Stanford University's Bill Lane Center for the American West’s Post

The latest poll from the Schar School and The Washington Post aims to understand what voters think about the election following President Biden's recent decision to end his campaign. Read more about our findings below!

As Election 2024 heads into the final stretch, Vice President Harris holds a slim lead in the polls — well within the margin of error. With only 5 weeks to go, both campaigns are bracing for an 'October surprise' that could sway the outcome. What exactly is an 'October surprise'? It's that shocking piece of news that shakes up a campaign, often just before Election Day, and has changed the course of many past elections. From Martin Van Buren's gambit in 1840 to the infamous 2016 FBI email probe, these surprises have often played a crucial role in the final weeks of a presidential campaign. This year, the Harris and Trump campaigns are preparing for potential shocks in several areas, from weather events to international turmoil. Explore the fascinating history of October surprises, and see what's on the horizon for Election 2024. Read the full story here: https://lnkd.in/ehJTJPh8 #Election2024 #OctoberSurprise #PoliticalHistory #CampaignSeason

Turnout among Texas voters is slightly down this fall compared to the record-setting 2020 presidential election, according to a Texas Tribune analysis of state data. More than 2.8 million Texans this year have either voted in person during the first three days of early voting or have returned their ballot by mail. That’s 15.1% of all registered voters. In 2020, 15.7% of registered voters went to the polls or turned in their ballot during the same period in 2020.

As a result of a casual conversation today, I was spurred to consider something I think plagues many Americans about the upcoming Presidential election -- how to vote if you don't like either candidate. The discussion centered around how not voting for either Trump or Biden or voting for an Independent candidate could translate to a "vote" for Trump. This is very concerning, and needs great consideration. A recent article in one of last month's New York Times Magazine suggests the impact of the "ambivalent voter" could be a decisive factor in the upcoming election. Great attention will be given to these undecided - or decidedly uncommitted - voters, as candidates understand well their need to sway them. Understanding the potential threat to our constitutional rights and democratic privileges if meaningful, thoughtful and intentional action is not taken in the months ahead is critical, and needs to be carefully considered. https://lnkd.in/g4iujHZZ

https://lnkd.in/e-9ihGjD #Democracy Undone: The #Texas Placebo #Ballot Plot They must go to court to take away your gun, but they can take away your vote without even informing you... #ThomHartmann  #uspolitics Aug 08, 2024 ..."So, Republicans in Texas have come up with a new twist that’s designed to avoid directly confronting and angering voters. You could call it “passive aggressive vote suppression.” Instead of purging people off the rolls entirely, they’re putting voters they consider suspicious on what they call a “suspense” list. As of last week, according to The Dallas Morning News, “Nearly 12% of Texas’ roughly 18 million voters are on the suspense list.” If you’re running a state and want to hang onto your office, even if your policies are not popular and you’re so incompetent you can’t even keep the power on, the easiest way to stay in office — to “win” elections — is to pre-rig them by making sure some people’s ballots are simply never counted. ... Being on the suspense list means that when you show up to vote, you’ll be given a “provisional ballot.” What’s a provisional ballot? Former BBC and Guardian reporter Greg Palast calls them “placebo ballots,” and with good reason. You mark the ballot with your voting choices, hand it in, and walk away feeling like you actually voted. You tell exit pollsters and your friends that you voted. You believe that you voted, and that your vote will be counted. But, because it’s a provisional ballot, it goes into a separate box and is not counted on election day. Many provisional ballots are never counted, in fact, because for a provisional ballot to be counted in most states (including Texas) the voter must, within 6 days of the election, present themselves at the Secretary of State’s office with ID and proof of citizenship and residence. If you don’t take the day off work to do this, your ballot is not counted. And often people don’t even realize what’s happened to their vote."...

