Alan Nasif’s Post

Israel should remember that the key to improving the strategic balance vis-à-vis Iran does not lie in specific military and intelligence operations, as successful and impressive as they may be, but in formulating and implementing an overall regional strategy https://lnkd.in/g8MdGszw

📢🧾 Comment from the official representative of the Russian Investigative Committee (S. Petrenko) on the Crocus City Hall attack. 🎯 Geopolitical implications Situation The official Telegram account of the Russian Investigative Committee has recently published a video in which claims are made that the study conducted on the mobile phones utilized by the perpetrators of the Crocus attack "may indicate a connection between the terrorist act committed and the conduct of a special military operation". Hints are made towards an Ukrainian involvement. Assessment This is one of the first official statements in which a correlation between Ukrainian forces and the Crocus attack is being made, and justified by the results of a technical examination of evidence (i.e. the alleged perpetrators' mobile phones). Hypotheses 1. Russia will intensify its military operations in Ukraine as a result of their assessment that Ukraine has orchestrated the Crocus attack. 2. Ukraine and NATO will deny the Russian allegations and will claim that the potential Russian intensification of its military operations is unjustified. This 2nd hypothesis will offer Ukraine and NATO an avenue to justify: ♦ the need for more military aid to Ukraine ♦ a more open conflict between NATO and Russia 3. This new Russian claim will not affect the ongoing conflict on the ground. PS: Those interested in the official text of the statement, drop a message and I'll share it. #Russia #Ukraine #NATO #Crocus #geopolitics #conflict

"Iran is well known for its “networks of influence” throughout the Middle East. It has developed proxy relationships with a wide range of groups across the region, including in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Bahrain... While some militia groups depend on Iranian support to survive, others would continue to pursue their objectives, albeit with diminished resources, if Tehran ceased its assistance. Hamas falls into the latter category. It is not an Iranian proxy, but rather an ally of convenience, with a shared common enemy in Israel. As a Sunni Muslim group, Hamas differs from the usual Shi’a militias that Iran supports. Iran and Hamas do not share a political or religious ideology. Yet, the relationship is mutually beneficial. For Iran, a strong Hamas destabilizes Israel and ensures the continuance of its blockade of Gaza, which in turn diminishes Israel’s standing on the international stage. For Hamas, Iran has provided a steady flow of weapons, funding, and military training, which undoubtedly facilitated the group’s military operations, including its recent attack on Israel." - Jenny Maddocks, Assistant Professor in the Department of Law at the United States Military Academy at West Point Lieber Institute for Law and Warfare National Security Agency U.S. Department of State United States Department of Defense USSOCOM United Nations #nsa #dos #dod #usma #socom #un

Dear MEPIN Readers, - How will the massive ballistic and cruise missile attack against Israel from Iran affect the timing of Israel’s next war in the north with Hezbollah?  - Will America stand with Israel on its northern Iranian frontier if Israel attacks Rafah?  - How will Biden’s contempt for Netanyahu influence US decisions in the region? - What are Israel’s unique military challenges in the north? To learn more, read my article in the Jerusalem Report, the magazine of the Jerusalem Post. https://bit.ly/4dlTQnX

NEW: ''Iran’s warning that Israel faces “punishment” over its suspected killing of senior Iranian commanders in Syria has triggered a clear Israeli response: any operation launched from Iran will be met with action inside Iran. Meanwhile, US President Joe Biden has reiterated his “ironclad” support for Israel as Washington is reportedly pushing Arab states to urge Iran to de-escalate tensions. The intensifying war of words also comes amid western warnings of an “imminent” attack on Israel—and indications of psychological warfare being stepped up. Late on Apr. 10, an Iranian news agency cited the country’s defense minister as saying that Tehran’s airspace would be shut down for sudden “military drills.” However, after being picked up by western outlets, the story was taken down without explanation. Speaking on condition of anonymity, a Washington-based political insider said there is buzz in DC about an attack, but also Hill staff who question the veracity of the many rumors. "They seemed less alarmed and wondered if this is hype to reduce pressure on Biden to cut aid to Israel," referring to the stalled additional 14B USD in assistance to Tel Aviv that is stuck in Congress. Preferring that his name be withheld, an Iranian diplomatic source told Amwaj.media that he “doubts if anybody except for a few actually know” about the “punishment” for the Apr. 1 bombing of a consular annex to Iran’s embassy in Damascus. Acknowledging rumors in Tehran of the occupied Golan Heights being a prime target, the source said that “an answer is coming” and that he “personally” believes that “it will be a limited but precise” strike. The source qualified his assessment by emphasizing that “these are all guesses.” Via Amwaj.media #iran #syria #israel #irgc #golanheights #security

