USNewsper Politics’ Post

A recent survey sheds light on the competitive landscape of the 2024 presidential election, focusing on three pivotal battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin. The findings reveal a closely contested race between Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and former Republican President Donald Trump. As the election approaches, understanding voter preferences in these states will be […]

DEVELOPING: As the 2024 Presidential Election nears, Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in several key polls: 50%-48% (Emerson), 51%-46% (Morning Consult), and 49%-44% (Susquehanna). RealClearPolitics’ polling average shows Harris with a 2.2-point edge, while FiveThirtyEight gives her a 2.8-point lead. NOTE: Despite these national leads, the swing state race remains close, with Harris leading in five key states, while Trump leads in Georgia and ties in North Carolina. NOTE: Polls are only snapshots of trends at a moment in time. Polling data, especially this close to Election Day, does not guarantee results. The race remains wide open, with both candidates having a path to victory. Many polls fall within the margin of error, meaning the contest is highly competitive. Ultimately, the only poll that truly matters is when Americans cast their ballots on November 5. Remember that Donald Trump can win in November, and Kamala Harris can win in November. We will have a President Harris or a President Trump. Anyone who dismisses them based on polls or talking heads on television and online is making a huge mistake. Remember that I warned you months and weeks before the elections!!! NOTE: In the 2024 election, several key swing states could significantly influence the outcome. These states include: Michigan: A state where Harris currently leads, but Trump has strong support among working-class voters. Pennsylvania: Traditionally a battleground state, where voter turnout in suburbs and rural areas could swing the result. Wisconsin: A state Trump won in 2016 but lost in 2020, making it pivotal. Georgia: Trump holds a slight lead here, but demographic shifts have made it competitive. North Carolina: A tied race, critical for either campaign. Scenarios in these states could involve strong turnout from suburban voters or last-minute shifts among undecided voters, with either candidate capable of winning. Ultimately, the race is close in these battlegrounds, and the final result could swing either way.

Title: Analyzing the 2024 Election: A Shift in Political Paradigm WWLAC (C) Introduction: The 2024 election has marked a significant turning point in the political landscape, with far-reaching implications for the future of governance and public policy. The culmination of months of rigorous campaigning and intense debates, this election has not only reflected the evolving aspirations and concerns of the electorate but has also showcased a notable transition in political ideologies. In this article, we will delve into the key highlights and trends that defined the 2024 election, highlighting the factors that shaped its outcome and exploring the potential ramifications for the nation. A Polarized Political Climate: The 2024 election took place against the backdrop of a deeply polarized political climate, characterized by stark ideological divisions and a growing sense of disillusionment among voters. The contest between the two major parties, the Democratic Party and the Republican Party, remained fierce, with both sides capitalizing on the prevailing discontentment to advance their contrasting visions for the future of the nation. Emergence of Third-Party Candidates: One of the defining features of the 2024 election was the emergence of third-party candidates who gained significant traction and challenged the dominance of the two major parties. Dissatisfied with the status quo, a growing number of voters rallied behind alternative political movements, seeking fresh perspectives and solutions to address the pressing issues facing the country. The rise of these third-party candidates signaled a desire for change and a departure from traditional party affiliations. Youth Engagement and Activism: The 2024 election witnessed a surge in youth engagement and activism, with young voters contributing to the shaping of the political discourse. Empowered by social media platforms and driven by a desire for systemic change, young people mobilized in unprecedented numbers, advocating for issues such as climate action, gun control, and social justice. Their influence on the electoral process highlighted the growing significance of younger generations in shaping the political landscape. Conclusion: The 2024 election marked a significant turning point in American politics, reflecting a shifting paradigm that encompasses a polarized electorate, the rise of third-party candidates, evolving policy priorities, the impact of technology, and increased youth engagement. As the country moves forward, it is crucial to recognize and address the underlying factors that have shaped this election. By fostering dialogue, embracing diversity of thought, and working towards common goals, policymakers and citizens alike can strive for a more inclusive and prosperous future for the nation.

