International Crisis Group’s Post

Update: #Libya #LNA #GNA The House of Representatives, headed by Aguila Salah, voted today to end the term of the #Dabaiba government and recognize the #Libyan government led by #OsamaHamad as the legitimate authority until a unified government is formed. Additionally, the Council has declared the House of Representatives as the Supreme Commander of the Army, as outlined in the Constitutional Declaration. This decision is likely to escalate tensions in #Libya, increasing the risk of further political fragmentation. The unilateral nature of this move could have significant military implications, particularly as recent mobilizations suggest rising tensions. The designation of the House of Representatives as the "Supreme Commander of the Army" could deepen existing divisions within the military, potentially leading to power struggles that have historically fueled internal conflict in Libya. Since 2011, Libya has been plagued by instability, armed conflict, and humanitarian crises. Actions perceived as unilateral or illegitimate by key factions threaten to undermine ongoing efforts for peace and stability, with potential repercussions extending throughout North and Central Africa.

#Sudan – 365 days of war On 15 April, Sudan marked the first anniversary of the outbreak of conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitary force. To date, the conflict has killed more than 15,000 people, displaced 8.5 million others, and rendered half of the population food-insecure. The dynamism of the conflict and the unwillingness of belligerent forces to comply with the demands of external mediators continue to obstruct peace initiatives. Barring any major shift in the balance of the conflict, which is not immediately anticipated, both the SAF and RSF will continue to view violence as the primary means of achieving their mutually exclusive objectives. The continuation of conflict will further undermine social, political, and economic conditions in Sudan and impede the potential for brokering a binding peace agreement. Our latest via #TheSignalRoom: https://lnkd.in/dfRqP-26

PRO-IRANIAN - IRAQI MILITIAS ENTER SYRIA CONFLICT - (2 Clips) - 1. Pro-Iranian militias enter Syria from Iraq to aid beleaguered Syrian army - ranian-backed militias entered Syria overnight from Iraq and were heading to northern Syria to beef up beleaguered Syrian army forces battling insurgents, according to two Syrian army sources.Dozens of Iran-aligned Iraqi Hashd al Shaabi fighters from Iraq also crossed into Syria through a military route near Al Bukamal crossing, a senior Syrian army source told Reuters https://lnkd.in/e9DnXeud 2. Iraqi militias deploy in Syria to back government’s counteroffensive against insurgents - According to Britain-based opposition war monitor the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, some 200 Iraqi militiamen on pickups crossed into Syria overnight through the strategic Bou Kamal crossing. They were expected to deploy in Aleppo to support the Syrian army’s pushback against the insurgents, the monitor said. - https://lnkd.in/e2C6M2Mr

#Sudan – 365 days of war On 15 April, Sudan marked the first anniversary of the outbreak of conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitary force. To date, the conflict has killed more than 15,000 people, displaced 8.5 million others, and rendered half of the population food-insecure. The dynamism of the conflict and the unwillingness of belligerent forces to comply with the demands of external mediators continue to obstruct peace initiatives. Barring any major shift in the balance of the conflict, which is not immediately anticipated, both the SAF and RSF will continue to view violence as the primary means of achieving their mutually exclusive objectives. The continuation of conflict will further undermine social, political, and economic conditions in Sudan and impede the potential for brokering a binding peace agreement. Our latest via #TheSignalRoom: https://lnkd.in/dmh7eCSA

Since fighting first broke out between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on 15 April, ACLED records 5,550 events of political violence and more than 15,550 reported fatalities in Sudan. Between 15 April 2023 and 5 April 2024, the most political violence was recorded in Khartoum state, with over 3,660 events and over 7,050 reported fatalities. In all of Sudan, ACLED records over 1,400 violent events targeting civilians since the war began. Civilians in Khartoum state faced the most targeted violence, with more than 650 incidents and at least 1,470 reported fatalities. 

