This week's Global Credit Bullets ➠ https://lnkd.in/eQPVQAFp : In the US, Friday’s job data surprised strongly to the upside, as 256k new jobs were added versus a 165k forecast. Also, a glimpse into policy under Trump and UK Treasuries.
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US job growth less than initially estimated. Economists from Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo believe the government's preliminary job growth revisions could be anywhere from 600,000 to 1MM lower than earlier reported. If this is the case, this downward revision in employment would be the largest in 1.5 decades, suggesting the labor market is weaker than we think. With this kind of talk floating around Wall Street, it is bound to be a consideration in the Fed Committee round table this week in Jackson Hole, WY, as they address rate cut timing. If the anticipated job growth revision is as substantial as suggested, it would imply that the employment market was weaker than perceived in the past months. This could potentially reignite discussions about a possible downturn in the economy and stir up the market as we experienced earlier this month after lower job numbers were reported. The DRL Group is uniquely qualified to assist our clients in navigating the fixed income market. Call us today, for a complimentary assessment of your bond portfolio and let us put our expertise to work for you. You can reach out to us at (281) 398-8600 or sign up for our weekly Market News & Commentary at https://lnkd.in/gpRtZPMv
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US job growth less than initially estimated. Economists from Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo believe the government's preliminary job growth revisions could be anywhere from 600,000 to 1MM lower than earlier reported. If this is the case, this downward revision in employment would be the largest in 1.5 decades, suggesting the labor market is weaker than we think. With this kind of talk floating around Wall Street, it is bound to be a consideration in the Fed Committee round table this week in Jackson Hole, WY, as they address rate cut timing. If the anticipated job growth revision is as substantial as suggested, it would imply that the employment market was weaker than perceived in the past months. This could potentially reignite discussions about a possible downturn in the economy and stir up the market as we experienced earlier this month after lower job numbers were reported. The DRL Group is uniquely qualified to assist our clients in navigating the fixed income market. Call us today, for a complimentary assessment of your bond portfolio and let us put our expertise to work for you. You can reach out to us at (281) 398-8600 or sign up for our weekly Market News & Commentary at https://lnkd.in/gpRtZPMv
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Encouraging weekly job reports help stabilize frenzied markets Here are the top capital markets takeaways from the past week: – Initial jobless claims fell from 250,000 to 233,000, easing concerns after weak labor data shook markets the previous week. – The 10-year Treasury yield settled below 4.00% after a volatile week driven by economic data and global rate changes. – Investor credit spreads tightened towards the week's end as markets found some stability. For the complete expert breakdown of the latest BWE capital markets news and updates, visit our capital markets weekly digest at bwe.com/capital-markets #BWE #capitalmarkets
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Encouraging weekly job reports help stabilize frenzied markets Here are the top capital markets takeaways from the past week: – Initial jobless claims fell from 250,000 to 233,000, easing concerns after weak labor data shook markets the previous week. – The 10-year Treasury yield settled below 4.00% after a volatile week driven by economic data and global rate changes. – Investor credit spreads tightened towards the week's end as markets found some stability. For the complete expert breakdown of the latest BWE capital markets news and updates, visit our capital markets weekly digest at bwe.com/capital-markets #BWE #capitalmarkets
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Encouraging weekly job reports help stabilize frenzied markets Here are the top capital markets takeaways from the past week: – Initial jobless claims fell from 250,000 to 233,000, easing concerns after weak labor data shook markets the previous week. – The 10-year Treasury yield settled below 4.00% after a volatile week driven by economic data and global rate changes. – Investor credit spreads tightened towards the week's end as markets found some stability. For the complete expert breakdown of the latest BWE capital markets news and updates, visit our capital markets weekly digest at bwe.com/capital-markets #BWE #capitalmarkets
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US job news helps lift markets after tough April. Read the latest markets update across the 🌍 and week here: https://lnkd.in/e3TFSdwH #financialknowledge #financialmarkets #financialoutlook #stockmarket #stocksmarkets #financialwellness
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"Americans are increasingly worried about losing their jobs" "...a worrying sign at a moment when economists and central bankers are warily monitoring for cracks in the job market." Says the Federal Reserve Bank of NY in a report released today. "The expected likelihood of becoming unemployed rose to 4.4 percent on average, up from 3.9 percent a year earlier and the highest in data going back to 2014." We've seen all the signs that this is coming. And I've got so many questions and, unfortunately, not the time to download their microdata and analyze. Namely, how is this sentiment distributed over age groups (#generations)? I'd speculate that it's not evenly distributed. And coming from older workers more than younger. Why? One reason is that delinquency expectations also increased. The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months increasing to over 13%. Yes, The Fed's policy this week might slightly change things. This isn't about any one-time interest-rate change, though. The employment market has been on a roller coaster ride for the past few years. We're dealing with a new reality triggered by pandemic-era changes. As I've said before, buckle up. #hiring #recruiting #jobsearch #jobmarket #employment #employmentmarket #labormarket #economy https://lnkd.in/eumx9FdN
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A relevant FYI for many on Linked in… The US economy is coming out of a once-in-a-generation red hot job market that has persisted since 2021. Much like the dynamic of any market, extreme highs are not sustainable, although the job market as a whole is still in a good place; perhaps more sustainable. I advise putting more stock in the data than in anecdotes. https://lnkd.in/gMb4NhPk
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I reached my trading target today as I post in morning! Sticking to my plan really paid off. I was keeping an eye on the U.S. JOLTS Job Openings report. The number came in at 7.67M, which was lower than expected (8.09M) and last month's (7.91M). This could mean the job market in the U.S. is slowing down, which might affect the value of the USD. It’s a great reminder of how important it is to stay informed and adapt to market changes. On to the next goal! 🚀 #TradingTips #ForexTrading #USDAnalysis #FinancialMarkets #InvestmentStrategy #EconomicUpdate #MarketTrends #GoalSetting #SuccessStory #blackrock
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Treasury Search - August Market Update I hope you are well? August was actually ok! Roles started to come out, the back-to-school fever spread and businesses seem keen to add headcount! September suggests it has the possibility to be busy, which is a welcome relief after a tough summer. A lot of companies have continued to recruit themselves in the first instance this year, with some doing it brilliantly while others have struggled but continued to refuse to go externally. This approach has often resulted in some roles taking over 4 months to fill. While the recruitment industry understands the need to reduce costs, one does feel the balance is not always correct in terms of cost vs time and need. Candidates remain available and keen to move as has been the theme this year. So not a huge issue on that side in terms of resourcing for roles unless it’s a very niche skill set needed. As always, if you need any help with recruitment or market information do get in contact. Neil
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