CNBC International’s Post

It is a result that has taken France wholly by surprise. ⁠ ⁠ The left-wing New Popular Front (NFP), dominated by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, looks poised to become the biggest bloc in parliament after final-round voting at legislative elections closed.⁠ ⁠ Projections by Ipsos, based on early results, gave the NFP 171-187 seats in the 577-seat National Assembly. This would still be far short of the 289 seats needed to control the lower house. ⁠ ⁠ The results contained surprises all round. Marine Le Pen’s hard-right National Rally and friends, which polls had suggested would top voting, is on course to become only the third-biggest parliamentary bloc.⁠ ⁠ For President Emmanuel Macron, the result will come as something of a relief. Ipsos projections suggest that Ensemble, his centrist coalition, will hold on to 152-163 seats. ⁠ ⁠ Ultimately though, voters have returned a badly hung parliament. To learn why this means France is now set for a period of uncertainty and political manoeuvring.

The establishment is in full panic mode right now. People are clearly rejecting the establishment. Exit polls show that Marine Le Pen’s right-wing National Rally party is set to win the first round in the French elections with over 34% of the votes. It seems likely that they will even get an absolute majority in the parliament, which would be huge. A poll from Elabe predicts they will get between 260 to 310 seats, with 289 needed for a majority. President Macrons party coming in third place with only 20%. Marine Le Pen herself was re-elected as an MP, winning 58% of the votes in her area. In another shock of the election night, the leader of the French Communist party was DEFEATED massively in his own seat – Losing to the right-wing candidate who got 58% of votes. This is a historic day not only for France, but also for Europe and the West. The French will vote again in the second round which will decide how many seats they will eventually get, so this is not over yet. #Anti-democratic #far_left #extremists are already out rioting in France because they are mad that the right won, with police being mobilized to protect government buildings. You won’t hear anything about the #far_left #riots on the mainstream media. The fact is, the turnout for this election was huge, with the biggest highest turnout in 40 years. And who did the people democratically vote for? They voted massively for the right-wing party. Seems like the #far_left are having trouble #respecting the #democratic_will of the people. https://lnkd.in/e6eYF-Tu

France's recent legislative election has resulted in a divided National Assembly with no clear governing majority. Three ideologically divided blocks are vying for power, making government formation a complex puzzle. Potential government formations, including a NPF minority government, moderate coalition, and center-right minority government, face significant challenges and uncertainties. The situation is further complicated by Macron's Alliance being on the brink of splintering, and the Constitution preventing a legislative election within a year. This could lead to a period of instability and uncertainty, with no clear direction for the country. Alternative options, such as appointing a technocrat prime minister or dissolving the National Assembly and calling for new elections, are being considered. However, the outcome is uncertain, and Macron's leadership will be crucial in determining France's future direction. Please read the full article at the link below. Read “France’s Political Gridlock: A Crisis of Uncertainty“ by Amaanullah Bhatti (Hafzan Osmanoğlu) on Medium: https://lnkd.in/dpc8sEDM

It has been a while since I last posted, but recently, the rise of far-right parties in Europe has been on my mind. Immigration, security concerns, and cultural and identity issues are deeply rooted factors fueling the rise of far-right movements in Europe. The influx of immigrants, particularly during crises, has sparked debates over national identity, cultural preservation, and integration, leading to increased xenophobia and anti-immigrant sentiments. Far-right parties exploit these fears, positioning themselves as protectors of traditional values and national identity against perceived threats. Additionally, terrorist attacks and crime levels have heightened security risks, with the far right advocating for strict immigration and law enforcement as solutions. This article by foreign policy is a good read to have a better idea of what is anticipated to happen in Europe in the coming months.

