Every Founder, “This is a trillion dollar total addressable market (TAM).”
“If only we can capture 1% of trillion dollar market, We’re going TO BE RICH!”
This is called "1% Market Fallacy" that hold most of the startups back. Why? 👇
Most of the founder follow this thinking flow:
1. Pick a large and established software market e.g. back-up, anti-virus or customer relationship management (CRM) software.
2. Write a new product for that market.
3. Get 1% of the market.
4. Retire to your own island.
These markets are massive. The CRM market alone is estimated at around $18 billion per year. 1% of that is $180 million. How hard can it be to get one measly percent of a market?
Except of course, it doesn’t work, unless you have massive amounts of funding or a brilliant idea that can completely disrupt the existing the market. Even then, you probably still need a fair amount of luck. Why? 🤐
The CRM software market is tough, with big players having large budgets and strong teams. Getting noticed on Google for a common search term like "CRM software" is almost impossible. Established companies enjoy network effects, including consultants, training, forums, and products, making it challenging for newcomers. 🤕
The exact number of companies selling CRM solutions is unclear, but the market is highly competitive.
Even in a niche like seating plan software, there are numerous competitors—over 100 with overlapping functionality. The chances of becoming the 13th biggest CRM solution from scratch are slim, given the vast number of existing products, likely exceeding a thousand.
Conversion rates from customer visits to sales typically hover around 1%. This means reaching a 1% market share requires attracting nearly the entire market to your website— a daunting task.
Creating and growing a new market is an option, but it comes with high expenses and risks. ☠
For small software companies, focusing on a niche market with a realistic shot at a top-ten Google ranking for key search terms is advisable.
Targeting a specific segment within a larger market, such as a CRM solution for companies trading on eBay in the Spanish-speaking market, can be a strategic approach.
Whatever you do, don’t stand in front of investors and pitch them the 1% fallacy. It makes you look an idiot. 😵
Recently, I have shared detailed writeup on - "How founder should think about calculating Market size?" in the Venture Curator newsletter.
You can check out here: https://lnkd.in/dM4W-nz3
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