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Bloomberg: Moscow and Kyiv are not going to stop gas supplies to the EU via the pipeline. Both Ukraine and Russia have a financial interest in continuing to export Russian gas to Europeans via the Ukrainian GTS. Moscow and Kyiv plan to continue gas transit to the European Union, despite the fighting that is taking place near the key gas transit point Sudzha GMS in the Kursk region, Bloomberg writes, citing sources. It is financially beneficial for both Russia and Ukraine to maintain gas shipments. For Kyiv, whose economy has been destroyed in recent years, the transit of blue fuel from the Russian Federation provides the most important profit for the country: in 2021, gas pumping brought Ukraine about $ 1 billion. Meanwhile, for Moscow, the European Union remains one of the largest buyers of its pipeline gas. At the moment, Gazprom continues to supply gas through the Sudzha gas metering station, daily supplies are stable in the region of 37 to almost 40 million cubic meters. Meanwhile, the Sudzha GMS on the territory of the village of the same name in the Kursk region of the Russian Federation is under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Bloomberg claims, the station is damaged, so it is not clear how Gazprom adjusts volumes on a daily basis. It should be noted that there was no official confirmation from the Russian side about the capture of Sudzha and GIS. https://lnkd.in/er3XgRYc

Bloomberg: Austria fears a sudden halt in gas supplies from Russia. The Austrian Ministry of Energy has officially announced the great risks for the country if supplies of blue fuel from Russia cease suddenly. Austria's industry remains dependent on Russian energy sources, and therefore the fact of a possible abrupt cessation of Russian gas supplies carries great risks for the country, Bloomberg writes, citing a statement from the Austrian Ministry of Energy. The agency cites a comment from the Austrian Ministry of Energy, which emphasizes that as long as the country is dependent on Russian blue fuel, there remains a risk of a supply disruption that could have far-reaching consequences. Let us recall that at present such a risk does exist, since on August 6, the Ukrainian Armed Forces began attacks on the Kursk region, where the only working point of gas exit from the Russian Federation to the Ukrainian side and further to Europe is located (GIS "Sudzha"). Earlier, the country's authorities designated 2027 as the date of cessation of gas purchases from the Russian Federation. But for this, it is necessary to revise the country's energy system. Perhaps such a plan will be presented before the national elections. According to it, the Austrian government assumes that pipelines through Italy and Germany will be able to cover Austrian gas demand. Bloomberg writes that a probable scenario is Austria's refusal of Russian supplies in 2025, when the contract for gas transit between Russia and Ukraine via the Ukrainian GTS expires. However, if Russian gas imports are stopped, the reserves in Austrian storage facilities could fall to 15% by 2026. Recall that Austria is one of those European countries that maintained close ties with Russian energy companies. This is not surprising, given that in May, Russian gas transited via Ukraine covered 90% of Austrian consumers' gas. Austria, as well as Slovakia and the Czech Republic, do not have another pipeline from Russia. Hungary, for example, has it easier: it also receives Russian gas from the south, via the Turkish Stream and its continuation, the Balkan Stream, via Bulgaria. https://lnkd.in/eRxpkkwe

