Capital Economics

Capital Economics' analysis is now available to CE clients on the Bloomberg Terminal. This collaboration responds directly to our client feedback, ensuring seamless access to our insights within Bloomberg’s workflow solutions. Read our press release to learn more about this innovative integration. https://lnkd.in/eGFQyQJm

Looking forward to delivering the keynote address (and of course, being back in Mumbai) for #GTRIndia 2025 on 14th May. From Trump tariffs to free trade talks to a shifting geopolitical landscape, there is no shortage of talking points when it comes to global trade policy, and India's role within it. Lots of insightful and engaging discussions to be had!

Through the haze of a fluey-cold I joined a couple of interesting Urban Land Institute webinars yesterday covering the release of the 2025 Global Emerging Trends in Real Estate Report. (The global report pulls together the regional ones from late last year, but with added interviews and roundtables). My five most interesting takeaways: 1. There's a big divergence in the stage of the recovery within Europe. Bid-ask spreads are narrow in Spain, feeding through to decent improvement in activity. Conversely, Germany (and Poland) still seeing a wide spread. Also noted vendors not in a hurry to sell at current prices and that inflows are targeting alternative CRE/other real asset types. (More on that in number 4) [Qn: What will make the market eventually clear? How low would bond yields need to go to bring things round?] 2. Sticking with Europe, institutions continue to expand into th debt market, which looks pretty attractive, given that assets have mostly repriced and interest rates look like they've peaked. That is driving more availability of debt, which in turn is starting to drive competition between lenders. 3. There has been a pause in global capital flows to the US, reflecting the uncertain macroeconomic backdrop, with policy plans, announcements and reversals. Other regions, or at least specific markets, stand to benefit. 4. Relating to the slide below, there was lots of discourse about the wider real assets environment and the crossover and relationship between real estate and infrastructure. Data centres for example are digital infrastructure. There is lots of demand for infra assets, though lack of skills or knowledge can hold back full advance into the sector. 5. Expect growth in the importance of city mayors and governments and more close partnerships between public and private money to redevelop struggling assets, submarkets and cities. [Something we've written about a couple of times over the last year or two, esp. in the US].

When the official data series lets you down, create your own. Well-documented problems with the ONS’ Labour Force Survey prompted our economists to build a proprietary read of what’s happening to UK jobs growth. The CE UK Employment Indicator draws on a variety of monthly measures to give clients a forward-looking, single source of truth about how UK jobs growth is performing. In introducing the Indicator, UK Economist Alex Kerr explains how its latest reading is “consistent with our view that the Bank will continue to cut interest rates, but only gradually, from 4.50% now to 3.50% in the first half of 2026.” The CE UK Employment Indicator is the latest data tool from Capital Economics that helps our clients make more informed investment decisions. It’s one of a growing range of tools available as part of our all-access subscription packages. If you’re not already a Capital Economics subscriber, you can register now to read Alex’s analysis about what our Indicator says about the UK employment outlook: https://lnkd.in/eZjey7Ki

The Trump administration sees China’s presence in Latin America as a strategic threat, raising questions about the future of Chinese activity across the region. Amid signs that the White House is pursuing a modern-day Monroe Doctrine, this new, interactive report from Capital Economics explores the present and future of the complex economic, financial and institutional linkages between China and Latin America.  If you aren't already a Capital Economics subscriber, you can register here to read this report now: https://lnkd.in/eBJMDxBg

A ‘Special Action Plan’ sounds enticing, but the Chinese government’s latest announcement of measures to get consumers spending is critically short on detail and likely doesn't signal a major policy shift. Our China team's analysis is featured in the latest edition of Bloomberg's Points of Return newsletter: https://lnkd.in/ePgBJdDp If you're not already a Capital Economics subscriber, you can register here to read our analysis of the China Action Plan: https://lnkd.in/eRFV8BP9

Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing was on CNN on 14th March to discuss how policy uncertainty and looming tariffs are denting consumer confidence, risking a self-inflicted US economic downturn. But is it going to last? Our latest report explores the key factors behind current volatility and why a rebound could be on the horizon. Read the full analysis: https://lnkd.in/eW4wTmDv #FinancialMarkets #USconsumer #tariffs #USeconomy

The pandemic has been the biggest driver of relative returns in commercial real estate over the past five years – and will remain so into the 2030s. Our CRE team is marking the fifth anniversary of the COVID’s outbreak with an in-depth stream of analysis and forecasting around supply-demand dynamics across major US, UK and European sectors in the coming five years and beyond. The body of work is called ‘Covid five years on – how the pandemic continues to shape real estate’ (https://lnkd.in/gZRSG6A2) and is designed to help clients identify market opportunity and mitigate risk in the pandemic's wake. The work goes beyond written analysis to include client roundtables, online briefings, interactive data tools and more. Key publications so far include: US office inventory to shrink further by 2030 https://lnkd.in/giiPmmpD Are UK and US households still keen to pay more for living space? https://lnkd.in/g5eTJCJE Industrial’s pandemic-era boom over; steady demand ahead https://lnkd.in/gReWsPJA Retail is back, but online will remain a drag into the 2030s https://lnkd.in/g5GCcfcD Learn more about our work on real estate markets in the coming five years here: https://lnkd.in/gZRSG6A2

Chief Global Economist Jennifer McKeown appeared on Bloomberg Television on 13th March to discuss the economic impact of Donald Trump’s policy agenda, including how US consumers are responding to the noise around tariffs and the implications of federal layoffs for employment.  #tariffs #USconsumers #USeconomy

My latest: Two cheers for Germany's fiscal reform. The agreement by Germany’s likely next coalition partners to reform the country’s strict fiscal rules is fundamentally good news. It will loosen the fiscal straitjacket that has weighed on the economy over the past decade or so, and the additional spending is focused on areas of greatest need and strategic importance. But... the associated boost to economic growth in Germany may be a bit smaller than many now seem to expect, may take some time to arrive, and is unlikely to be replicated to the same extent across other euro-zone countries. More here: https://lnkd.in/e2BJWuYA