AUKUS Forum’s Post

Modern wars are not reliant on 'beaches'. Bombs can be rained from the sky, drones can be used to destroy enemy positions remotely and people can be parachuted in or deployed en-mass via planes. There are roads, airports and other places where this can happen. Taiwan needs to be ready to repel china's attack. The world needs to be ready to defend Taiwan. #standwithtaiwan

”For all the breathless talk of occupying Taiwanese land, which accompanied this week’s drills, a full-on invasion remains an extremely difficult and unlikely task, at least in the short to medium term. Estimates vary but anything between 300,000 and 2 million combat troops, along with thousands of tanks, artillery pieces, rocket launchers and armoured personnel carriers would need to cross the Taiwan Strait. It would be an operation of unprecedented size and complexity, and the preparations would be impossible to hide. Taiwan has important allies in the island’s geography and the climate of the Taiwan Strait. The coastal terrain has been described as a defender’s dream, with only 14 beaches regarded as suitable for an amphibious landing. The treacherous waters and winds of the Taiwan Strait, known as heishuigou or the ‘Black Ditch’ in local dialect, mean there are only two realistic windows for an invasion every year – late March to the end of April, or late September to the end of October.”

Why is an Army guy in Warships International Fleet Review? To discuss the importance of the conflict in the Ukraine and the case for the West to keep up its support. You can check out my article, Beyond Borders and Seas, where I discuss the conflict, particularly in the Black Sea and its global implications, in the April 2024 Warships IFR available here: https://lnkd.in/eRv_GkMt

Where countries build their military bases suggest what they plan to do with them. For an article in this week's The Economist, I analysed data on every military airbase built in China, and which of them had been established or expanded since Xi Jinping took power. The news are good: China is either not preparing for an imminent invasion of Taiwan, or failing to do so well. This implies a lower probability of war, which would be terrible for everyone involved. https://lnkd.in/eKiKNes2

🚢 Russian Black Sea Fleet's Last Patrol Ship Departs Crimea 🚢 In a significant development, the last patrol ship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet remaining in Crimea has departed, as confirmed by a spokesman for the Ukrainian armed forces. This suggests that Ukraine's strategic campaign to drive the Russian Navy out of the western half of the Black Sea has succeeded, with the risk of Ukrainian drone and missile attacks around Crimea becoming too high for Russia's surface fleet. The final holdout was a Project 1135 frigate/patrol ship, known to NATO as the Krivak-class, built during the Cold War for the Soviet Navy. Of the original 40, only three remain in active Russian service, including the less heavily-armed KGB patrol-ship version, Pytlivyy, assigned to the Black Sea Fleet. "Given that they have not been able to patrol for a while, the movement vector... We can assume that this is a transition between bases," said Ukrainian Navy spokesman Dmytro Pletenchuk to the Kyiv Independent. "[This] indicates the Russians' understanding that they must leave Crimea. At least [their] ships." Despite lacking a traditional navy, Ukraine's drone boat and missile attacks have significantly impacted the Black Sea Fleet, damaging or destroying roughly 30% of its commissioned ships since the full-scale invasion in 2022. This includes high-profile targets like the fleet flagship cruiser Moskva and the Kilo-class sub Rostov-on-Don. Ukraine's unconventional campaign has drawn global attention, influencing strategies from the U.S. Navy to China's PLA Navy and affecting security approaches in regions like Taiwan and the Red Sea. #Ukraine #Russia #BlackSeaFleet #NavalWarfare #DefenseStrategy #Crimea

Under the paragraph of Turkey, citation: “……The need for an American presence adjacent to the Black Sea will only grow once the war comes to an end, because Russia will continue to pose a threat to an independent Ukraine…..“ Honestly, after the war that is already underway in Ukraine, why can't you send your own US soldiers now instead of just supplying weapons with reservations. You have done enough damage to humanity and stop your geopolitical dreaming. Humanity needs peace and calm at last. Incidentally, Turkey is a sovereign state and has provided and will continue to provide security in the Black Sea.