Neftegaz.ru provides a summary of energy sector matters raised during Putin's visit to Beijing this week. Here's a summary focused on the #PowerOfSiberia2 gas pipeline project and the #NorthernSeaRoute (#NSR). On #PoS2, Putin made comments after a visit to Harbin Polytechnic University. Despite many years of negotiations with China on gas supply via #PoS2, "the issue remains in limbo". However, the decision to build #PoS2, as part of #Gazprom's 'Eastern Gas Supply System', which will unite the eastern and western gas transmission systems, has already been made in Russia. It is planned to unite the eastern and western systems by 2030-2032; #Gazprom has already begun design and survey work. Putin commented: - I’m not ready to talk about the technical details, but the strategic interest on both sides in the implementation of this project has been confirmed: on the one hand - in obtaining additional volumes of gas, on the other hand, in the sale of gas on the Chinese market; - Because the Chinese economy is growing, it requires an increase in energy resources, which are necessary to support this growth; - The obvious thing is that there is nothing more reliable than supplies from Russia; - We have a huge common border and no one will interfere here - neither #sanctions against the tanker fleet, nor #sanctions against financial institutions (we will buy and sell everything in national currencies); - This is always a complex process, but I think that economic operators will certainly agree; - The question is prices, who will earn how much; - There are different routes, one of them is through Mongolia, and in one corridor it is possible to lay both a gas pipeline and an oil line; - The specialists must decide what is best to do; - You can have a tanker fleet and establish supplies along the #NorthernSeaRoute (#NSR), almost like a pipeline; - All options are possible, they are all acceptable and economically feasible, you need to choose the best one; - I am confident that this work will be completed. Putin did not explain how it would be possible to assemble a fleet of Arc 7 ice-class carriers to supply #LNG along the #NSR. It is the lack of such #LNG carriers that is forcing #NOVATEK to postpone the start of #LNG shipments from the #ArcticLNG2 Project, which is being hindered by US #sanctions. The delivery of Arc 7s built at South Korea's #HanwhaOcean Shipyard for the project remains very uncertain, and the fate of similar vessels built at the #Zvezda Shipyard in the Russian Far East is also unclear. Russian-Chinese cooperation on the #NSR is covered in a comment below. https://lnkd.in/gjJQRhAD

Kyiv will lose money: EU refuses Ukrainian gas storage facilities. Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities are becoming less and less attractive to European companies due to their low price, as they fear that they will not be able to return the gas from there. Europeans are refusing Ukrainian UGS facilities because of Russian attacks, they are simply afraid that they will not be able to return the gas from there, writes the Financial Times. The trend of reducing the volumes of European gas in Ukrainian storage facilities was fully demonstrated this summer. Despite the fact that Ukraine owns the largest UGS facilities in Europe, the reserves in them are clearly decreasing due to the refusal of European enterprises to use such services. The total capacity of underground gas storage facilities (UGS) in Europe is 100 billion cubic meters, and the EU needs 350-500 billion cubic meters of gas to get through the heating season - it all depends on the weather. Ukraine offered European companies 10 billion cubic meters of its 30 billion cubic meters of capacity, and last year Europeans stored 2 billion cubic meters in Ukrainian UGS facilities. However, after the Russian Federation's attacks on energy infrastructure facilities in the country, the situation changed. According to Argus, in the first months of summer, European companies pumped gas into Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities at 15.4 million and 51.9 million cubic meters, while in June-July 2023 it was at the level of 102.7 million and 586.6 million cubic meters, respectively. In addition, gas prices in the EU have also fallen. If last year the benefit of storing gas in Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities was about €20 per 1 MWh, now it has dropped to €5. Analysts explained to the FT that with such a benefit, EU companies do not want to risk sending their gas to a war zone: it will not disappear from underground, but it is impossible to pump it out at the right time if the above-ground storage infrastructure is destroyed. So traders need additional incentives to take risks. Bank guarantees could be such. But according to calculations by a senior EU official cited by the FT, Kyiv could receive 200 million from European traders, but the guarantee would have to be 1 billion. “If you want to support Ukraine, just give them 1 billion euros,” the EU official told the newspaper. https://lnkd.in/eQijb4KP

The European Union is stepping up measures to wean itself off energy supplies from Russia. The European Commission has listed measures that, in the opinion of Europeans, help to wean itself off Russian energy supplies. The European Commission has listed a set of measures that, in its opinion, help the EU reduce its dependence on Russian oil and gas. Thus, EC representative Tim McPhee was forced to answer journalists' questions about what Europe needs to do to prevent an increase in gas supplies from Russia in 2024, which, based on the current rate, could exceed the 2023 level. McPhee assured that Europe is greatly helped by renewable energy and the redistribution of energy flows. And sanctions against Russia are worsening the situation of its fossil fuels in the European region. According to McPhee, Europe is also using a number of other existing tools that help reduce the presence of Russian hydrocarbons in European markets. In particular, gas legislation has been revised, allowing European countries to use national restrictions against Russia - apparently, this is about the ability of EU countries to prohibit access to their gas pipelines by suppliers from Russia and Belarus (which no one has used after it was put into effect). In addition, money is being invested in the joint infrastructure of EU countries, which will allow partner countries to help each other in difficult situations. https://lnkd.in/ewUT7c2p

