The Superpower Institute

Australia's energy market operator, AEMO, has revealed a surge in renewable energy contributions to the national grid in Q4 2024, a trend you can track in real time on Open Electricity. Record levels were driven by growth in rooftop and grid-scale solar output, combined with reduced coal plant availability. Electricity supplied by coal generation fell below 50% for the first time. AEMO also highlighted that the declining reliability of black coal plants and constraints in electricity transmission – which limit the flow of cheaper energy – were key drivers of energy price spikes during the quarter. For more insights like these, and a real-time look into Australia's energy transition, visit Open Electricity.

In an article for The Age last year, UNSW Energy Systems researcher and TSI collaborator Dr Dylan McConnell raised concerns about recent modelling on a potential Australian nuclear power industry, pointing out its assumptions of a smaller economy and energy grid, with reduced industrial activity.

The Parron Wind Farm in Badgingarra is set to deliver $17 million to the community over 35 years through its community benefit fund. Projects like this demonstrate how renewable energy can drive regional revitalisation, providing steady income for landholders, infrastructure upgrades and new opportunities for local economies. These outcomes are a glimpse of what's possible on a larger scale. With renewables now nearing 40% of the electricity mix (as tracked on Open Electricity) and heading towards 82% by 2030, the benefits for regional communities will only continue to grow – creating jobs, strengthening infrastructure, and ensuring no one is left behind in Australia's clean energy transition. https://lnkd.in/gVjvD6Tr

In the Australian today – TSI CEO Baethan Mullen and Chair Rod Sims explain why dismissing Australia’s goal to become a renewable energy superpower misunderstands Australia’s opportunity. "One can doubt the world's ultimate progress to net zero but it is not wise to dismiss the opportunity ... Australia can secure a leading role in the emerging clean-energy trade. Not to position to do so is to continue to put all our economic eggs in the fossil fuel basket which is a high-risk approach." https://lnkd.in/gBgVpbUg

Bonus episode and the final POE for awhile... Meet Ross Garnaut..... who if you are an economics tragic like me, will be a household name. In brief, Ross is a professorial research fellow in economics at the University of Melbourne. In 2008, he produced the Garnaut Climate Change Review for the Australian government. He is the author of many books, including the bestselling Dog Days, Superpower and Reset. Drawing on his unrivalled expertise in economics, industrial development and climate change, Garnaut makes the case for a levy on the big polluters that will help fund Australia to become a carbon-free energy giant, lower the cost of living and assist the world to cut emissions. His latest book ‘Let’s Tax Carbon – and other ideas for a better Australia’ Garnaut examines Australia’s economic history, breaking down which policies have worked and which haven’t. He critiques the Albanese government’s first term and presents a set of policies that, he argues, can deliver full employment with rising incomes for a growing Australian populations. As well as analysing Australian monetary and fiscal policy, Let’s Tax Carbon also looks overseas to the consequences of Trump and Biden’s economic policies and how countries including China, Japan and the United States are responding to climate change. How can Australia do this in a new era of fresh Trump policies? Well let's find out. (This is one of my favourite conversations of 2024!) Hear it via https://lnkd.in/gcBAG9d8 or https://lnkd.in/gFCCadca #POE #carbontax #climatechange #economics #Australiapolicy #futureofplanet #greenerleaner #renewables

The Superpower Institute welcomes the passing of legislation to underpin the Government’s $22.7 billion Future Made in Australia policy initiative. As TSI’s research has demonstrated, the superpower opportunity has the potential to contribute to a reduction of up to 10% of global emissions while earning export revenues for Australia of $700 billion annually. https://lnkd.in/gUWQgKJu We recognise the legislation as an important part of unlocking this opportunity by establishing the legislative framework and institutional powers to support the FMIA. The National Interest Framework is one important element to provide rigour to government decisions about which industries to support, focusing on where Australia enjoys comparative advantage. The $2/kg hydrogen production tax credit, which is subject to a separate piece of legislation still before parliament, is another important part of realising the superpower opportunity. TSI has welcomed the introduction of this legislation and the important role it can play in levelling the playing field the absence of a carbon price.

Australia could gain some $700b in export opportunities from green exports such as green iron. This is over five times the usual value of our coal and gas exports. Therefore the Superpower Institute (TSI) strongly welcomes the Future Made in Australia (Production Tax Credit and Other Measures) Bill 2024, to provide, among other things for a $2kg production credit for hydrogen. "The immediate use of hydrogen for Australia - where our comparative advantage is - is as an input for industrial processes, for example, as a reductant to take the place of metallurgical coal to reduce iron ore to iron metal, said Rod Sims, Chair of TSI. "Hydrogen is needed for its chemical properties as a key enabler of green iron, green fertiliser and green shipping and aviation fuel and is central to decarbonising many sectors that cannot decarbonise through electrification. "As indicated in the Treasury's Public Interest Framework for the Future Made in Australia, the $2kg production credit is the Government playing its appropriate role in the absence of a carbon price to level the playing field. "The hydrogen production credits are therefore not a subsidy; they instead represent sound economics by levelling the playing field between green products that do not damage the environment, and products produced with fossil fuel which do. Read full media release here: https://lnkd.in/gk7UFQ6v

"Finighan’s report, The New Energy Trade, provides world-first analysis of likely international trade in clean energy and finds Australia could contribute up to 10 per cent of the world’s emissions reductions while generating six to eight times larger revenues than those typical from our fossil fuel exports. He demonstrates that, though Australia’s present comparative advantage in producing fossil fuels – coal and natural gas – for export will lose its value as the world moves to net zero carbon emissions, it can be replaced by a new and much more valuable comparative advantage in exporting energy-intensive iron and steel, aluminium and urea, plus green fuels for shipping, aviation and road freight, with our renewable energy from solar and wind embedded in them."

Five key economies will fail to produce enough cheap zero-carbon energy to meet their needs in reaching net zero targets, creating an opportunity for a $700bn export industry for Australia – an amount many times larger than the typical revenues from Australian fossil fuel exports. This is the key finding of The New Energy Trade, a groundbreaking report by The Superpower Institute’s Dr Reuben Finighan. Read the report: https://lnkd.in/gUWQgKJu China, India, Japan, South Korea and Germany are expected to face zero-carbon shortfalls of between 37 and 63% by mid-century, even with accelerated rollout of nuclear energy and carbon capture and storage. As the world electrifies existing fossil-fuel sources of energy, a new form of energy trade will emerge: trade in commodities with embodied zero-carbon energy. Green forms of iron, aluminium, silicon, fertilisers and fuels will be at the heart of this kind of trade and are central to the opportunity. With its rich solar and wind resources, Australia’s potential contribution to global mitigation via these exports is large – equal to between 6.7 and 9.6 percent of 2021 emissions. Reuben’s analysis builds on Ross Garnaut’s seminal Superpower work and solidifies the case for Australia’s superpower future. We hope this work inspires further discussion and action. Stay tuned for more from TSI on Australia’s leadership in the zero-carbon economy.

Donald Trump is a blow to Australia on climate and trade. Here's how we minimise the damage. Ross Garnaut, The Guardian https://lnkd.in/gQK9pXKh