A recent survey sheds light on the competitive landscape of the 2024 presidential election, focusing on three pivotal battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin. The findings reveal a closely contested race between Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and former Republican President Donald Trump. As the election approaches, understanding voter preferences in these states will be […]

In a must-read article from the current issue of The Atlantic, Ron Brownstein describes a large and pivotal group of undecided voters: the "irregulars" — those who are unsure if they will actually vote at all. These are persuasion voters as well.   As I mention in the piece, these infrequent voters have some common characteristics. Namely, this electorate has a) a lot of anger and b) discouragement. People are discouraged about their lives and feel as though they are trying really hard but getting nowhere.    Against that backdrop, the challenge for Democrats is to give these voters some sort of agency to feel like their vote matters, because a lot of them feel that no one is paying attention.   Give the article a read: https://lnkd.in/gwmhrjsC

For all those first-time and #independent voters out there in #washingtonstate. Here's what you need to know about the Presidential Primaries. I can't believe there isn't a hashtag for that. Anyways.... There's also information herein if you're a student in WA, but a registered voter in another state... It's OK if you already voted before you read this too. My point in writing this post is to inform you that you can still vote for whomever you wish in the 2024 General Election to select our nation's #POTUS. As reported by the Tri-City Herald on February 26th, this is not a permanent affiliation. It will not affect your future voting. The party you choose will be removed from your voter record 60 days after the primary results are certified, according to the Washington Secretary of State website. The Presidential Primary for WA is March 12, 2024. #NBC news has an excellent website on links to vote and a real-time clock around when the polls closing in all states. Easy to read and find how to vote from the site if you're not a WA native. Check out the full site below: https://lnkd.in/dMTztdP3 If you're registered to vote, the ballots are auto-mailed to you, but there may seem to be a few bits of information missing. While Washington has an open primary system, you receive a ballot that includes options for voting in either the Democratic or Republican party. The return enveloped supplied says "Mark one party declaration box (required)." And what you mark on the envelop has to match the party, with a candidate selection, you choose on the official ballot page. As an independent voter in WA, you're invited to choose either democratic or republican party. Or you can choose neither. In other states there may be a nonpartisan ballot if there are nonpartisan races or ballot measures on the primary ballot. Again, voting in the Presidential Primary does not obligate you to vote Democratic or Republican. Even IF you're a Democrat or Republican. Just so you are aware. And then there's the issue on wether you're voting in a "closed" or "open" primary state. I will write an opinion article on the whole primary process detailing the break downs of "open", "closed" (the list of states) and what I think this means to first-time, independent and "no-party" voters. In short, primary elections serve several purposes within the electoral process: Selecting party nominees, allowing party members to participate, shaping party platforms, increasing voter engagement, and testing candidate viability. Again, in the general election (when you go back to select a POTUS), you can consider candidates from all parties and make our selection based on individual preference, policy-alignment and verified qualifications of the candidate. Independent voter's opinions count! Attached is the most recent chart from Gallup poll showing 43% of Americans are independent. Your opinion counts! We're all in this together. #voters

A monumental step towards electoral reform is unfolding in Wisconsin. The state's Senate committee is currently reviewing a bipartisan bill that could revolutionize how congressional candidates are chosen. 🌟 The proposed bill introduces a ranked choice voting system. Here's how it works: 🔍 1. In primaries, all candidates, regardless of party, appear on a single ballot. 2. The top five candidates advance to the general election. 3. Voters then rank candidates in order of preference. 4. If no candidate wins a majority initially, the lowest-ranked candidate is eliminated, and votes are redistributed based on second preferences, and so on, until a majority winner emerges. This new system has the potential to offer voters more meaningful options and empower independent candidates. Join us in cheering on electoral reform initiatives like this one that are paving the way for a more representative future! https://lnkd.in/eqUxtqF3

A recent survey sheds light on the competitive landscape of the 2024 presidential election, focusing on three pivotal battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin. The findings reveal a closely contested race between Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and former Republican President Donald Trump. As the election approaches, understanding voter preferences in these states will be […]