International Crisis Group’s Post

Looking forward to this important International Crisis Group event at Chatham House next week, even if slightly unsettled by the fact that I've worked on strategic tourism plans for more than half the countries on the Watch List! However, just as #conflict harms #tourism, planning for post-conflict tourism can massively contribute to early economic recovery and national reconciliation, especially when focused on #food, #heritage and cultural identity. UNESCO UN Tourism

It’s been one year since the October 7th attack on Israel by Hamas, and the last 12 months has seen an escalation and widening of the conflict across the Middle East. As we consider the impact of such violence and terror, we also acknowledge the sustained risks of traveling to or operating in the region.   In a roundtable discussion, Global Guardian leaders gathered to discuss the ongoing conflict, as well as what the future could hold — and how businesses can operate safely and effectively while world leaders search for solutions. Read the roundtable at: https://lnkd.in/gerPmCQf

Rational Models and the Ending of Wars C. R. Mitchell and Michael Nicholson The Journal of Conflict Resolution Vol. 27, No. 3, Sep., 1983 >The National Interest, state behaviour, expected utility and the ending of wars.... https://lnkd.in/dVpUwX3A +Russia -Ukraine Conflict and the Issue of the Necessity of Going to War as Reflected through Thucydides Narrative of the Causes of the Peloponnesian War https://lnkd.in/dU_rgSfY +Economic Interdependence & International Conflict: Some Cross-National Evidence https://lnkd.in/dNcWRvKT

In this latest episode of Unraveled With Marvi Sirmed, Dr. Kamran Bokhari, Senior Director, Eurasian Security & Prosperity at New Lines Institute for Strategy & Policy, discusses the significant repercussions of Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh’s assassination in Iran. Dr. Bokhari explains why Israel has not claimed responsibility for the attack and also how Israel was able to carry out the operation. Watch full interview here: https://lnkd.in/d_DEK_DF

As 2024 draws to a close, I find myself reflecting on a year that was as vicious as it was volatile. Conflict surged by 25%, bombings dominated as the most frequent form of violence, and nearly 200,000 political violence events were recorded worldwide. Palestine emerged as the most dangerous place, with over 35,000 fatalities in 12 months, while Ukraine remained the deadliest conflict globally. In this month's newsletter, I unpack these trends and their implications for 2025, drawing from ACLED's Conflict Index and Watchlist. From Myanmar’s fractured armed groups to the chaotic implications of Trump’s re-election, it’s clear the global conflict landscape is evolving faster than ever—and unpredictably. I also share personal reflections on how analysts should navigate these challenging times: as reliable narrators who put evidence first. No thumbs on the scale. Have a full read: https://lnkd.in/ez7JHeu5

This week the biggest news is the assassination of Hamas' top political leader Mr Haniyeh who was to attend the inauguration of Iran's new president in Tehran. Iran has vowed revenge but how? Will Haniyeh's death inflame tensions and spark a regional Middle East war? What about the negotiations between Israel and Hamas? In this episode of Dialogue, we talked to Ali Akbar Dareini, researcher and writer at the Journal of the Center for Strategic Studies in Tehran and Zhou Bo, senior fellow at the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University. https://lnkd.in/gyprTTmg

Stop Attacking Israel: The Solution to Middle East Problems In this video, we discuss the controversial topic of Middle East conflicts and propose a solution of ending attacks on Israel. Join the conversation as we analyze the views of Bill Maher and explore alternative perspectives. #MiddleEastConflicts #IsraelPalestine #BillMaher #PeacefulSolutions #EndingAttacks #AlternativePerspectives #MiddleEastPeace #PoliticalDiscussions #GlobalIssues #WorldNews

Another comprehensive and thoughtful overview by Geopolitical Dispatch .  Note the insightful comment about Ben Gvir… #geopolitics #globalbusiness #Equitymarkets

Join us in person at our London offices or virtually on December 12 for the launch of the #ArmedConflictSurvey2024. In an increasingly #conflict-ridden world, understanding the domestic and #geopolitical drivers of active conflicts—and their repercussions—is more critical than ever. This year’s report reveals alarming trends: escalating #human costs and violence intensity, prolonged and intractable conflicts involving a growing number of parties, and a deepening crisis in #globalgovernance. It highlights the erosion of #internationalhumanitarianlaw, the rise of #nonstatearmedgroups as significant geo-economic players with their own #foreignpolicy agendas, and the dual role of the accelerating climate crisis as both a driver and consequence of conflict. The report also features spotlight essays on: The globalisation of #Mexican #drugtraffickingorganisations Controlled instability in the #WesternBalkans #Iran's geopolitical strategies in the #MiddleEast The #Ethiopia–Somaliland Memorandum of Understanding and its regional implications Prospects for reintegrating #Afghanistan into the international community We will be discussing this trends and more with my International Institute for Strategic Studies colleagues and regional experts Benjamin Petrini, Nigel Gould-Davies, Rahul Roy-Chaudhury and John Raine. A heartfelt thanks and congratulations to the ACS team and our exceptional contributors worldwide! #GlobalSecurity #ConflictAnalysis #Geopolitics https://lnkd.in/eQBwiV-m

Great talk with prof. Niall Ferguson - as always ! How can the West deal with the geopolitical and ideological threats posed by what Ferguson calls the axis of ill will – Russia, China and Iran? ‘The point of studying the past is to understand our present predicament’ – Niall Ferguson In April 2024 Ferguson joined us on the Intelligence Squared stage to discuss the predicaments we are currently facing. How can the West deal with the geopolitical and ideological threats posed by what Ferguson calls the axis of ill will – Russia, China and Iran? With localised wars in Ukraine and Israel-Gaza and the threat of a crisis over Taiwan, are we sleepwalking towards a Third World War? And what are the likely consequences of the ongoing conflicts for the world economy? Ferguson explored these pressing questions and shares his insights into the fast-changing global landscape. Link: https://lnkd.in/dFKtf_3D