Ali Adili’s Post

#Somalia🇸🇴's #Somaliland strategy under President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud faces challenges despite initial successes in fostering regional relations. His policy of maintaining excellent relations with neighbors led to significant achievements, including trade and security agreements with #Ethiopia🇪🇹 and Somaliland. However, Ethiopian ambitions for Red Sea access and the controversial Ethiopia-Somaliland MoU in January strained these relations. Somalia's firm initial response included expelling the Ethiopian ambassador and issuing ultimatums, but this approach faltered. Predictable reactions from Puntland and other states, dependent on Ethiopian support against #AlShabaab, exacerbated tensions. Somalia's subsequent reversal of its decision for Ethiopian troop withdrawal by December 2024 highlighted its strategic inconsistency and perceived weakness.

The people of Afghanistan need a recognized and inclusive political opposition group that brings together the many various factions. Without it, the Taliban and Haqqani terror regime will continue to easily glide towards recognition by the international community. When nations tell you they won’t back an armed resistance to the Taliban, but they are looking for a political entity to engage with besides the terror regime…take the chance. With zoom and other global communication platforms, forming a political opposition council is possible. Diplomats are saying they talk to the Taliban because there are too many separate little groups of Afghans to meet with. Afghans are giving diplomats an easy excuse for them to continue to engage with the terrorists. Speed up the political process or watch the Taliban get recognized by the international community. This is the choice. Your grandchildren won’t be impressed by your excuses for not unifying to politically oppose the terror regime. The various small armed groups will not make any impact on the recognition process. And after recognition, those armed groups will be seen as terrorists. Time is still on the side of the terrorists #afghanistan

The recent tightening in an #Afghanistan of the rules regulating the life of women in the country has further erased their few remaining rights. Media outlets and observers the world over have once more accused the West of looking away, while at the same time, the #Taliban have denounced the “arrogance” of the West in condemning the restrictions. But international condemnation no longer seems to have any effect and the so called “West”, accused of indifference when it stays away and of interference if it intervenes, cannot and should not be the only driving force of change. The time has come for those countries engaging with the Afghan regime to finally do their part. Countries like the #UAE, that have links with the government in Kabul, champion women’s rights back home and share the same religion but not the same restrictive views, would be well positioned to put pressure on the regime to end the gender apartheid they enacted in Afghanistan. https://lnkd.in/eYuuMH6p

Pakistan Wins Non-Permanent Seat on UNSC with a Significant Majority in UNGA Vote https://lnkd.in/gABUy8hh Pakistan secured 182 out of 193 votes in the General Assembly, surpassing the required 124 votes. The announcement of the five non-permanent seats, including Pakistan, Denmark, Greece, Panama, and Somalia, replacing Japan, Ecuador, Malta, Mozambique, and Switzerland, was met with applause. Pakistan will take over Japan's Asian seat on January 1, 2025, for a two-year term, marking its eighth term.Munir Akram, Pakistan’s UN representative, highlighted Pakistan’s commitment to promoting the UN Charter's principles. Pakistan aims to work with other council members to prevent conflicts and contribute to peaceful settlements. Pakistan's past terms on the council include 2012-13, 2003-04, 1993-94, 1983-84, 1976-77, 1968-69, and 1952-53. Pakistan joins the UNSC during a time of global challenges and plans to focus on peace and security in South Asia, self-determination for Palestine and Kashmir, normalization in Afghanistan, equitable solutions to African security challenges, and enhancing UN peacekeeping operations. Pakistan has been a significant contributor to UN peacekeeping missions for over 50 years,...

