The Macro Institute

The newest Macro Monday is out! "The other key series to keep an eye on is Overtime Hours. As the chart illustrates, trends in Overtime Hours typically mimic those in S&P 500 Earnings growth. Given that we are halfway through earnings season, it might be the one indicator to focus on come Friday." Read More Here: https://lnkd.in/gXD7_T2i

Big week for data ahead. Earnings season is in full swing and we get the employment report for October on Friday. Macro Monday is the BEST way to prepare for the week ahead. Our 2,000 subscribers get crucial macro information delivered straight to their inbox each and every Monday morning. What are you waiting for? Subscribe Here: https://lnkd.in/g_jq7SyK

A quiet week of data ahead means we get to spend some time looking at less traditional sources of information. Interestingly, Indeed produces daily data on labor markets. Daily data is hard to use given how volatile it is, but it does go to show how different (and awesome!) things are for economic data nerds. Subscribe to Macro Monday to learn more about what Indeed is telling us about the housing market: https://lnkd.in/g_jq7SyK

Congratulations to Kentaro Lee (Kentaro L.) for winning the Trinity College Student Investment Fund's stock pitch competition last spring ... as a Freshman! He gave a very professional pitch on the South American e-commerce giant Mercado Libre (MELI). Currently a Sophomore, Kentaro is an Economics major and the Co-Head of the fund's International Equities group. As a result of this accomplishment, Kentaro will have the opportunity to sit for Level 1 of the Macro Specialist Designation program for FREE. If you or someone you know is affiliated with a College or University Investment Club and are interested in partnering with The Macro Institute, don't hesitate to reach out!

"Retail Sales and Industrial Production are where we're keenly focused this week. These two series typically trend in the same direction as S&P 500 earnings growth. It will be interesting to see if either show signs of slowing as forward earnings growth did last month. This information will be valuable as we head into the Q3 reporting season." https://lnkd.in/gCrtxeiz

"The September payrolls report provided much needed relief to investors increasingly concerned about labor markets. The numbers certainly looked good on the surface. That said, large revisions recently leave some doubt as to whether the numbers will hold up as the BLS continues its revision process. More importantly, perhaps, is that the employment picture looked weaker in survey data from the ISM and the NFIB." Read the rest of Macro Monday here: https://lnkd.in/g5pX-dFK

Labor markets will be in focus for investors this week. Higher unemployment was the primary catalyst for the Federal Reserve to decrease interest rates 50 bps at its last policy meeting. Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that labor markets remain healthy, but the policy shift suggests the trend is concerning. https://lnkd.in/gYhwmNnv

Incoming Housing Bounce? Not So Fast! "A key component for housing is the state of labor markets, and they have clearly lost steam in recent months. We might not see the anticipated bounce in housing starts and NAHB until we have stronger labor markets." https://lnkd.in/gnxEf7FM

Don't forget, we sponsor University Investment and Trading clubs! We've partnered with numerous college investment and trading clubs to host speaking engagements as well as sponsor investment competitions. Winners receive a FREE seat to sit for Level 1 of M²SD exam exam. A great way to show initiative as you look to lock down your first job after graduation. If you or someone you know is a member of a University Investment Club, reach out to Ryan Hartung, CFA (rhartung@themacroinstitute.com) to get the conversation going! We look forward to hearing from you!

"We have a Fed meeting this month (and likely rate cut) and the focus between now and then will be on leading indicators of employment, like continuing claims. It tends to lead unemployment by a couple quarters, so it is one to keep an eye on." https://lnkd.in/gnYPjdM3