Christian Grece’s Post

✅🖥️ The Hollywood Reporter (5/9): “This year, the disruption is more figurative, but in many ways much worse: Linear TV, the linchpin of the ad business for Hollywood, is rapidly eroding. At the same time, this is the year that the streaming behemoths have decided to go for the ad jugular, with Netflix planning an “immersive” experience for media buyers and Amazon storming into upfronts only months after turning on commercials for its millions of Prime Video users, both of them joining YouTube during this critical week in New York. In other words, linear TV is on the ropes at a time when legacy media needs it most to get over that streaming chasm. “We’re not kidding ourselves thinking this is going to be some gangbusters upfront. It’s going to be challenging again,” one ad sales chief with exposure to linear TV tells The Hollywood Reporter. Another TV ad sales chief adds that they were focused on “flexibility” and “transparency” with ad partners, basically asking them what they wanted and figuring out a way to deliver. But some analysts have been even more bearish. “Decades from now, media executives and investors will likely look back at 2023 as the year where linear TV advertising officially broke,” MoffettNathanson analyst Michael Nathanson wrote March 19. “It is now clear that outside of sports advertising there should no longer be expectations of a recovery for linear TV advertising.” Indeed, multiple top ad sales executives say that sports will be one of the top selling points during an otherwise challenging year, with athletes and studio hosts expected on stage at multiple presentations.” ⬇️ #streamingtv #livesports #ctvadvertising #upfronts #newfronts

More despair for TV versus record profits for Meta… Warner Bros Discovery reported a 13% decline in advertising for the first nine months of 2023. Traditional TV has been “hollowed out” by digital advertising, i.e. Meta, who posted record advertising profits while putting thousands of people out of work. My company, Contxtual.tv lets people shop every scene of their favorite TV shows just by clicking pause. Now yes, that’s a cool thing for sure, delightful and convenient for viewers, but why mention it in relation to crappy dynamics happening in the industry? Well, bear with me a minute (chat gpt did a lousy job helping me organize my thoughts around this). Clicking pause to shop tv shows has a powerful secondary effect: it produces the very same fuel that powers the Meta profit machine - ‘purchase intent’. Meta gets it. Streaming video doesn’t. Brands need it to drive purchases, so they pay Meta. In my journey as the founder of Contxtual.tv, my team and I set out to solve problems - mostly technology problems like ‘how can we scale this so that it works in every show’? What we didn’t realize was that by solving this, we actually give streaming video companies that fuel - that same power of ‘purchase intent’ that Meta has. Now sure, I want Contxtual.tv to be a huge success - the gold standard of contextual video advertising - of course I do. But I have to say I’m really concerned about the direction of things in our industry and in the world. They don’t seem to be going in the right direction. More and more seems to be flowing to fewer and fewer and it’s driving down the quality of life in our society as a whole. (Go read Scott Galloway’s latest post, “METAstasis”. I digress.) So I’ll sign off with one last thought. Of course I want everyone to check out what we’re doing at Contxtual.tv. That’s what we’re all doing here on LinkedIn. It’s what I’ve invested years of myself into. But if in doing so we could help turn the tide in the industry, get streaming into the black, get people back to work making amazing art in TV and film, help steer people away from toxic, “empty-calorie” social platforms and into soul-nourishing, magical stories… improve lives… Then i would have also served a great purpose. If only Zuck would want the same.

as usual, Jeremiah McMillan has a great take on Advertisers pulling back on allocating media dollars to TV - in general - and Linear TV specifically. but while he's right to emphasize Dave Sederbaum's point that "the average viewer's preference is for streaming..." the premium streamers allow the consumer to opt out by paying a higher price, and the ad-supported streamers still face the challenge of consumers turning to their phones whenever an ad commences. and sure, live sports - especially the National Football League (NFL) - still get impressive ratings, but is a :30 second commercial still an effective way to market a modern consumer? to quote Linda Richman from Coffee Talk: discuss #THEATTENTIONECONOMY

The 2024 upfronts are poised to revolutionize the advertising industry landscape with major players like Netflix, Amazon, and YouTube driving change. Netflix and Amazon's decision to dig into ad-supported content promises immersive experiences, while traditional TV struggles against the allure of sports for advertisers. Ad sales teams prioritize flexibility and transparency to adapt to market shifts. Exciting times lie ahead for media buyers and advertisers; however, I'm not so sure cinephiles would agree. Not only interstitial ad within a movie is a flat-out insult to the creative team (and to the viewer), but also ad-driven content in combination with AI will further drive homogenization of content aesthetics through extreme personalization -I know, sounds like an oxymoron, but it's not. Luckly for true creatives, this might present an opportunity where demand further shifts toward content that is produced and shoot through traditional processes. #Advertising #Media #Streaming #Upfronts2024 #Innovation

