Dovrat - Lang’s Post

🚧 Deceleration looming 🐌 💡 The HCMC economy is likely to grow at 6% in the second quarter, down from 6.54% in the first, the municipal Statistics Office has said. ❓ The economy has not shown signs of a breakthrough this year, and the growth of some sectors has slowed down, Nguyen Khac Hoang, director of the office, said at a People’s Committee meeting on Friday. 💵 Public spending has also slowed down in the second quarter. The State Treasury Department reported that weekly disbursements never exceeded VND200 billion (US$7.86 million) in April or May. ♻️ Nguyen Ngoc Hoa, chairman of the HCMC Business Association, said exporters have enough orders for the second quarter, but face difficulties in meeting green standards. This could lead to a decline in orders towards year-end, he warned. 🚀 To boost economic growth, he suggested focusing on domestic consumption by running promotions to spur consumer spending and solutions to foster wet markets. 🛒 Concurring, Bui Ta Hoang Vu, director of the city Department of Industry and Trade, revealed a two-phase shopping stimulus program is planned for the next four to five months. 💚 Truong Minh Huy Vu, deputy director of the HCMC Institute of Development Studies, said the city should boost digital transformation, green transition and labor productivity. ⏪ Dr Tran Du Lich said Vietnam’s economy would remain sluggish the rest of this year and possibly next year too. He recommended improving the efficiency of government agencies to address businesses’ difficulties. "Without breakthrough changes in operations, it is impossible to develop [the economy]." 🗣️ Phan Van Mai, chairman of the city People's Committee, said public investment must be accelerated. "We need to focus on implementing key projects and administrative reforms." https://lnkd.in/gey2e3fQ

Poland records EU’s fastest GDP growth Poland recorded the EU’s largest annual and quarterly GDP growth in the second quarter of 2024, new Eurostat figures show. In annual terms, Poland’s economy grew 4%, ahead of Cyprus (3.7%) and Spain (2.9%). Five countries saw their economies shrink: Estonia (-1.7%), Ireland (-1.4%), Finland (-0.7%), Latvia (-0.4%) and the EU’s largest economy, Germany (-0.1%). The EU’s economy as a whole grew by 0.8% On a quarterly basis, Poland’s GDP rose by 1.5%, compared to 0.3% for the EU as a whole, show the Eurostat figures published today, which are based on seasonally adjusted data and cover 22 of the bloc’s 27 member states. https://lnkd.in/endwmphE

What if the Nordic countries of Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Finland and Iceland united and formed one power block in Northern Europe? Such a 'United Nordics' would be an economic force to be reckoned with. While full-year 2023 GDP rankings aren’t finalized, estimates indicate a total combined GDP well over $1.6 trillion (USD). The would likely places the United Nordics close to the top 10 largest economies globally. https://lnkd.in/dc_VgX7S

In the last quarter of 2023, the Hungarian economy faced challenges with a modest year-on-year growth of 0.4% and stagnation on a quarterly basis. Minister of National Economy Márton Nagy cited weak external demand, particularly from key export markets like Germany, as a primary factor for the slowdown. Amid challenges in the final quarter of […] The post Minister of National Economy Says Slowdown in GDP is Temporary appeared first on Hungary Today.

Economic momentum in the Eurozone is steadily weakening, as recent data continues to fall short of expectations. Q2 GDP growth shows limited upside potential, with manufacturing sliding further into contraction, making the economy increasingly reliant on the services sector. Meanwhile, consumer spending remains sluggish despite significant wage increases, with declining confidence signaling distress. The Eurozone's retail trade remained weak in June, indicating a slower-than-expected recovery, as volumes didn't increase. Although consumers still favor services over goods, the gap between the two is narrowing. Industrial production continues to contract with little evidence of the turnaround. The latest data showed 0.1% monthly decline, a continuation of contraction started in September 2022. New orders continue to contract due to the weak demand and increasing cost pressures, making it hard to pass those costs on consumers. In Germany, industrial data presented a mixed picture. Exports declined, highlighting structural weaknesses, but industrial production showed improvement, particularly in the auto sector. While this rebound offers some hope for a slight recovery, the industry continues to grapple with challenges such as limited access to affordable energy and major export markets, keeping industrial production 10% below pre-pandemic levels. Additionally, new orders remain weak, and inventory levels are high, diminishing the prospects for an export-led recovery. In Italy, industrial production rose for the second consecutive month, marking the first such increase since June 2023, driven by investment goods. Although new orders continue to contract, the growth is fueled by exports, suggesting that industrial production is stabilizing rather than signaling the start of a recovery. Employment remains stable but is beginning to cool as businesses slow hiring due to growing concerns about economic weakness. Simultaneously, economic sentiment has sharply declined, marking the steepest drop since July 2022. The outlook for Germany is particularly grim, especially for export-driven industries. Economic expectations are being weighed down by uncertain monetary policy and increasing concerns about the escalating conflict in the Middle East.

