If there was a grade for spending, consumers would have earned a solid D in May. Retail sales were a big disappointment for a second month in a row. #interestrates #economy #creditunion
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SVP of Mortgage Lending NMLS ID: 1369901 at Guaranteed Rate, Inc. NMLS ID: 2611, Licensed by the Dept of Financial Protection and Innovation under the California Residential Mortgage Lending Act
Guys, we talked about this - if you want interest rates to go down you have to STOP SHOPPING. As it is, look forward to the return of 8% if retail sales and other economic data points continue to trend higher. #mortgageloans #economy
Retail sales jumped 0.7% in March, much higher than expected
cnbc.com
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The retail industry faces fierce competition and a tough market. Our latest blog explores the mindset of retail consumers and how a deeper understanding of the “why behind the buy” can lead to retail success 🛒 Read it now 👇 #GrowthFromKnowledge #RetailInsights #ConsumerMindsets #SalesStrategies #RetailSuccess
Retail Success: the Why behind the Buy
gfk.com
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Retail sales are soaring and it's not just because of price hikes, according to senior industry analyst Ted Rossman from Bankrate. In fact, Americans are actually buying more stuff! Rossman shares that this is one of the strongest retail sales reports we've seen in the past couple of years. Check out the full details on Yahoo Finance. #RetailSales #Bankrate #FinanceNews
Retail sales surge 0.7% in March as Americans seem unfazed by higher prices with jobs plentiful
ca.finance.yahoo.com
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I help ecommerce fashion & clothing businesses increase CRO & retention, and reduce returns using AI & Computer Vision | Techstars Ebay '24
So, what's up in retail this week? Interesting data & perspectives on US, UK and China. 👇 Encouraging in US 🇺🇸 - some of the most discretionary spending, like personal care and clothing and accessories all came in well over 5% growth year over year – beating inflation and then some. Not so in the UK 🇬🇧 - a lot of mortgages are coming off fixed terms, leaving home owners with increased payments and more arrears (+4% quarter-on-quarter). This will continue for the next 5 years as mortgages come out of fixed terms, so will likely continue to have an impact on spending. China slowing 🇨🇳 - slower trend GDP growth ~4-5% mark (vs ~8% Longer term) and lower confidence from homeowners having an impact on spending. https://lnkd.in/daQRf7EJ #retail #ecommerce
Positive Economic News For US Retail, Not So Much Elsewhere
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GLOBAL INTERESTING BUSINESS MOVES…012 U.K. retail sales volumes fell by 3.2% in December, after a poll by Reuters suggested an expected drop of just 0.5%. The reading “increases the chances the economy may have ended 2023 in the mildest of mild recessions,” said Alex Kerr, assistant economist at Capital Economics. U.K. retail sales dropped significantly more than expected in December, in a sign that the economy may have entered a shallow recession in the second half of 2023. The Office for National Statistics said sales volumes fell by 3.2% during the key trading month, after a 1.4% rise in November. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a fall of just 0.5% December marked the largest monthly decline since January 2021, when strict pandemic lockdown measures dampened demand. The ONS said people appeared to have done their Christmas shopping earlier than in previous years. Volumes were 0.9% lower in the three months to December 2023, compared with the previous quarter. It comes after U.K. gross domestic product for the third quarter was revised down to a 0.1% contraction, from a prior reading of no growth. “Today’s release would subtract around 0.15 percentage points from real GDP growth in December, which increases the chances the economy may have ended 2023 in the mildest of mild recessions,” said Alex Kerr, assistant economist at Capital Economics. Looking to the year ahead, Kerr said that the impact of higher interest rates on mortgage holders may lead to a further “modest decline” in real consumer spending in the first quarter. He added that the expected interest rate cuts from June and a fall in inflation would support a recovery in the second half of the year. https://lnkd.in/eXRcWJSu Shoppers walk past shops on Regent Street on the final weekday before Christmas in London on December 22, 2023. Henry Nicholls | Afp | Getty Images #TIBBID #ThatIgboBusinessBoyInDiaspora
Grim retail sales suggest possible recession for Britain
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This is a most sobering article, however, it is courageous enough to say what many within the retail industry are thinking. There are many mix messages out there and many which have been politicised for short term benefit. Whilst we are all concerned about the direct and indirect impact of the increasing cost of living pressures and inflation, bottom line, many people continue to spend savings. Necessity or therapy? No doubt, 2024 will be a challenging year in many ways. This article enforces the need to be aware, not afraid, when reviewing your SWOT's and planning for the year ahead. As I always say, the best business models can evolve from those tougher times. #retail#challengesinretail#costofliving#spending#inflation#2024budgets#salesforecasting#shoppingcentre#retailleasing#consumer
2024 Retail Forecast: Will The Party Finally End?
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Consumer centric insight is never more important to leverage than at a time where consumers are having to make hard choices about where to spend their money. In part one of three, get behind some of the key angles retailers and brands should be measuring to more effectively drive the key strategies that will get them ahead of the competition.
