormImpact provide that is unique and why? A: Simply put – StormImpact helped FirstEnergy develop a model that is operationally practical. In our decade-long journey of developing our own model, then seeking external assistance to develop an operationally practical model (we left no stone unturned by working with academia, the Federal Government, big and small name private companies), only StormImpact offered a solution that we have been able to rely upon operationally – for an extremely reasonable price.    Q: What do you do for a hobby outside of work? A: After church and family (which are my priorities and not hobbies), hobbies include weather, playing baseball, playing guitar in a performing classic rock band, fly fishing, and electronics.    Q: Tell us about someone who has influenced you and why? A: After God and the Saints, that would be my Dad – he was an upright man and I try to follow in his footsteps.    Q: What might people be surprised to know about you? A: Although I graduated high school in the mid-80s, my first concert was actually Elvis Presley in Rhode Island the year before he died (not kidding). 

In the days prior to Hurricane #Milton's landfall, StormImpact provided Best Estimate power outage forecasts ranging between 3.8-4.0M customers without power. Actual outages peaked at 3.9M customers without power, validating our aggregated forecast. Below is our brief review of our power outage forecasts derived from StormImpact's national outage model.

[Update: 10/9/2024 – 5:30 PM EDT] As of 5pm EDT, Category 3 #Hurricane #Milton has sustained winds of 120 mph. While Milton has weakened since this morning, the wind field has expanded. A wind gust of 68 mph was recorded in Fort Myers. Strong winds and tornadoes have already begun to cause power outages in #Florida. At 5:15pm ET, there were a little over 125,000 power outages. Power outages will continue to increase tonight and through tomorrow morning. StormImpact’s estimated total number of power outages is between 3.9M and 5.1M for the state of Florida. The worst-case scenario brings power outages to 5.8M. Below are StormImpact’s updated forecasts of percentage of homes and businesses with power outages by county. The map on the left is StormImpact’s median estimate (most likely result) of power outages and the map on the right is the 75th percentile estimate (more pessimistic result) of power outages.

[Update: 10/9/2024 – 9:30 AM EDT] As of 8am EDT, Major #Hurricane #Milton has sustained winds of 155 mph – 2 mph shy of a category 5 hurricane. Milton’s wind field is expanding as it approaches the western coast of Florida. Milton will make landfall tonight as a powerful hurricane. Power outages will rapidly increase late this evening into tomorrow morning as Milton moves over central Florida. StormImpact’s estimated total number of power outages is between 4.0M and 5.6M for the state of Florida. The worst-case scenario brings power outages to 6.4M. Below are StormImpact’s updated forecasts of percentage of homes and businesses with power outages by county. The map on the left is StormImpact’s median estimate (most likely result) of power outages and the map on the right is the 75th percentile estimate (more pessimistic result) of power outages. StormImpact will provide another update this afternoon.

[Update: 10/8/2024 – 7:20 PM EDT] As of 5:30pm EDT, #Milton has restrengthened into a dangerous Category 5 #hurricane with sustained winds of 165 mph. Some weakening is likely as Milton approaches Florida, but this will also double the size of impactful winds. Milton is expected to make landfall as a dangerous and major hurricane along the middle Gulf-coast of Florida. Power outages are likely to rapidly increase tomorrow night into Thursday morning as Milton makes landfall and moves over central Florida. Our estimated total number of customers without power is between 3.9M and 5.4M for the state of Florida. Below are StormImpact’s updated forecasts of percentage of homes and businesses with power outages by county. There’s been a southern trend of impacts with this update due to model track southward trends. The map on the left is StormImpact’s median estimate (most likely result) of power outages and the map on the right is the 75th percentile estimate (more pessimistic result) of power outages. Adjustments to track and intensity are still possible. Historical track records suggest an average error of 60 miles this far out from landfall is possible. Check back for future updates.