The debt-based capitalist system has collapsed. Germany, the world’s fourth-largest economy, just behind Japan, is currently grappling with a severe economic depression. Germany is now expecting its economy to contract by 0.2% in 2024, marking the second consecutive year of decline, in contrast to its earlier forecast of 0.3% growth. "Rather than gaining momentum, the economy continues to be characterized by a general reluctance among consumers to spend." However, Germany projects a modest recovery with 1.1% growth expected next year, up from the previous forecast of 1%. By 2026, the economy is anticipated to expand by 1.6%. Since the 2008 financial crisis, predominantly capitalist countries, including many developed nations, have endured a prolonged economic downturn, with no realistic hope of returning to pre-2007 levels before 2035. Japan’s public debt stands at a staggering 260% of its GDP, while the UK and France each face a public debt burden of 115% of their GDP. Similarly, the United States is grappling with a significant public debt level, amounting to 150% of its GDP.

Life at office on economy SET Index stood over 1,400 a day before the announcement of Digital Wallet Scheme. However, analysts estimated that the uncertainty is still ahead since the Thai economy has not fully recovered yet due to the delay of annual fiscal budget. The supporting factor is the recovery of Chinese tourist to Thailand closed to Pre-Covid period (as of Feb 2024, Chinese tourists were 71% of avg. Chinese tourist in the year of 2019) Digital Wallet announcement : Digital Wallet scheme coming in Q4 : Based on the announced criteria, approximately 50 million people will be eligible to receive 10,000 THB each. The government expects that the policy would boost the economic growth by 1.2 to 1.6%. The 500 billion THB scheme will be rolled out in the Q4 of this year. Thai MPC's decision for policy rate : Monetary Policy Committee’s Decision 2/2024 : The Committee voted 5 to 2 to maintain the policy rate at 2.50 percent. Two MPC members voted to cut the policy rate by 0.25 percentage point. Please see more detail in the attached file Thai BMA released the MPC's rate cut survey result in which the rate cut would be at the earliest on June 2024 by 0.25% and probably cut 2 times by 0.5% for this year. US Headline CPI increased and lower chance for FED rate cut in June (waiting the report) US nonfarm payrolls increased 303,000 above the market expectation (205,000) Gold shatters to new records ($2,365) as Middleest tension increased, after the Iran announced to retaliate to Israel in response to the attack of Iran's Embassy in Syria.

SIGNAL: The Spanish government has raised its GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 2.4% and 2.2% respectively, Economy Minister Carlos Cuerpo said on Tuesday, as the country's economy outpaces its euro zone peers. The government has hiked its forecasts for the two years by 0.2 percentage points, Cuerpo said in a news conference. "The factors that will drive the growth of GDP in 2025 and 2026 will be private consumption and investment," he said. - - - Tags: economics - - - What is this? Signals are part of Adventuring Ventures' research methodology for exploring possible futures. A signal is a small or local phenomenon and a potential sign of change that might grow in scale, where it shows up, or who it influences. The tags refer to 5 lenses through which we look for signals - society, technology, economics, ecology, and policy. - - -

The UK's expected slow economic growth is concerning, with the OECD forecasting just a 1% rise in GDP for 2025. Ongoing issues like past interest rate hikes and persistent inflation are weighing on our economy, as seen in this year's growth forecast of only 0.4%. While the government's tax cuts and investment incentives aim to help, more comprehensive strategies might be needed. What do you think the government needs to do to turn this around?

China’s Premier Li Qiang speaks during the 54th annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, January 16, 2024.  Denis Balibouse | Reuters BEIJING — China set a growth target of “around 5%” for 2024, according to the “Government Work Report” released Tuesday. The targets for GDP and other economic indicators were published as part of the opening of the National People’s Congress annual meeting. Last year China’s economy grew by 5.2%, matching the official target of around 5%. The overall rebound from the pandemic was slower than many expected, while growth also faced drags from a slump in real estate and exports. The target for this year largely matches expectations as economists also expected the government to modestly increase the official fiscal deficit to above 3%. Investors will also watch the work report and government commentary for any clues on policy support for property and other parts of the economy. China plans to target an urban unemployment rate of around 5.5%, the creation of 12 million new urban jobs and a consumer price index increase of around 3%. The 2024 targets were the same as those set for 2023. In 2023, the National Bureau of Statistics said the country averaged a 5.2% unemployment rate in cities and created 12.44 million jobs. However, the consumer price index rose by 0.2% amid lackluster demand. The work report emphasized the need to “ensure both high-quality development and greater security,” preventing risks and maintaining social stability, among other tasks. It called for implementing the decisions and plans of the Communist Party of China’s Central Committee. China’s economic policies for the year ahead are typically discussed by top party leaders in December. Local governments hold their own meetings to set regional growth targets, before the National People’s Congress announces the goal for the entire country. Beijing in recent years has downplayed the number in favor of what it calls “high-quality” growth. The work report said that “internal drivers of development are being built up,” but added the country should be “well prepared for all risks and challenges.” This is breaking news. Please check back for updates. Source link