Gas prices in Europe could soar by up to 20% without supplies from Russia. A possible halt in gas transit from Russia could raise prices on the European gas market by 10-20%. The cost of gas in the EU could jump by 10-20% if Russia stops pumping fuel to the region due to the escalation of the conflict with Ukraine, according to Walter Bohl, former head of the Austrian regulator E-Control, as he reported to the Montel newspaper. And although prices, according to him, will continue to rise rapidly, Europe, in particular Austria, will still have enough gas, because Russian fuel can be replaced with LNG from other countries. Earlier, the Serbian authorities spoke about a gas shortage in the event of a sharp drop in the volume of Russian fuel flowing through the Ukrainian GTS. And the Austrian Ministry of Energy, which depends on Ukrainian transit, issued an official statement, where it indicated its concerns for energy security in the event of a disruption in Russian supplies due to the situation in the Kursk region. Ukraine's attacks on the Kursk region, where the last of the Sudzha gas metering stations pumping gas from Russia to Europe is located, have led to a rise in prices in the last week: the Dutch TTF gas contract for delivery at the beginning of the month (the main contract in Europe) reached its maximum since December on Monday — €42.9/MWh ($495 per thousand cubic meters). Today, gas futures on the Dutch TTF hub cost €39.32 per 1 MWh ($454 per 1 thousand cubic meters), and are falling in price by 0.7%. https://lnkd.in/eq6PGSgA

Germany is "stealing" gas from its neighbors. Germany is trying to accumulate as much blue fuel as possible in its storage facilities - the Czech Republic claims that the accumulation is at its expense. Prague is trying to catch Berlin in gas fraud. Czech politicians believe that Germany is accumulating methane intended for Prague in its underground gas storage facilities by reducing gas pumping through its territory. According to Bloomberg, this is what Czech Industry Minister Josef Sikela wrote in his letter. The document was sent to the German government and the European Commission. Sikela indicated that the German Gascade Gastransport plans to reduce the output capacity of the gas receiving point on the border of the two countries by 4 times from October 1 - from 69 GWh to 14.5 GWh. The German company explained this by a drop in the pumping of total volumes due to the cessation of blue fuel supplies from the Russian Federation. Although, according to the GECF, imports of Russian network raw materials to Europe in the first six months of this year increased by 24%, and more gas began to be supplied from Azerbaijan and Norway. By the way, at present European underground gas storage facilities are filled with gas by more than 84%, which is not typical for this time of year. Industry experts believe that in the fall Berlin will try to keep as much methane in its storage facilities as possible, albeit at the expense of its neighbors. Germany will have to do this, since if Russian gas transit via the Ukrainian GTS is stopped from January 2025, Europe will find itself in a new energy crisis. https://lnkd.in/eRGbA4kF

Ukrainian expert: Kyiv needs to maintain gas transit for its gas supply. Maintaining gas transit through the Ukrainian GTS will help maintain pressure in the system, and thus ensure uninterrupted supplies and, ultimately, stability of gas prices. Kyiv should not stop gas transit through its lands in order to maintain uninterrupted supplies to all corners of the country in the future and not provoke price increases, believes Yuriy Korolchuk, an analyst at the Institute of Energy Strategies of Ukraine. According to him, Ukraine needs at least minimal gas volumes to transit through it, as now - up to 20 billion cubic meters. Otherwise, the pressure in the system will be low, and the price for the supply and distribution of blue fuel will increase, he said. There is logic in these words, because if the pressure in the Ukrainian GTS drops, additional infrastructure will be needed to pump to remote areas, new compressor stations, for example. They need to be built, and these are costs that will certainly be passed on to consumers, as well as time, and the heating season is near. At the end of 2019, Moscow and Kyiv agreed to extend the contract for the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine for another four years - until 2025. According to the contract, the Russian Federation supplied 65 billion cubic meters of gas through Ukrainian lands in 2020, and another 40 billion in the next three years. Kyiv refuses to extend the contract after 2024, noting that it has not yet terminated it only because of the Europeans, to whom this gas is supplied. But after the end of 2024, Kiev does not intend to extend the transit contract or sign a new one with Moscow, which it has repeatedly stated. It is also unclear what will fill the Ukrainian GTS if supplies from the Russian Federation cease. Naftogaz says that it will develop its own production and export to the EU, but it is hard to believe in this. There is an option to replace Russian gas with Azerbaijani gas, but so far it has not been possible to agree with Baku, and it will still be necessary to agree with Moscow: with such a scheme, Russia will become a transit country. https://lnkd.in/gkkDijHx