In the Red Sea, the US has no good options against the Houthis Operation Prosperity Guardian (OPG), the United States Navy-led coalition of the willing intended to allow international shipping to continue navigating safely through the Red Sea, is set to activate within days. Including allies from Europe and the Middle East, as well as Canada and Australia, the operation has been snubbed by three important NATO countries, #france , #italy and #spain What is the exact task of OPG? US Navy European Union #shipping #middleeast #redseal

As the military considers placing 20 man teams onto commercial vessels to deter Iranian aggression, the Biden administration needs to be sure that we have fully thought through the rules of engagement and our contingency actions if the Iranians decide to engage anyway. The 2017 capture of US Navy vessels and sailors was certainly a very different circumstance than this would be, but that incident, and the mixed responses to international crisis involving US servicemembers over the last several years, (in particular in Afghanistan) paints a worrying picture of indecision. Not only does our military need a clear view of our mission and contingency expectations, but this administration needs to be very clear with the Iranians and the world about exactly what will happen if they overstep - and we must be willing and able to decisively follow through with whatever that position may be. Lack of clarity stemming from the Afghan withdrawal and statements made by the President Biden regarding Ukraine likely factored heavily into Putin's decision to attack Ukraine. We cannot afford to be dragged into war with Iran because we were indecisive, unclear, or irrational. #geopoliticalrisk #oceanfreight #oceanshipping #iran #navy #marinecorps #oceanshipping https://lnkd.in/g_BfdmwC

#DYK Fort Gordon's Cyber Fitness Center will soon be renamed after Operation TORCH, one of General Eisenhower's most historic WWII campaigns. Operation TORCH was the Allied ground invasion of French North Africa during WWII. The operation enabled Joint Force overmatch. During the early days of WWII, Allied maritime forces struggled to protect assets in the Mediterranean and Middle East (namely, Gibraltar and British forces in Egypt). Limited operational footprints and the need for sustained resupply of troops in Egypt led the Allies to cede control of much of the Mediterranean Sea to the Axis, allowing them to dominate North Africa. It was not until Operation TORCH that the Allies were able to push back Italian and German ground forces, open airfields for Allied aircraft, and secure vital ports and sea lanes. This enabled subsequent Allied operations to liberate Southern Europe. Allied land power enabled the transformation of the Mediterranean into an Allied “lake” by the middle of 1943. #History #TransformationTuesday #ILikeIke #CyberForge #VictoryStartsHere (Photo/National Archives: Invasion convoy enroute to Morocco, circa early November 1942. Ships include more than twenty transports, with USS TEXAS (BB-35) and USS AUGUSTA (CA-31) in the distance. Photographed from an SBD off one of the invasion force aircraft carriers.)

https://lnkd.in/epN_Sft3 Formerly the primary governing body over mainland China, the Republic of China has been confined to Taiwan since losing the Chinese Civil War in 1949 to Mao Zedong’s communist faction. A group of Chinese warplanes and maritime vessels passed near Taiwan on Wednesday as part of a large-scale drill, with dozens of planes violating the island’s airspace. The flotilla included seven ships and 43 planes, 37 of which crossed into Taiwan’s side of the strait, according to Republic of China’s Ministry of National Defense. The aerial incursion prompted Taipei to deploy its own planes and naval forces in response. “43 PLA [People’s Liberation Army] aircraft and 7 PLAN [navy] vessels around Taiwan were detected by 6 a.m.(UTC+8) today. #ROCArmedForces have monitored the situation and tasked CAP aircraft, Navy vessels, and land-based missile systems to respond,” the Taiwanese ministry wrote. “37 of the detected aircraft… had crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait and entered Taiwan’s SW and SE ADIZ.” Planes from the People’s Republic of China have repeatedly violated the Republic of China’s airspace in recent years. The incursions are part of a pattern of increasingly bellicose behavior by Beijing to intimidate the government administering the island, which it considers part of its territory. Formerly the primary governing body over mainland China, the Republic of China has been confined to Taiwan since losing the Chinese Civil War in 1949 to Mao Zedong’s communist faction. In principle, both governments agree on the existence of a single, unified China including the territories of both polities, though each lays claim to the mantle of that state’s legitimate government. The United States has generally served as the Republic of China’s primary backer and deteriorating relations between Washington and Beijing in recent years have served to heighten fears of an outright Chinese invasion. Despite these tensions, the White House announced this week that President Joe Biden plans to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping later this month. “We’ve been talking about it. The president said he’s looking forward to meeting with President Xi and so, not going to get into details about this meeting that’s going to happen… next month,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said Tuesday. “It’s going to be in San Francisco; it’s going to be a constructive meeting. The president’s looking forward to it.”