As speculations abound about the outcome of the #EuropeanElections , a few fundamentals: 1. The incoming Commission does not need a permanent parliamentary majority to be elected and remain in place. The parliament’s vote takes place in a secret ballot, allowing MEPs to depart from their leaders’ instructions (as some S&D voting against VdL and Pis/5Stars for Vdl in 2019) making it unpredictable by design. 2. The next parliamentary majority will be of ‘variable geometry’ and varies on a case by base basis depending on the file being presented by the new EU Commission 3. The normalization of the far-right hasn’t occurred at EU level - but only party at Member State level. Will the EU elections change that? That’s the question to be asked. https://lnkd.in/deSYVT6K #europeanelections #ep2024 #europe

Great column in the FT >>> France and Britain are changing places "Britain and France are sitting on opposite ends of a political see-saw. Three days after the UK elected a pragmatic, centrist government with a huge majority, France went to the opposite extreme. Sunday’s legislative elections have produced a deadlocked parliament, with both the far right and the far left gaining ground. (...) Relief that the far-right Rassemblement National performed worse than expected in the second round of voting cannot disguise the fact that the centre ground in French politics is shrinking — and with it the authority of President Emmanuel Macron. The calm of London on election night last week contrasted strongly with the fevered atmosphere in Paris on Sunday evening. (...) it may be many months before France has a government that is capable of delivering a coherent response on European questions. That will be a problem, not just for Britain but for the whole of the EU," LINK TO THE ARTICLE >>> https://lnkd.in/eaMy_zCQ

Is the EU democratic? We elect the members of the European Parliament, and our governments represent us in the Council. Yet there is also frequent criticism of the ‘unelected technocrats’ who draft European policies. Why is the EU governed like this, and how has its relation to democracy evolved over time? In an upcoming lecture, Koen van Zon will discuss these questions, and also look at the state of EU democracy as the European elections draw near. On the 29th of April, Studio Europa Maastricht organises the third edition of the Maastricht Debate, in cooperation with POLITICO. In the largest European election debate, ahead of the European elections, Europe’s leading candidates will take the stage in Theater aan het Vrijthof to discuss the concerns of young voters. In parallel, a free debate watch party will take place on the Vrijthof Square. Make sure to be there! Keep an eye on the debate website for regular updates. The Maastricht Debate is an initiative of Maastricht University and supported by the Province of Limburg, City of Maastricht and the European Parliament. @Studium Generale Maastricht University #WorkingonEurope #MaastrichtDebate

In the recently concluded election for the #EuropeanParliament the right wing populists and far-right parties improved their performances both in terms of vote percentage and seat sharing. In #Germany and #France, the far-right parties have jolted the mainstream liberal, socialist and centrist parties, while in #Italy, Prime Minister Georgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy emerged as the largest party with 24 seats, significantly boosting her position in domestic as well as #EUPolitics. Such has been the impact of Marine Le Pen’s National Rally in France (winning 30 of France’s 81 seats in the EP) that President Macron had to dissolve the National Assembly and call for snap elections. Read #ICWAIssueBrief on “The Far-right in the European Parliament and their Agenda for Europe” by Aman Kumar, Research Associate, ICWA. Click 👉 bit.ly/3WplsCd This #ICWA paper was written before the conduct of the second round of election in France and the formation of the Patriot for Europe as the new far-right group in the European Parliament (EP). It talks about the Identity and Democracy group which represented 9 far-right parties in the EP (2019-2024) and was home to far-right parties such as the National Rally of France, which has now joined the Patriots for Europe group. Although the dynamics has changed inside the EP the agenda and world-view of the far-right parties remain unchanged. In fact with the coming together of these far-right parties on one platform i.e the Patriots of Europe they are more united and will be a potent force in the EP for the next five years as the third largest political group inside the EP.

#Decency NEEDS Anchoring, Coaching, Networking, Resiliency...especially in 🇩🇪Germany: Read Financial Times Journalist Sam Jones' article: Germany’s political fragmentation ‘frighteningly similar’ to 1930s https://lnkd.in/ebZND7wp #MainPoints: ‣ Germany's voters are abandoning mainstream parties and flocking to fringe and radical movements ‣ Almost one in five Germans say they will now vote for a fringe party, according to Forsa, compared with one in eight in the 2021 federal election ‣ the AfD’s core support base remains strong — particularly in eastern German states, where more than one in three still say they will vote for the party ‣ in upcoming state elections in Brandenburg, Saxony and Thuringia this autumn, the AfD is expected to come first, putting it in a position to lead regional governments ‣ “Due to the dissatisfaction with the incumbent federal government, which will most likely continue until 2025, the fragmentation of the German party system is likely to continue,” the Forsa Institute said in its analysis