Academy Securities’ Post

Some politicians and analysts are framing the rocket attacks on Israel under the guise of the historical Palestinian-Israeli conflict. I’ll explain why this isn’t the case and also why this plays into Iran's hand. The historical conflict between Israel and Palestine is a long standing toxic 78-year-old conflict mired in provocation and retaliation. Iran is counting on you to focus on this conflict, to further drive a wedge between Arab states and Israel. A senior Hamas leader was arrested a week before the attacks. To nobody’s surprise, Hamas retaliated. It was anticipated. It's predictable and not out of the ordinary in this context. The timing is quite strange though. In an unprecedented turn of events, Israel and SA were making progress in discussions to normalize relations. Their existential security was being threatened by a mutual adversary, Iran. This is an existential conflict. Israel has nuclear weapons. SA needs nuclear weapons. Iran wants nuclear weapons. The timing of the attacks and their surprise nature is suspicious. It is very reasonable to conclude that this attack benefitted Iran more than anybody else and framing it under the guise of this historical conflict plays into Iran's hand. Israel and SA were discussing the Palestinian issue at the time of the attacks. Since 2020, a number of Arab states have recognized Israel, but SA would be the cherry on top and a serious blow to Iran. Do you still think this is about the Palestinian-Israeli conflict? What was the surprise then? It was the scale, coordination, advanced weaponry, and success of the attack. Israel, the mightiest military in the Middle East, and a formidable strategic adversary to Iran in one of the most contentious places on earth, was caught by surprise only in this regard. It was expecting the usual retaliatory rocket attacks by Hamas but it got Iran’s proxy instead. All of this is happening in the background of the 2024 elections and far right movements also seeking legitimacy through elections in the United States, Israel, and Europe. In Israel, citizens are being forced to swallow a judicial reform law that would alter the fabric of their democracy and could determine the course of this conflict. Wouldn’t it be great for Iran if it could stop Israel and the Arab states from working together to balance its power in the region? Iran is counting on you to share your unfiltered thoughts, opinions, and feelings about the historical Palestinian-Israeli conflict on social media, where public opinion is shaped. Iran will target Arabs and Jews to drive a wedge between the states. It will co-opt Palestinian, and far right voices to influence your feelings and the way you vote. It wants you to drive a wedge in your own social media networks by making this about the historical Palestinian-Israeli conflict. This is the bigger analytical picture.

A fierce battle for Ukrainian resources is underway. The Russian invasion of #Ukraine has exacerbated the clan struggle and the redistribution of assets among the Ukrainian oligarchic groups. However, the #oligarchs are not alone. Ukraine is dependent on arms supply and financial subsidies that are not exactly gratuitous. Influential families of Britain, America, and Europe, along with the multinational corporations and political institutions supporting Ukraine — all the while staying on the side lines — use oligarchs and their networks in the struggle for assets and power in the region. Who is actually behind the conflict of the Ukrainian oligarchs?   The answer is coming soon in our new investigation. https://lnkd.in/d_CTv58g

why #Iran is a geopolitical challenge and a vital test for the EuropeanUnion’s foreign policy. One year on: read Cornelius Adebahr: How to deal with #Iran is no longer a question of—take your pick—nuclear non-proliferation, human rights, or trade ties alone. It relates to how the EU sees itself in midst of a changing global landscape. https://lnkd.in/detYbeQH.

Welcome to another special edition of EPM, where we provide a deepdive analysis of the Iranian attack on Israel over the weekend. Amidst a significant amount of hyperbole, we are here to provide you the facts, and help you make sense of them, to enable clear eyes assessment of how things are likely to develop and what this will mean for global markets, not in the least the oil markets. https://lnkd.in/gzh2JeKD #energy #energysecurity #energygeopolitics #geopolitics #politics #money #energypoliticsmoney #energyequity #EPM