[Update: 10/8/2024 – 10 AM EDT] As of 8am EDT, Major #Hurricane #Milton has sustained winds of 145 mph. Milton is currently a category four hurricane but is forecast to strengthen back into a category five today. Some weakening is likely as Milton approaches Florida, but this will also expand the extent of impactful winds. Milton is expected to make landfall as a dangerous and major hurricane along the middle Gulf-coast of Florida. Below are StormImpact’s updated forecasts of percentage of homes and businesses with power outages by county. There has been a subtle northward shift in power outage impacts. The map on the left is StormImpact’s median estimate (most likely result) of power outages and the map on the right is the 75th percentile estimate (more pessimistic result) of power outages. Power outages are likely to rapidly increase Wednesday night into Thursday morning as #Milton makes landfall and moves over central Florida. Our estimated total number of customers without power is between 4.0M (most likely) and 5.1M (more pessimistic) for the state of Florida. These predictions may change with adjustments in track, intensity, and extent of impactful winds. Check back for future updates.

[10/7/2024 - 1:30 PM EST] Hurricane #Milton has rapidly intensified into a Category 5 hurricane. As of 12pm EDT, Major Hurricane Milton has sustained winds of 160 mph. Rapid intensification increased the sustained winds almost 100 mph in 24 hours – incredible. Unfortunately, Milton is taking aim on the middle Gulf Coast of Florida beginning Wednesday evening. Milton is expected to remain a major hurricane at landfall. Below are StormImpact’s initial forecasts of percentage of homes and businesses with power outages by county. The map on the left is StormImpact’s median estimate (most likely result) of power outages and the map on the right is the 75th percentile estimate (more pessimistic result) of power outages. Power outages are likely to rapidly increase when #Hurricane #Milton is anticipated to make landfall on Wednesday night in Central Florida. Our estimated total number of customers without power is between 3.8M (median) and 5.3M (75th percentile) for the state of Florida. These predictions may change with future adjustments in track, intensity, and extent of impactful winds. Check back for more updates.

As Steven Quiring and I head back home from Indian Wells, CA, feeling energized and inspired after a fantastic few days at the Edison Electric Institute #TDMMA24 Conference, I reflect back on another great conference. We reconnected with open-minded industry professionals, strengthened existing relationships, and formed new connections. The conference provided a valuable platform to share insights, explore partnerships, and discuss how StormImpact can support innovative utilities. It was great catching up with you all, some for the first time in-person: John H., Robert Cregge, Colby Gravatt, Robert Bridges, Timothy Hayes, Michael Martin, Dennis Darling, Darrin Reeb, Angie Gibson, and many others. Safe travels home everyone! The event's content was relevant and timely, and the networking opportunities were invaluable. We're looking forward to building on this momentum and exploring potential collaborations. Thanks to the EEI team for a well-organized conference and to our fellow attendees for sharing your experiences. #TDMMA24 #IndianWells #StormImpact #UtilityIndustry #Innovation #Collaboration #FutureOfEnergy

What a storm! As of 5pm EDT, over 4.5 million people are without power across the Ohio Valley and Southeast due to Hurricane #Helene's devastating impact. Utility restoration crews are now assessing damage and working diligently to safely restore power. Effective pre-storm planning is critical for utilities to minimize outage duration, reduce costs, and alleviate regulatory pressure. Pictured are StormImpact's regional power outage predictions based on last night's data relative to actual power outages as of this afternoon, which are derived from our national power outage prediction model. Interested in being prepared ahead of the storm? If you have data, we can model it! Reach out via our contact form to learn more: https://lnkd.in/gERTKiWE.

We will be heading to the Edison Electric Institute's Transmission, Distribution, Metering, and Mutual Assistance (TDMMA) Conference from September 29 to October 2! StormImpact's Jamie McKee and Steven Quiring are looking forward to connecting with valued customers, industry friends, and making new connections. But that's not all! Steven Quiring will be a panelist on Tuesday, October 1, at 3pm PT on 'Preparing For Incidents' (Mutual Assistance track). Don't miss it! If you're attending, let's schedule a meeting! Reach out to us to learn more about StormImpact's innovative solutions or to discuss how we can help you. #TDMMA24 Let's connect! Hope to see you there!