#Somalia's inconsistent #Somaliland strategy suffers another blow Phase 1 of Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's #Ethiopia and even Somaliland policy reaped many fruits - too many, as it turned out, to be entirely sincere. His policy of "zero enemy outside" meant first and foremost to maintain excellent relations with all neighbours. This translated into a number of achievements, and culminated with a Somali-Ethiopian trade agreement last September and a Somalia-Somaliland security agreement last December. This was without counting on the Ethiopian PM's impatience for #RedSea access, which translated last summer in threats of war - although mainly directed at Eritrea. A 2022 agreement on access to the Somali port of Gara'ad has not helped. The situation worsened abruptly with the signature of the infamous Ethiopia-Somaliland MoU on 1 January. The Somali response had initially been exceptionally firm and her position strong on all accounts. Somaliland was uniquely weakened to begin with, including on account of #SSCKhatumo's secession last August. The MoU also weakened #Awdal's loyalty. All of Somalia's partners and major international organizations sided with Mogadiscio, including Ethiopia's all-weather partner China. Ethiopia seemed to hesitate. For the past 10 weeks however, Somalia's strategy has become haphazard, as if she was bent on sabotaging her own position on an interest deemed vital. Hassan Sheikh, who was elected on the promise to finalize the constitution, has chosen this most delicate time to put his plan in motion. Ethiopia's and #Puntland's reactions - the latter immediately "seceded" - were entirely predictable. The Somali government immediately proceeded to expel the Ethiopian ambassador, now relying on inefficient mediation. It further issued an unenforceable ultimatum to close Ethiopia's consulates in Hargeisa (Somaliland) and Garowe (Puntland). This naturally triggered a show of defiance. Rumors of elevating Ethiopia's consulate in Hargeisa to embassy status seem to be substantiated. Somalia then surprised observers by announcing a rather mild decision in an inflammatory manner, which led many to describe it as yet another "ultimatum". It had been in fact only the logical consequence of the end of #ATMIS' mandate and of the obvious lack of a bilateral agreement on Ethiopia's continued military intervention from 2025 onward that Ethiopian troops should leave by December 2024. Again, it triggered natural reactions from Southwest and Jubaland states, which have not only been described as Ethiopia's "client states" but are also heavily dependent on Ethiopia's continued involvement to keep Al #Shabaab (AS) at bay. It would have been also unlikely that Ethiopia accepts the new situation when AS is now openly operating within her own borders. But Mogadiscio didn't even allow for Addis Ababa to take a stand. It instead immediately reversed the decision, signaling weakness. Yet again.

The red line, dictating whether the UAE will keep its pro-Israel foreign policy, is approaching quickly. Placing the UAE government in a difficult dilemma. Will it maintain its diplomatic corridor with Israel to contain the threat of Iran's expansionist ambitions? Or will it cut all ties with Israel, worsening its shaky relationship with the US, to lean into the multipolar, Eurasian alliance led by Russia and China? With the UAE and Saudi Arabia being official members of BRICS as of January 1st of this year and the UAE growing increasingly dissatisfied with the sovereignty-hindering demands put forward by the United States for its comprehensive security guarantee, it is evident that Abu Dhabi seeks to move away from the Western shackles that come with American and European advanced weapons and defense systems. The war in Ukraine has dismantled the image of America's total technological superiority. American advanced weapon systems are not the trump cards they were thought to be. Recently, Russia has even been using North Korean ballistic missiles on the Ukrainian battlefields with moderate success against American and European anti-ballistic, missile systems. It would be a disservice to not mention Russia's own highly advanced 'Kinjal' missiles which have repeatedly destroyed critical military infrastructure; as of two days ago, a large UAV manufacturing facility in the heart of Kiev disguised as a large dome-shaped, metallic garage. The picture is clear, America is not the superpower it once was. The US Secertary of Defense, Lloyd Austin, and a number of highly positioned, elected American congressional officials have stated on record that the world as of today has dramatically shifted from being an American-led hegemony to a world consisting of three superpowers: China, Russia, and the United States. Four anonymous UAE government officials stated on November 11th 2023 in a exclusive Reuters written interview: "None of four sources ruled out that the UAE could downgrade or sever its ties if the crisis escalated. Sources said that the displacement of the Palestinian population from the Gaza Strip or the West Bank into Egypt or Jordan was a red line for Abu Dhabi." What are your thoughts on this? Comment down below!

