Allianz X’s Post

A global financial revolution is happening.

This is certainly the white elephant in the room which myself as well as many other prominent economic minds in the world such as Elon Musk, and even Donald Trump have predicted would occur for some time now. I have been harping upon what "may occur" to the financial markets as well as the cryptocurrency markets even as far back as late January when I launched, www.go-go-go.world , that the value of the U.S. Dollar may be in imminent danger and peril due to a wide array of circumstances. Constant borrowing from China to keep the balance sheet of The United States of America barely afloat is certainly one of them, though the biggest reason of them all, once again, is that we are an incredibly divided Republic and Union socially, politically, economically, and extremely fragmented technologically not only here in the US and also the rest of the world with lingering legacy platforms dominating the technological landscape as far back as when many of us were learning how to type messaging each other on "AOL Instant Messenger" during our days at University in the mid to late 1990's. Yes, I am now getting old, but as I said before to the Gen Y and Z guys out there, no more jokes! I get it.. I need bifocals ASAP! All kidding aside, one more time guys, if we do not UNITE ourselves here in The United States of America and get past this irrelevant and insignificant red state vs blue, left vs red idiocy and nonsense that has been weaking us socially, politically, and certainly economically for decades the Credit Rating of The USA will be downgraded one more time early next year, and with that the USD will be replaced by the CNY as to which all other global currencies will be valued against. And should that happen, to put it in very plains words and to quote Dorothy from the Wizard of Oz... "Toto, I have a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore." For all of Infinity as we will never ever recover from that impending economic catastrophe, and we will drag the rest of the world down with us. We now have less than 3 months to go to get our acts together and UNITE! I believe we can do it, do you? 🌟 🌟 🌟 🌟 🌟 🌟 Go Go Go! 🌟 🌟 🌟 🌟 🌟 🌟 Link to Original Article from LinkedIn News Below - https://lnkd.in/e7FmTArW

An excerpt from our latest research paper, Don’t Just See, Observe: The End of Fiat Asset Inflation and the Bitcoin Moment, written by our President & CIO Jordi Visser. You can read and download the entire paper here: https://hubs.la/Q02dg0yh0 "As I said in another paper I wrote, you must embrace the art of unlearning. The ‘no business cycles’ concept can explain several economic phenomena. First, we have yield curves that have been inverted longer than any time in history. Second, the ISM has been in contraction for 13 consecutive months. Third, there’s the inflation that did not stay high for very long. And finally, the negative leading economic indicator readings, the fears over banks tightening lending standards, and so many charts used to call the hard landing have not been useful. This is an important note for hedge funds on this concept of no business cycles. Aside from skewing investment opportunities that usually offer the best risk-reward ratios after a recession, I think the biggest bubble we have right now in the market is in risk models. All risk models use historical data to strip out some hardcoded factors that are correlated to business cycles. In a new world where the pendulum shifts of factors are thematic and change every 4-12 weeks, you will see more turbulence in their effectiveness. I expect there to be a lot of alpha bleeding in the coming years due to a change in business cycles and due to the rise of AI ubiquity that came this year. Remember: garbage in, garbage out.... On the topic of these pendulum shifting factors driving market moves, this is where the final puzzle piece comes in for 2023, market breadth. As we exited 2022, I was positive on the stock market expecting this year to be about a broadening out of the market for several reasons. The Fed stopped its tightening, and China’s reopening led to commodities having a good year helping value and keeping a ceiling on any bounce in technology, specifically the US mega cap tech names for years to come. The stock market did surprise strongly on the upside this year, but all those other views were wrong. Excluding the Magnificent Seven mega-cap tech companies, the SPX was up slightly for the year. Small caps underperformed as market breadth was horrible.  The bullish narrative to explain the bad breadth was about the innovation in AI and although I have been a champion of AI and the efficiency benefits that will come, I do not agree that this is great for US mega cap tech companies in the long run. I see this year as a bounce off the 2022 tech collapse that has been based on hope of upcoming AI product-driven revenue gains for these names extending their global revenue moats. In this world of slower GDP with lower barriers to entry from AI and increasing regulatory scrutiny from other countries leading to more Mistral-like companies around the globe, this hope will run out next year." #AI #Bitcoin

From a bird’s eye view, 2023 saw a global realignment toward greater crypto regulatory policy, measured across several key jurisdictions. In light of such a seismic change in climate, industry leaders are being left with little choice but to start dressing for the weather. COMPASS Q4 2023: 5 Thoughts for the Crypto Space in ‘24 and Beyond explores the changing regulatory landscape in detail, and offers timely insight for new and experienced participants alike. Download COMPASS, and find your footing at the link below.