Flipside: This Requires Hyper-Targeted Cross APP/Platform Voluntary Data with at Least 100% More Macros Delivered to the Ad Servers to Raise Rates while Bringing in the Largest Players over to Linear who will own the Remnant Fills after Paying Top Dollar for these Targeted Hits! Everything else is BS. Welcome FreeCast! Linear TV Ad Spending Down—As viewers, advertisers, and programmers alike rush to FAST channels and AVOD services, spending on traditional linear TV is down, notching the largest decline since 2017. The recent Hollywood strikes are partly to blame, as advertisers may have shied away from linear TV without the power of new blockbuster content to draw viewers. The lone exception was NFL games, which saw a 22% increase in ad spending. But with traditional TV’s advertising dollars so dependent on sports, this could spell trouble when the sports joint venture between Disney, Fox, and Warner Bros Discovery launches. Another streaming discussion between Disney’s ESPN and the NFL poses a similar threat if that’s still on the table as well.  https://lnkd.in/d5mkCZBp 

The shifting dynamics in the TV advertising market —resulting from the industry challenges in 2023— are increasingly favoring streaming & live, sports & retail, and audience-first content. 📺 "The ability to find ways to connect with an audience while being mindful of context and content continues to expand beyond the TV marketplace," said Diana Bernstein, EVP and Managing Director of Investment, Havas Media Network speaking to ADWEEK. "Advertiser spending moving away from traditional TV into more digital mediums is not new, but areas as to where those ad dollars are now shifting has expanded and put an emphasis on retail media, which is an area of great opportunity," Bernstein continued. Read the full article here: https://lnkd.in/eJgKyzPN #tvadvertising #retailmedia

Viewership is soaring, advertising opportunities are expanding, and new ad technology is making it easier than ever to turn viewers into buyers. This year, we've witnessed a wave of innovation sweeping across the CTV landscape.   Dive into our latest blog to explore the four key trends shaping CTV in 2024: https://lnkd.in/esV4uKbK

I have no doubt that eventually, a relatively reliable system will be figured out to ensure that TV advertisers know whether they’re reaching their most appropriate, potential customers. Since streamers are unlikely to widely share proprietary viewing info, can Mr. Norton and Mr. Nadler’s EDO Company approach be it? Or at least, a fresh-and-viable start? Hmmm… A few vital pieces seem to be missing from EDO Co’s plan as relayed in this brief article, most notably how the referenced “tie” between a specific commercial/program and subsequent search-related data actually functions. Then, how that linkage further relates to sales. Advertisers *need* to be assured that more online searches about a product consistently lead to increased sales/revenue. Though that likely depends on whether a preponderance of top search results 👍 or 👎 their product. Sadly, these judgements could have nothing to do with ads, but arise from the perceived quality of a product via folks who’ve tried it IRL and felt strongly enough about their experience to post it on the internet. “Star” influencers can affect the market, but IMO exceedingly few of them have the reach or longevity to truly compete with television over time. For folks who make/distribute the shows, I guess the crux is whether a spike in searches about a particular episode’s narrative/cast significantly reveals that more eyeballs consumed any particular ad. Perhaps these search-spikes might, since the searching folks seem to have been paying enough attention to the story/characters to want to learn more. Though perhaps some of these online searchers heard about a really cool plot twist from a friend and never watched the show — or saw any ads — at all… There are so many variables in this erratically evolving aspect of the biz! That said, successful “disrupters” inevitably need to stop (mostly) disrupting and get down to the business of business. This means consistent metrics — and a more level playing field — has gotta emerge… Eventually. #entertainment #tv #television #streaming #streamingtv #adsupportedtv #adsupportedstreaming #tvratings #tvmetrics #tvadmetrics #internetsearches #fasttv

The national linear TV advertising marketplace declined 7% during the fourth quarter of 2023 compared with the same quarter in 2022, according to Guideline. The analysis shows demand eroding especially for conventional entertainment programming, which saw ad revenue fall 16% year-over-year vs. live sports, which experienced a gain of 3.2%. Within live sports, high-demand fourth quarter NFL programming jumped 22% in ad revenue. Among key ad categories, only pharmaceutical boosted ad spending on national linear TV outlets, up 3.5% vs. the fourth quarter of 2022. #lineartv #tvadvertising #traditionalmedia #livesports

✅🖥️ Mediapost (3/11 + data tables): “The analysis shows demand eroding especially for conventional entertainment programming, which saw ad revenue fall 16% year-over-year vs. live sports, which experienced a gain of 3.2%. Within live sports, high-demand fourth quarter NFL programming jumped 22% in ad revenue. Among key ad categories, only pharma boosted ad spending on national linear TV outlets, up 3.5% vs. the fourth quarter of 2022. Guideline said, “Live sports ad revenue and market share alike crested, thanks to the NFL, while entertainment programming waned to a trough, amid a challenging climate of labor strikes and streaming services.” Based on Guideline's U.S. Ad Market Tracker, the national TV advertising market index fell to its lowest December ever at the end of 2023 -- an 87.48, down 16% from 104.15 in December 2017, the first year Guideline began tracking it.” ⬇️ #nfl #lineartv #streamingtv #livesports https://lnkd.in/eX62BN2G