July 2024 Report The war continues to cast a shadow over the situation in Sudan. Politically, regional efforts are ongoing to push the warring parties to the negotiating table in order to advance the stalled peace process. During July 2024, indirect negotiating sessions were held between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces in Geneva, Switzerland, under the auspices of the United Nations. The United States called on the parties to further negotiations in Geneva in mid-August 2024. The efforts of civil forces also continue in attempts to reach consensuses that contribute to stopping the war in Sudan, as Sudanese civil political forces held two meetings, during July 2024, in the cities of Cairo and Addis Ababa. Below is a report compiled by YCON relying on primary and secondary data gathered by its local observers distributed across all states of Sudan. It reflects on the social, economic, and political implications of war, in addition to the asylum and displacement movements, and the conditions of the displaced and refugees in camps, in the period from the beginning of June 27 2024 to July 26, 2024, as well as our recommendations - we, the youth - to help resolve the Sudanese crisis. Download and read the report in English: https://bit.ly/3SNR0PQ يمكنكم الاطلاع على التقرير باللغة العربية بتحميله من الرابط: https://bit.ly/3M4iVXZ #YCON #Sudan #KeepEyesOnSudan

📰 A great article from former Albany colleague Guy Gabriel on the current situation in #Sudan. The ongoing conflict there has left the nation devastated, with no resolution in sight. More than 8.8 million people are displaced, and up to 18 million face famine. Despite multiple diplomatic efforts, a unified peace process remains elusive, hindering the path to stability.   At Albany, we have consistently supported Sudan's journey towards peace and reconstruction since 2006. We commend the efforts of the Forces for Freedom and Change and other #civilsociety groups working towards a unified front for peace. The recent conference in Addis Ababa, which gathered diverse Sudanese voices, is a promising step towards #inclusive representation. By unifying diplomatic tracks and including genuine, representative Sudanese voices in peace negotiations, we can help lay the foundation for a stable, democratic Sudan, ensuring that all voices are heard and contributing to a brighter future for the nation. https://lnkd.in/eWfy6EMp

Hamas is looking for more human shield. Hamas Official Ali Baraka: "Lebanon should transfer Palestinian refugees to Israeli border, so that UNIFIL (United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon) will be responsible for them; If you want to liberate your land, you cannot keep counting martyrs – the families in Gaza are not complaining. We are martyrdom seekers." Their rationale is centered on the assumption that increasing the presence of Palestinians near the Israeli border will result in a higher likelihood of casualties, putting the pressure on UNIFIL. Hamas consistently reveals their disturbing priority – actively seeking to escalate the number of casualties among Palestinian civilians. Their statements are clear on this matter; why wouldn't we pay more attention? #lebanon #civilians #casualties #hamas #hamasterrorists #humanshields #statement #israel #un #unitednations #uk #us #advocacy_israel

The Tǎl!bǎn government began meetings on Sunday with United Nations officials as they attended talks in Doha with special envoys to the Central Asian country for the first time, a UN spokesperson said. The two-day meeting, hosted in Qatar is the third of its kind in little over a year but the first to include Tǎl!bǎn authorities who seized power in #Afghanistan in 2021. On the agenda are discussions to “fully integrate into the international community and… meets international obligations, including on human rights, particularly the rights of women and girls,” according to Aljazeera Media Initiatives | المبادرات الإعلامية. However, according to The Guardian, the Tǎl!bǎn “demand[ed] that no #Afghan women be allowed to participate in the UN meeting in Doha starting 30 June, set up to discuss the international community’s approach to Afghanistan, and that women’s rights are not on the agenda.” In a dazzling display of saying one thing and doing the opposite, Rosemary A. DiCarlo, a U.N. official for political and peacebuilding affairs, stated she “would like to emphasize that this meeting and this process of engagement does not mean normalization or recognition.” _____________ Admin Note: typing this post pīssēd me off, so I’ll keep my thoughts simple - bring our Afghan Allies home and füüċk the Tāl!bān. #foreignaffairs #foreignpolicy #saveoursllies #semperfidelis #nationalsecurity #genderstudies #feminism