Ascendo Resources’ Post

The job market is heating up again. The US economy added 254k jobs in September, well above expectations of 147K with unemployment falling to 4.1%, August payrolls were also revised up +17k to +159k, along with July being revised up +55k to +144k. Market expectations of deeper rate cuts are certainly being challenged as the bond market is now forecasting a 25 percent reduction rather than 50 at the next meeting #jobs #economy #fed #interestrates

The US economy LOST 192,000 jobs in Q3 2023, according to the BED report released by the BLS last week. BED data tracks quarterly changes in employment at all private businesses in the US economy. Meanwhile, US nonfarm payrolls data showed that the US labor market added 494,000 new jobs in Q3 2023. This is a WHOPPING 686,000 difference in job count over just one quarter. The BED data from the BLS suggests that the final labor market revisions released in 2025 will be MUCH lower than the headline-reported job numbers. What is happening here? (TKL)

The U.S. adds 142,000 jobs in August - missing estimates! This was a massive data release given the huge miss last month. The August payrolls figures missed estimates of 165,000. The last two months have also been revised down by -86,000. However, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.2% from 4.3% - in line with expectations. The market is now evenly split on a 25bp or 50bp cut by the Fed on the 18th.

The August employment data showed the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2%, as widely expected, but payrolls growth has slowed and a trend rise in the unemployment rate is still intact. Read the full report here.

Job growth in the U.S. slowed much more than expected during July and the unemployment rate ticked higher, fueling fears of a broader economic slowdown, the Labor Department reported Friday. Nonfarm payrolls grew by just 114,000 for the month, down from the downwardly revised 179,000 in June and below the Dow Jones estimate for 185,000. The unemployment rate edged higher to 4.3%, its highest since October 2021. Read more details from the report: cnb.cx/3YtEXuI

US July Jobs Report: increase of 114K, unemployment rate of 4.3% with average hourly earnings of 0.2% m/m & 3.6% y/y. 97K increase in private sector payrolls and a downward revision of 29K over the past two months. Those Fed cuts are definitely going to happen in September & the market has fully priced in 4 cuts through January 2025.

The US May labour market report contained mixed news for the Fed. Payrolls growth came in stronger than expected at +272k, a touch stronger than the estimated breakeven rate of +265k. Solid jobs growth continues to be fuelled by resilient demand and the strong immigration-led growth in labour market supply (see my last post). Employment was weaker in the household survey which saw the unemployment rate tick higher from 3.9% to 4.0%. The disappointment (for the Fed, not workers) came in wage growth which printed higher than expected at annual growth of 4.1%. At the same time, the Fed will be taking some encouragement from the recent sharper falls in labour demand as indicated in the Job Openings survey published earlier this week. All grist for the mill as the FOMC heads into next week’s rate setting meeting.

The U.S. economy continues to add jobs at a robust pace, according to a federal employment report today that exceeded the expectations of many analysts. Payrolls across the nation grew by 216,000 in December, according to the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics, up slightly from November’s report. For all of 2023, the American economy added 2.7 million jobs. At the same time, the federal agency said the U.S. jobless rate held at 3.7% in December. Gains were seen among government workers, and in health care and construction, with losses seen in transportation and warehousing. The federal report does not provide a state-by-state breakdown, but recent state data shows that payrolls in New Jersey grew by just 4,100 in November. The N.J. unemployment rate rose again, up one notch to 4.7%, continuing a trend in place since the summer of 2022. -NJ Spotlight News

No Matter How You Slice It and Dice It... The latest employment numbers from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) point to a robust job market. On Friday, the U.S. BLS reported that nonfarm payrolls rose 303,000 in March, well ahead of expectations. It’s not simply March; growth has been above 250,000 for four months running. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate fell to 3.8% in March from 3.9% in February. So far, Fed rate hikes in 2022 and 2023 appear to have done little to dampen economic activity. Despite numerous headlines of tech sector layoffs, not many laid-off workers are filing for unemployment benefits. Read the full analysis on our website...

Upcoming readouts on the US labour market, including the monthly payrolls report, will give the Federal Reserve policymakers insight into the need for further interest-rate reductions after an all-but-certain cut in a little more than two weeks.