One Year of War in #Sudan. From 15 April 2023 to 5 April 2024, #ACLED has recorded a total of 5,550 political violence events and over 15,550 fatalities in Sudan, marking a turbulent year of ongoing conflict. The majority of these incidents occurred in Khartoum state, which alone witnessed 3,660 violent events resulting in more than 7,050 deaths. Our newest report provides a clear view of the intensity and deadly nature of the conflict zones, especially in urban centers such as the Khartoum tri-city area where military and paramilitary forces continue to clash fiercely. Swipe through to read the report and gain a deeper understanding of the conflict ➡ https://lnkd.in/ey3vaK2J

In light of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, Cyprus is taking preparatory measures for potential evacuations from Lebanon and Israel. Given its proximity to Beirut — just 10 hours by sea or 40 minutes by plane — it's poised to serve as an evacuation hub for several nations. The UK declared this week that it would deploy 700 soldiers to its bases in Dhekelia and Akrotiri, Cyprus. Since Cyprus attained independence in 1960, these sites have served as crucial military and intelligence facilities. The issue does not concern the evacuation plans themselves, but rather the extent to which the bases are supporting Israel's military efforts. Since 7 October, there have been clashes between Israel and Hizbollah after Hizbollah backed Hamas. Tensions have risen since the killing of Hassan Nasrallah, which has raised concerns about the safety of civilians and prompted some to seek refuge in Cyprus. During the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah, Cyprus was instrumental in the evacuation of almost 60,000 persons. Large-scale evacuations may take place if Israel invades southern Lebanon and Hizbollah retaliates; up to 100,000 people may use Cyprus as a transit hub for 24 to 48 hours. ✍🏻 Check out the insightful commentary by Andria Kades here https://lnkd.in/dhtR-ttC

It has been one year and tensions between the RSF and SAF keep escalating in Sudan. What initially started as a struggle for power between the two forces, evolved into a multifaceted civil war involving various militia and rebel groups, along with their foreign backers. In the Horn of Africa, Sudan's instability threatens to worsen existing tensions and could potentially spill over into neighboring territories.   South Sudan, already struggling with its own internal conflicts, risks further destabilization as mass number of refugees seek safety in South Sudan. The already existing deplorable economic situation in South Sudan is hit hard by the absence of oil revenues, among other factors. Ethiopia faces uncertainty as well, as it is challenged with the regional security while managing internal political tensions.   Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) shared a detailed report of the war so far, it provides a clear view of the intensity of the conflict zones. You may find the full report here: https://lnkd.in/ey3vaK2J   #SudanConflict #HornOfAfrica #RegionalSecurity #Sudan #Khartoum #AU #AfricanUnion #IGAD #RSF #SAF Rene Marchal Roan Dijkstra Ebru F. Uçan Desalegn Tesfaye

Special Report: The Implications of War and Multiple Armies in Eastern Sudan Eastern Sudan was not directly affected by the war when it broke out on April 15, 2023, but the side effects related to its social, political, and economic repercussions affected the region like other regions of Sudan. As the war expanded and approached the borders of the region, the state of mobilization and calls for arms increased, and the state of military readiness increased with the arrival of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on the outskirts of Gedaref State. This report analyzes the political situation in Eastern Sudan and the impact of the formation of tribal armies on stability in the states of Kassala, Gedaref, and the Red Sea after the April 15 war between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). YCON conducted interviews with political actors, activists, and some civil society organizations, in addition to organizing focus group discussions with actors from Eastern Sudan. Download and read the report in English: https://bit.ly/3RNWqKg #YCON #Sudan #KeepEyesOnSudan

Special Report: The Implications of War and Multiple Armies in Eastern Sudan Eastern Sudan was not directly affected by the war when it broke out on April 15, 2023, but the side effects related to its social, political, and economic repercussions affected the region like other regions of Sudan. As the war expanded and approached the borders of the region, the state of mobilization and calls for arms increased, and the state of military readiness increased with the arrival of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on the outskirts of Gedaref State. This report analyzes the political situation in Eastern Sudan and the impact of the formation of tribal armies on stability in the states of Kassala, Gedaref, and the Red Sea after the April 15 war between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). YCON conducted interviews with political actors, activists, and some civil society organizations, in addition to organizing focus group discussions with actors from Eastern Sudan. Download and read the report in English: https://bit.ly/3RNWqKg #YCON #Sudan #KeepEyesOnSudan