International Crisis Group

Rwandan-backed M23 rebels have captured Goma, eastern Congo’s biggest city, putting the Great Lakes on the edge of a wider war. Over two million people have been displaced, leaving thousands vulnerable to attacks by militias. Rwanda and the M23 now control practically all of North Kivu province and by force of arms have forged a new reality in the region. Worse could well be on the way. 📌 New statement:  https://lnkd.in/eK3CRgEJ

Upcoming Event | Ten Conflicts to Watch in 2025 📍Chatham House and Online ⏰ 4 February | 6pm London | 7pm Brussels | 1pm Washington DC Each year, Crisis Group compiles a list of the ten conflicts to watch that examines key conflict situations across the globe. In this online event, our president and CEO Dr Comfort Ero will discuss today’s and tomorrow’s most pressing wars and crises with Dr. Samir Puri, Research Director for the Centre for Global Governance and Security. The conversation will focus on how the new U.S. president will impact wars around the world in the upcoming year, prospects of peace in Ukraine and the Middle East, and forgotten conflicts on the global stage. 🗓 Registration:  https://lnkd.in/eqbGkqGG The event will be held in English and live-streamed on YouTube.

In unsettled times, U.S. President Donald Trump’s return to the White House looks set to shake things up further. As the pace of change picks up, the world seems primed for a paradigm shift. The question is whether it will happen at the negotiating table or on the battlefield. Here are International Crisis Group’s Ten Conflicts to Watch in 2025. 📌 For more information, read the written publication:  https://lnkd.in/eh-aP3R7

🗞️ This Week in Conflict | Understanding the Israel-Hamas Truce We also published a briefing on pathways to peace in Sudan, along with videos on Mali’s sovereign turn and our 10 Conflicts to Watch in 2025. Don’t miss the latest Hold Your Fire! episode on Syria’s future and a discussion on Donald Trump’s foreign policy in Africa on our francophone podcast, Afrique 360°.

Depuis 2021, les nouvelles autorités du Mali ont fait du souverainisme leur véritable lance de fer. Dans cette vidéo, Ibrahim Maiga décrypte l'impact sur la politique interne et les relations externes du pays. ---------- Since taking power in 2021, Mali’s rulers have made strengthening state sovereignty their central political project. In this video, Ibrahim Maiga examines its impact on the country's domestic policy and foreign relations.

Sudan’s disastrous civil war continues with no end in sight. After a year and a half of fighting, the conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces has triggered the world’s largest humanitarian crisis, displacing nearly ten million people and pushing millions more into severe hunger. Despite repeated efforts, attempts to end the fighting have failed but are more urgent than ever. Outside actors with the biggest stakes in the war— notably Türkiye, Egypt and the UAE, with backing from Saudi Arabia and the U.S. – should lean on the parties to come back to the table and agree to a ceasefire. To do so, the mediators will also need to offer a vision of how the country will be governed after the war ends. 📌New briefing:  https://lnkd.in/eJaDpAya

A deal has been reached to halt the war that has devastated the Gaza Strip and to return many of the Israelis held captive there. Anyone concerned about the vast loss of Palestinian life, the suffering of Israeli captives in Gaza and the receding prospects for a peaceful future must be relieved that a deal has finally been reached. But the deal is ambiguous about when or whether the war will end. It is silent on consequential humanitarian, security and political questions, either deferring discussion of those issues to later phases or omitting mention of them entirely. A limited agreement is better than none at all. But for the deal to match the hopes it has raised, it needs to establish mechanisms for sustained humanitarian access, stable arrangements for security and public order, clear timelines for Israeli military withdrawal, and a path toward longer-term stability and governance in Gaza. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts lay out the ceasefire agreement’s contents and gauge its prospects for success. https://lnkd.in/eCBHiirG

As the snow falls in Davos, so do the big ideas. This year’s World Economic Forum has brought together leaders, protestors, CEOs, and policymakers to tackle everything from climate risks to trade wars and the shifting global power balance. Here are six key takeaways from the discussions shaping 2025 and beyond. International Crisis Group Thanks to Moderate The Panel and Reuters Plus for getting me here! And to Goals House for inviting me to speak.

Sudan’s devastating civil war has triggered the world’s largest humanitarian crisis, displacing nearly ten million people and pushing millions more into severe hunger. But the war’s main belligerents, the Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, lack the means to win, the willingness to compromise and any regard for the misery their conduct is leaving in its wake. Left unchecked, the war will only spread, engulfing more of the country and maybe soon expanding beyond its borders. Türkiye, which in December 2024 offered itself up as a mediator, appears for now well positioned to marshal talks. Both Abu Dhabi, which heavily supports the RSF (and should press it to engage), and the Sudanese army have accepted Ankara’s offer to mediate. Egypt, which backs the army, also has an essential role to play: it should rally behind the Turkish effort, as should the U.S. and Saudi Arabia. 📌 Read our new briefing “Sudan’s Calamitous War: Finding a Path toward Peace”, available online: https://lnkd.in/eBqQXJp5

We International Crisis Group just published a new briefing on the situation in #Sudan where the devastating civil war rages on, triggering the world’s largest humanitarian crisis. After a year and a half of fighting, Sudan’s war has exacted a grim toll. Nearly ten million people are displaced and twenty-six million people - more than half the country’s pre-war population - are facing acute food shortages. Left to their own devices, the two warring parties seem likely to keep shooting. Both have received copious amounts of foreign armaments, but neither has been able to deliver a knockout blow. The outside countries that have led or played a central role in ceasefire discussions should renew efforts to convene the parties for talks (likely behind closed doors, at first, given the bad blood on all sides.) Though these outside powers have divergent interests, the conflict parties’ biggest backers should also want to keep Sudan from splintering further. A quieting of the guns could preserve the chances of saving the Sudanese state while eliminating a source of regional instability and preventing greater human misery. https://lnkd.in/e7WefN6a