The Tools of Deception: How do monetary policies like the Discount Window subtly shape #crypto markets? My latest essay explores the interplay between traditional and emerging financial systems. https://lnkd.in/eZqEvk45

𝟏𝟕𝐭𝐡 𝐅𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐢𝐚𝐥 𝐑𝐢𝐬𝐤𝐬 𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐧𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐅𝐨𝐫𝐮𝐦 : 𝐄𝐱𝐩𝐥𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐠 "𝐁𝐢𝐠 𝐃𝐚𝐭𝐚 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐀𝐥𝐠𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐡𝐦𝐢𝐜 𝐅𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞" 📢 Focus on Christine Parlour‘s Keynote at #RisksForum 2024!   🎙 Keynote Speaker: Christine A. Parlour, Professor, Sylvan C. Coleman Chair at the Haas School, UC Berkeley and co-director of the Berkeley Center for Responsible Decentralized Intelligence. 📌 Theme: “Liquidity Fragmentation on Decentralized Exchanges”   👉 Don’t miss the session of Professor Christine A. Parlour, with a focus on institutionally complex areas like market microstructure and banking, her current work delves into changes in the payments system and their effects on bank balance sheets. A prolific author in major finance and economics journals, Professor Parlour is a recognized expert in market microstructure, limit order markets, #cryptocurrencies, #FinTech, and #paymentSystems. 🔎 Professor Parlour provides expert testimony on a range of institutionally complex topics involving financial markets, institutions, market manipulation, cryptocurrency, and regulation. She is the former president of the Western Finance Association and a former member of the Nasdaq Economic Advisory Board. She has also served as visiting economist at the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Get the opportunity to gain insights into liquidity fragmentation on decentralized exchanges from a distinguished finance expert! ➡️ https://lnkd.in/dRByv6v 🔗 Explore the detailed program and register now ➡️ https://lnkd.in/dRByv6v   📆 Save the date for the 17th Financial Risks International Forum, a collaboration between Institut Louis Bachelier, Fondation du Risque, Europlace Institute of Finance, and Louis Bachelier "Finance and Sustainable Growth" Laboratory. #RisksForum #Finance #BigData #LiquidityFragmentation #DecentralizedExchanges #KeynoteSpeaker #ChristineParlour #UCBerkeley #FinancialInnovation _________ Marie Brière, christian gourieroux, Jean-Michel Beacco - Scientific Committee:  Frederic Abergel, Laurent Clerc, Rama CONT, Michel Crouhy, Raphael Douady, Darrell Duffie, Nicole El Karoui, christian gourieroux, Roger Guesnerie, Alexander Herbertsson, Monique Jeanblanc, Jean-Paul Laurent, Guillaume Plantin, jean charles rochet, Olivier Scaillet, Bertrand Villeneuve. - Sponsors: Autorité des marchés financiers (AMF) – France, CNP Assurances, Euronext, Groupe Caisse des Dépôts, Groupe Crédit Agricole, ILB Data Lab, ILB ESG Lab, Lamarck Group, Ministère de l'Économie, des Finances et de la Relance, Natixis Corporate & Investment Banking, PLADIFES, SCOR, Société Générale, The Finance and Insurance Reloaded (FaIR).

In this article, we delve into the global financial landscape, observing the pivotal shifts that are shaping the way we perceive and store wealth. We discuss the rise and fall of economic empires, the changing world order, and the role of digital assets in a future that's being rewritten before our eyes. Read the full article here 👇

The ongoing 2024 session of the annual World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos has brought together leaders of global finance industry under one roof. The topic of cryptocurrencies is gaining major traction among speakers and attendees, with industry experts shading divided opinions around the niche and upcoming financial technology.

Celebrated New York Times bestselling author Steve Berry, brings us his 18th thriller featuring Cotton Malone in THE ATLAS MANEUVER. Check out a synopsis below. It’s one that must not be missed! In the waning months of World War II, Japan hid vast quantities of gold, and other stolen valuables, in boobytrapped underground caches all across the Philippines. By 1947 some of that loot was recovered, not by treasure hunters, but by the United States government, which told no one about the find. Instead, those assets were stamped classified, shipped to Europe, and secretly assimilated into something called the Black Eagle Trust. Present day. Retired Justice Department operative, Cotton Malone, is in Switzerland doing a favor for a friend. But what was supposed to be a simple operation turns violent, and Cotton is thrust into a war between the world’s oldest bank and the CIA, a battle that directly involves the Black Eagle Trust. He quickly discovers that everything hinges on a woman from his past, who suddenly reappears harboring a host of explosive secrets centering around bitcoin. The cryptocurrency is being quietly weaponized, readied for an assault on the world’s financial systems, a calculated move that will have devastating consequences. Cotton has no choice. He has to act. But at what cost? From the stolid banking halls of Luxembourg, to the secret vaults of Switzerland, and finally up into the treacherous mountains of southern Morocco, Cotton Malone will finally come face-to-face with the Atlas Maneuver.

Well, the market has crashed. But don't worry. Maybe you can trade the anti-bubble. We have seen such patterns in the market before. Here's an old blog post (from 2015) that describes an interesting theory put forth by Sornette in his book "Why Stock Markets Crash: Critical Events in Complex Financial Systems" https://lnkd.in/eFy-SiVX In this, Sornette postulates that we can detect market crashes by applying some fairly esoteric properties of the Renormalization Group transformation from theoretical physics. This is not too hard to implement, but you may find a lot of false positives. I used to be a quant working in portable alpha (BGI, then BLK), and this was a hobby of mine. It was hobby that eventually led me to develop the weightwatcher theory. https://lnkd.in/gbyyJey