🔹 THE U.S. SETS NEW STANDARDS FOR THE HYDROGEN ECONOMY – WHAT CAN UKRAINE LEARN? The U.S. Department of the Treasury has announced final rules for the 45V hydrogen production tax credit, opening new opportunities for scaling up low-carbon hydrogen. This is not just an environmental initiative—it is a strategic step toward industrial decarbonization, energy security, and job creation. 🇺🇸 Key changes in the new rules: ✅ Tax incentives for clean hydrogen producers; ✅ Clear CO₂ emissions thresholds throughout the production lifecycle; ✅ Support for regional hydrogen hubs as energy distribution centers; ✅ Government-backed investment security. 💡 Ukraine must seize this opportunity! Amid war and the destruction of its energy infrastructure, hydrogen technologies can play a crucial role in national energy security. They can power critical infrastructure, military logistics, and heavy industry with independent, low-carbon energy. 📌 Why does this matter? Post-war recovery must follow a new model—decentralized, resilient, and secure. Hydrogen is not just the future—it is Ukraine’s opportunity for reconstruction and sustainable development today. Read more about the U.S. approach and what Ukraine can adopt ⬇️ 🔗 Read more - https://lnkd.in/eKhxgFpA #HBA – Building Ukraine’s Hydrogen Future Together! 🚀

For the eighth time since the beginning of 2024 #Gazprom has set a new record for gas supplies to China via the #PowerOfSiberia1 trunk gas pipeline system. This was reported by #Gazprom on its #Telegram channel on December 8th 2024. #Gazprom noted: - On December 7th #Gazprom set a new record for daily pipeline gas supplies to China [as is customary, #Gazprom does not disclose specific volumes of daily gas deliveries to China]; - Since December 1st, in accordance with the request of the Chinese side, daily supplies via the #PowerOfSiberia1 gas pipeline have been at the maximum contract level; - This volume has also been exceeded - a new historical maximum of daily Russian gas exports to Chinese consumers has been reached; - Gas supplies via the #PowerOfSiberia1 pipeline are carried out within the framework of a bilateral long-term gas sale & purchase agreement (#SPA) between #Gazprom and #CNPC. The latest record for daily gas supplies via the #PowerOfSiberia1 gas pipeline to China is the eighth since the beginning of 2024 (in 2023 the record was set nine times). #Gazprom set a series of records for daily gas supplies to China in January-February 2024, when the records were broken six times (January 2nd, January 3rd, January 12th, January 31st, February 3rd and February 7th), which was due to the abnormally cold winter in China. The next time the record was broken was on July 27th, amid abnormal heat. Starting from December 1st 2024, per an additional agreement signed with #CNPC a month earlier than planned, #Gazprom brought daily supplies via the #PowerOfSiberia1 gas pipeline to the maximum contract level. According to the contract, the maximum volume of Russian pipeline gas supplies to China via the 'Eastern Route' (#PowerOfSiberia1 gas pipeline) should be 38 billion m3/year. In daily terms, the maximum contract level assumes the supply of 108.6 million m3/day (excluding the period of scheduled preventive maintenance, which occurs twice a year and usually takes 15 days in total). In 2023 #Gazprom increased gas supplies to China via the #PowerOfSiberia1 gas pipeline by 1.5 times, to 22.7 billion m3, versus a plan of 22 billion m3. The planned figure for 2024 is 30 billion m3, but it may well be exceeded, amounting to over 31 billion m3. In the fall of 2023 #Gazprom suggested that an agreement could be reached with China in the near future to increase gas supplies via the #PowerOfSiberia1 gas pipeline beyond its current design capacity. The company has previously discussed with #CNPC the possibility of increasing deliveries to 44 billion m3/year, and even earlier the possibility of transporting up to 60 billion m3/year of gas via the gas pipeline was tabled. https://lnkd.in/gq3NaGRq