Welcome to another special edition of EPM, where we provide a deepdive analysis of the Iranian attack on Israel over the weekend. Amidst a significant amount of hyperbole, we are here to provide you the facts, and help you make sense of them, to enable clear eyes assessment of how things are likely to develop and what this will mean for global markets, not in the least the oil markets. https://lnkd.in/gvnk6siw #energy #energysecurity #energygeopolitics #geopolitics #politics #money #energypoliticsmoney #energyequity #EPM

Carnegie Connects: The Biden Administration and Iran: Where is US Policy Headed? Carnegie Endowment 28 Sept 2023 Relations between Iran and the United States remain fraught. A period of de-escalation has been ushered in by Iran’s release of five American hostages in exchange for five Iranian nationals and the unfreezing of around $6 billion of Iranian assets that Tehran can now access only for food and humanitarian aid. On a separate track, through indirect negotiations, the United States and Iran reached a series of informal understandings to defuse tensions, including limits for Iran on some nuclear enrichment activities. But the underlying tensions driven by Iran’s nuclear program, its brutal repression of its own peacefully protesting citizens, and its support for Russia’s war against Ukraine remain unresolved. What is the Biden administration’s approach to Iran? How will domestic politics and the upcoming U.S. presidential election shape it? And what are the possibilities for a broader agreement between Washington and Tehran on the nuclear issue and other key points of contention? Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with two of Washington’s finest analysts of Iran.

The South African government (ANC) is bringing Israel before the International Court of Justice. The United States government (Biden administration) is funding the (perpetual) UN Council of Inquiry against Israel and helped the Islamic Republic of Iran regain its UN voting privileges. Israel’s enemies come in many forms. Always have. Psalm 2, Psalm 83 ARTICLE EXCERPT (January 2022) Given the revealed nature and purpose of the Council of Inquiry, an obvious question must be asked. Why is the Biden administration funding a Council of Inquiry against Israel at the United Nations? Another question must be, why is the Biden administration assisting Iran in regaining its UN voting rights just as the COI is underway? As the Associated Press reports: "Using Iranian bank funds freed from American sanctions, South Korea has paid Iran's $18 million in delinquent dues owed to the United Nations, Seoul said Sunday. The step was apparently approved by Washington to restore Tehran's suspended voting rights at the world body. "The South Korean Foreign Ministry said Seoul had paid the sum using Iranian assets frozen in the country after consulting with the United States Treasury — a potential signal of flexibility amid floundering nuclear negotiations." https://lnkd.in/erfUtUzS

Figuring out what happens with Russian and foreign assets in Russia and Putin works on creating new elites. In the absence of foreign investors, lucrative assets in Russia can be given for safekeeping to anyone who is “one of us.” Those people will personally owe their wealth to Putin, making them directly dependent on the Kremlin to preserve that wealth. The calculation, therefore, is simple: when Putinism encounters a crisis, these new asset owners will come out to defend their property—and in doing so, save the regime. https://lnkd.in/ehaWeXMz

I'm thrilled to announce the publication of my latest work about #energy relations with #Russia in time of war! 📚 It's been an incredible journey bringing this article to fruition, and I'm eager to share it with you all. As AFC/Compliance experts, we tend sometimes to focus on very specific matters, but we must also keep an eye on the broader geopolitical and strategic context that we all have to deal with. This is why, in light of the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war, I decided to write on the journal "Comparativ" about the energy relations between #Hungary and #Slovakia with Putin's Russia. It's a grey area in which sanctions intersect very much with domestic #politics and #geopolitics. Check out more here https://lnkd.in/erJfEnva

Founded in 1968 in the aftermath of the 1962 Sino-Indian War, the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) was established to counter threats from China and Pakistan. Over the years, its role has broadened, with its intelligence increasingly shaping India’s foreign policy decisions. Similar to the CIA in the US and Mossad in Israel, senior RAW officials report directly to the nation's top leaders. Former RAW chiefs and independent experts assert that the agency has played a critical role in key moments of India's history, such as the creation of Bangladesh in 1971 under Prime Minister Indira Gandhi and the development of India’s indigenous nuclear program. As India’s global influence increases, it will be essential to strengthen these capabilities to tackle both current and future challenges.