The retail industry faces fierce competition and a tough market. Our latest blog explores the mindset of retail consumers and how a deeper understanding of the “why behind the buy” can lead to retail success 🛒 Read it now 👇 #GrowthFromKnowledge #RetailInsights #ConsumerMindsets #SalesStrategies #RetailSuccess
Retail Success: the Why behind the Buy
gfk.com
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June Retail Sales is expected to come in -0.2% from May. If it happens, it will only be the 9th time in the last 37 readings the change in Retail Sales outpaced the change in total Credit Card balances. I'll take the 3.5:1 it doesn't... I often get frustrated (shocker, I know) with the lack of connectivity between public data sets cited from those with large audiences. It seems like every chart or data scenario is locked in a vacuum and can only be utilized for that talk track. ANY macroeconomic data point, consumer-based especially, is better when it is given context with a related metric...it helps us qualify the actual insight. Case in point - Retail Sales and Credit Card balances. Since the launch of the Consumer Loan metric by the Federal Reserve Board in late 2000, these two metrics have been within 10bps* of each other, in the favor of credit balances, on a monthly cadence. That means if I get a reading on Credit Card balances five days before Retail Sales, like this month, I have a fairly good indicator. However, since June of 2021, that 10bps has shot up to 70bps. This change has largely been driven by the excessive spending in June, inflationary reaction in 2022, and then likely the continuation of spending from higher income households. Unsurprisingly, the two giant boosts in that time (Jan '22 and Jan '23) also coincide with Social Security COLA's going into place.... Both have been slowing quite substantially after a little boost in Q1. On Friday, the final figures for June came in with Credit Card balances down from May...only the 3rd negative read in 3 years but the 2nd in Q2 of '24 (June was -29bps). That said, I'm not crazy enough to suggest retail sales will be down nearly 100bps (-1%) between June and May (-70bs average for Retail Sales from Credit Balance change), but I do believe the projected figure of -10bps is a little light. I'll go with -50bps (-0.5%). We'll see tomorrow. Regardless, this quarter is looking like it hit a wall from the consumer standpoint... #retail #consumerbehavior
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Interesting trending considering we know that less is always more. Reducing "territory" size and going deeper in the book always yields even higher productivity gains for the advisor, and when married with additional advisor hires, always yields better penetration and productivity for the institution.
According to the 2024 Stathis Partners Annual Study, in the last five years, retail households and retail core deposit growth have outpaced the size of the average full-time sales force. In the last five years the number of retail households per advisor swelled 40% and retail deposit opportunities followed suit at 30% over 2019. Advisor revenue has grown in lockstep with retail coverage. In April 2024, average monthly production hit $63,000 per rep, almost 40% over April 2019. For more information or to download a preview of our 2024 report, https://lnkd.in/e58tDxG8
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Insight from our CBRE Retail Research & Leadership Team (Brandon Isner, Daniel Diebel, Laura Barr, Jennifer Olsen-Suhr, Todd Caruso) on retail sales forecasts for this holiday season. Summary: - Holiday retail sales growth is expected to moderate this year as persistent inflation, lower savings rates, rising credit-card debt and higher interest rates begin to take their toll on consumer confidence. Year-over-year retail sales in the Q4 holiday period are expected to increase by just 3% this year compared with the 7.5% jump in 2022 and 14.6% surge in 2021. - Wage growth has exceeded inflation for most of this year and the 3.8% unemployment rate as of September is well below the long-term average of 5.7%. However, the personal savings rate fell to 3.9% in August, less than half of the long-term average of 8.8%. - Debt service on student loans could total $10.4 billion per month or $31.3 billion per quarter, assuming a 20-year payment period and the 20-year average interest rate of 5.09%. This could limit spending power by around 2% of the projected $1.5 trillion in total consumer spending for Q4 2023, which would materially impact the retail industry. - More than 50% of respondents to CBRE’s 2022 Global Live-Work-Shop survey said they prefer returning online purchases in-store, compared with just under 20% who prefer returning items by mail. This could lead to more in-store foot traffic, as online returns have been increasing. A weekly average of 13.1% of online orders were returned for the 2022 holiday shopping season, compared with 8.4% in 2021, according to eMarketer. Full Report: https://lnkd.in/gQmDQawz #cbre #holiday2023 #retailsales #retailrealesate
Slight Increase in Holiday Retail Sales Expected This Year
cbre.com
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