Three takeaways from this Newsweek op-ed on undecided American voters, penned by David Brady and Bruce Cain, director of the Bill Lane Center for the American West: 1. Persuadable voters lean more toward the moderate, liberal and Democratic end of the spectrum than those who have made up their minds already. 2. The persuadable voters need both more persuasion and more mobilization than the already decided voters. 3. The persuadable voters are not paying as much attention to the campaign, even though they need more information. What will this mean for the Trump vs. Biden election? Read the article here: https://lnkd.in/grGBQHFH

ICYMI:  How do young WA voters view the presidential race and Kamala Harris as a candidate?  Check out this fascinating Seattle Times article on how voters age 18-25 view the upcoming presidential election:

Today, AARP Nevada released a 2024 statewide election survey that shows candidates for President, U.S. Senate, and state races should pay close attention to Nevadans ages 50 and older, and the issues they care about. The 50+ voting bloc holds an outsized importance to this year’s election – 85% of Nevadans 50+ are “extremely motivated” to cast a vote in November, significantly higher than the 60% of voters 18-49. With the races being so close this year, appealing to high-turnout voters should be a major campaign priority. https://lnkd.in/guJNSZuZ

Our latest SSRS poll from the Schar School and The Washington Post shows Presidential candidates Harris and Trump running 'nearly evenly' across seven battleground states. Read more about how the Schar-Post polls are helping to predict possible election results below!

The 2024 presidential election was held in November, and the Democratic candidate, Ms. Harris, and the Republican candidate, Donald Trump, were neck-and-neck as the two candidates with the closest approval ratings of the century. In fact, it was the closest U.S. presidential election in terms of approval ratings in 60 years. An analysis of polls by CNN's Harry Enten shows that since the Harris-Trump debate on the 10th of this month, while Harris appears to be slightly ahead of Trump nationally, it's still within the margin of error, and the two are neck-and-neck, especially when the Electoral College is taken into account. Harris has one of the best polling records to date, but the lead is only 4 points and 5 points, respectively, according to polls released today by CBS News and NBC News. Her largest leads in YouGov and NBC News polls in 2016 and 2020 were at least twice as large as they are now. According to CNN's latest poll, Harris leads Trump by an average of 3 points. That's consistent with what we've seen this year, Enten writes, as no candidate has been able to lead by more than an average of 5 points in national polls, including during the time that incumbent Joe Biden was the likely Democratic presidential nominee. Notably, no candidate led by at least 5 points throughout the process, an extremely rare occurrence. Even in races where the final vote was close, there was almost always a candidate who established a significant advantage at some point. Even if some voters thought Harris did better than Trump in the debates, the difference seemed to be only a few percentage points. Enten points out that you have to go back to the 1960 presidential election to find a general election in which the major party nominees consistently averaged within 5 percentage points of each other in national polls. In every presidential election since then, there have been at least three weeks in which the candidate has led by more than five points. For Hogan, a three-point lead in the national polls is far from a guarantee of victory. Since 1948, there has been an average 3-point difference in the polls between election eve and polling day. In some years, such as 2020, the margin of error has been even larger. With the election still some time away, it's not surprising that the average gap between poll results and final results would be even larger

In our latest blog post, we examine two potentially decisive groups: Undecided Voters and New Voters.

#2024Elections More than 1 million votes have been cast in #Georgia during the early voting period. This is a 123% increase from the last record set during the first day of early voting. The milestone of 1 million voters was reached on Friday, which is roughly 14% of active voters in the state. https://lnkd.in/ey9qDBBe According to veteran campaigners, early voting "helps Democrats", as it indicates voter enthusiasm and allows campaigns to keep track of who has voted. High-turnout elections generally favor Democrats, while low-turnout elections favor Republicans, due to the demographic leanings of reliable and sporadic voting blocs. Early voting allows campaigns to focus their get-out-the-vote efforts on those voters who are still outstanding until Election Day. A record 353,166 voters participated in early voting in #NorthCarolina, surpassing the previous record of 348,559 set in 2020. Wake County reported the highest first-day early voting turnout, with 30,843 ballots cast. State election director Karen Brinson Bell noted the turnout reflects trust in the election process, even in storm-affected areas. https://lnkd.in/eJFQAHKf