The Insider recorded a 30-minute interview with Mansur Samashinskiy, the deputy commander of the Sheikh Mansur Battalion that is fighting on the side of Ukraine (This unit should not be confused with the pro-Kadyrov Sheikh Mansur Battalion, which is subordinate to the Russian Ministry of Defence). Mansur discusses the group’s experience and operations in Kursk Oblast and the Ukraine conflict more broadly. He says his unit does not seek out Kadyrov’s Akhmat units, who he claims are in any case far from the front lines; Spetsnaz Akhmat commander Apti Alaudinov is dismissed as a mere “blogger” and self-publicist. He also claims that some Akhmat fighters are not participating in the conflict voluntarily. Mansur rejects any suggestion of belonging to a “Russian” (rossiyskiy) national identity, instead claiming a Chechen/Ichkerian one. When asked about the group’s goals, he says they are not focused on Kadyrov or his system, portraying him as a Kremlin puppet; instead, he emphasises that they are defending themselves and Ukraine. Mansur also expresses his desire to return home, but only if Chechnya were free from the Russian empire. #Ukraine #Chechnya #Russia If you’re interested in more stories like this, I publish a newsletter providing news and analysis on terrorism & insurgency, PMCs, and state-linked security services in Russia. Sign up via my website (see profile).

On the evening of September 27th, 2024, #israel 🇮🇱 airstrike killed #hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, marking a significant escalation in the ongoing Israel-Hezbollah conflict and highlighting the effectiveness of Israeli #intelligence operations. #nasrallah’s death has resulted in a temporary leadership void within Hezbollah, raising strategic concerns not only in #lebanon 🇱🇧 but also across the broader region, particularly in relation to potential retaliatory actions from Iran and its allied militias. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has characterised the strikes as a notable success; however, Israel’s actions, particularly in #gaza 🇵🇸, continue to provoke substantial controversy. Concurrently, #geopoliticalrisk in the #middleeast 🌍 has intensified, with Iranian proxies, including the #houthi in #yemen 🇾🇪and #iraq 🇮🇶 militias, issuing renewed threats against Israel and its allies. #specialeurasia #geopolitics #military #foreignaffairs #riskassessment #intelligence #report #geopoliticalintelligence

US needs at least part of Ukraine as anti-Russian territory — top security official "In this regard, the goal of demilitarization of Ukraine remains relevant," Nikolay Patrushev underscored MOSCOW, April 2/ The goal of demilitarization of Ukraine remains relevant, because the US and NATO, which effectively take part in the conflict, see this country as a controlled anti-Russian territory, Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolay Patrushev said in an interview with aif.ru. "The US and NATO plans include preservation of Ukraine, or at least a part of it, as a completely controlled anti-Russian territory, totally shaped to serve the interests of the North Atlantic bloc," Patrushev said. "The North Atlantic alliance is de facto a side to the Ukrainian conflict." "In this regard, the goal of demilitarization of Ukraine remains relevant," he underscored. #business #finance #financialservices

#thoughtleadership - Credibility : A two horse race! IMHO & perhaps I'm mistaken... credibility is the Congruence of words & actions. • Either you assist others and are therefore complicit... or, you refuse any part in the given situation. Regrettably Cyprus is an enabler for western military aircraft. in assisting Israel the UK, France and others were directly complicit and painted targets on their citizens backs. Cyprus by allowing its territory to be a staging post is indirectly complicit. IMHO you cant be both arsonist and fire fighter... you are one or other which is why many have issue in the mixed messaging. • Providing arms and assistance to Israel on the one hand... yet being pedestrian & paralysed in regards Palastinian civilian lives, humanitarian aid and holding Israel to account!🙈 #besafe #ceos #leadership #business #strategy #riskmanagement #journalism #europeanunion #europeanparliament #personaldevelopment #UN #NATO European Leadership European Commission SkyNews Inc Skynewsuk.com The Guardian #travel #health #nhs #tourism #hospitality #aviation