Edmond Hardy, PMP’s Post

🌟 Fresh from Taiwan! #NABEA member, Leland Lazarus recently returned from a transformative policy delegation to Taiwan, organized by the German Marshall Fund of the United States. He and his fellow specialists engaged deeply with local leaders to forge stronger ties between Taiwan, the US, and Europe. Dive into their comprehensive report detailing policy recommendations and the strategic importance of Taiwan in global affairs. A must-read for those interested in international relations and Asian studies! 🌏📖 https://lnkd.in/em638_5e

Despite the declaration of “limitless partnership” there are obvious limitations to Sino-Russian” cooperation: historical territorial claims, population disparity, espionage and technology transfer, conflicting interests in Central Asia and the Arctic, trust and distrust issues, and a seniority dilemma caused by China’s ascent and Russia’s decline, to name just a few. Frank Juris's essay focuses on the rationale for cooperation as seen by Chinese scholars who are assessing Russia’s strategic use for China in its rise to global dominance. It is difficult to assess how widespread these ideas are and how much traction they have received in Beijing, but they are nevertheless important for understanding the significance of Sino-Russian cooperation and the PRC’s continuing and deepening support for Russia in the war in Ukraine. #TSICommentaries #TSIWeekly20240922 #TSIChinaRussia #ChinaFp #TSIChinaFP #ChinaRussiaRelations

In "Cold War With China Is Not in Our Best Interest," economist Dean Baker argues that we should actively pursue policies in the national interest, not intentionally inflame tensions at the expense of international cooperation. Taking some issues with Paul Krugman on the subject of US relations with China https://lnkd.in/gc_ckY2P, he writes that "It will not be to our advantage, or the world’s, to have a Cold War with China similar to the one we had with the Soviet Union." I would add that it should not be a surprise that the relationship between the US and China is so contentious. For one, Biden, like his predecessors, has filled the ranks with many Sinophobes. These individuals, from the Secretary of the Treasury to the United States Secretary of State, have little to offer in terms of a mutually beneficial relationship. Instead, they stoke fires, adopt policies that are counterproductive for the US economy, and negatively affect US foreign policy broadly, from Asia to Africa to Europe. On the Cold War legacy, he writes "Even if we go back to the Cold War with the Soviet Union, our foreign policy often looked to areas for possible cooperation. First and foremost, we had a number of arms control agreements designed to limit spending and the risks of accidental war. But we also looked to cooperate in other areas, most visibly space travel." https://lnkd.in/gwnPqTYV

"**Contest for the Indo-Pacific: Why China Won’t Map the Future**" by Rory Medcalf is an insightful analysis of the geopolitical significance of the Indo-Pacific region, focusing on how various powers, including China, are vying for influence. Medcalf, a seasoned strategist and expert in international relations, challenges the narrative that China will inevitably dominate the region. Instead, he argues that the Indo-Pacific is too vast and complex for any single power, including China, to control or dictate the future. In the book, Medcalf outlines the growing importance of the Indo-Pacific as a strategic and economic hub, with countries like India, Japan, Australia, the US, and Southeast Asian nations playing crucial roles in shaping the region's future. He highlights the concept of the "Indo-Pacific" as a strategic framework that links the Indian and Pacific Oceans, emphasizing cooperation and balance between regional powers to counter China's ambitions. Medcalf also explores: - The rise of China and its assertive policies in the South China Sea and broader region. - The role of the US and its allies in balancing Chinese influence. - The strategic importance of smaller nations in the Indo-Pacific. - The idea that no single power, not even China, can unilaterally shape the region’s destiny due to the diversity and resilience of other regional actors. The book underscores the significance of multilateral partnerships and alliances, suggesting that China’s efforts to dominate the Indo-Pacific will be met with resistance and counterbalancing strategies. Medcalf believes that while China's influence is undeniable, the region’s future will be shaped by a broader coalition of nations with shared interests in maintaining stability, freedom of navigation, and sovereignty. "Contest for the Indo-Pacific" offers a comprehensive, balanced perspective on the ongoing geopolitical struggle in this critical region and highlights the challenges China faces in trying to assert dominance. It's a must-read for those interested in international relations, security studies, and the future of Asia-Pacific dynamics.

In "Cold War With China Is Not in Our Best Interest," economist Dean Baker argues that we should actively pursue policies in the national interest, not intentionally inflame tensions at the expense of international cooperation. Taking some issues with Paul Krugman on the subject of US relations with China https://lnkd.in/gc_ckY2P, he writes that "It will not be to our advantage, or the world’s, to have a Cold War with China similar to the one we had with the Soviet Union." I would add that it should not be a surprise that the relationship between the US and China is so contentious. For one, Biden, like his predecessors, has filled the ranks with many Sinophobes. These individuals, from the Secretary of the Treasury to the United States Secretary of State, have little to offer in terms of a mutually beneficial relationship. Instead, they stoke fires, adopt policies that are counterproductive for the US economy, and negatively affect US foreign policy broadly, from Asia to Africa to Europe. On the Cold War legacy, he writes "Even if we go back to the Cold War with the Soviet Union, our foreign policy often looked to areas for possible cooperation. First and foremost, we had a number of arms control agreements designed to limit spending and the risks of accidental war. But we also looked to cooperate in other areas, most visibly space travel." https://lnkd.in/gwnPqTYV

Economic woes and political centralization have characterized recent news out of China. But S. Goldstein argues, in a recent piece for the site, that China can still turn things around by navigating economic trouble, realizing its Global Security Initiative, and proving its governance model is superior to that of democracies. The argument is important for understanding the future of Sino-Russian relations and the complex—and evolving—nature of that bilateral relationship. Read the article on the website: https://lnkd.in/eAdUYQRD #china #chinaeconomy #russia #usa #centralasia #taiwan #development #politics #geopolitics

The latest edition of the New Zealand International Review is out! NZIIA’s flagship publication includes a lead article on navigating geopolitical competition in the Pacific by Dr Iati Iati, Senior Lecturer, Te Herenga Waka - Victoria University of Wellington. Some highlights from the article: 🔍 Geopolitical competition between the West and China is creating insecurity and development problems for the Pacific region. 🚨 Western countries are responding to China’s growing economic and political footprint with increased militarisation. 🤝 Emerging actors in the Pacific are adopting policies that entangle them in geopolitical competition between Western allies, on the one hand, and China, on the other. South Korea is one example. 💡 The Western allies, in particular the United States, Australia, New Zealand and the United Kingdom, have dominated international relations or geopolitics in the Pacific for over a century. 🚩 Over the past two decades the People’s Republic of China has emerged as a challenge to Western hegemony in the Pacific. ⏳ Pacific Islands countries’ relations with the Western allies remain strong, however the tide is turning, if slowly. The Solomon Islands–China deal was established despite strong objections from Australia, the United States and New Zealand. ⚖ Geopolitical competition has, does and will hurt the Pacific Islands countries’ prospects for peace, stability and economic development. These countries have said that they want to work with all partners. Read the article here: https://lnkd.in/ghAU8R6G Receive future editions of New Zealand International Review by becoming a NZIIA member: https://lnkd.in/gc9y_cqy #NZIIA #InternationalReview

Is America Really Losing Southeast Asia to China? A Critical Look at the Narrative In a recent Foreign Affairs Magazine bit written by Lynn Kuok, PhD (of University of Cambridge) made the argument that the U.S. is losing influence in Southeast Asia to China is compelling yet overly simplistic. Here’s why we need a more balanced view: 1. Misleading Use of Data: The article cites polling data showing China as the preferred partner for Southeast Asia, but this reflects public opinion, not government policy. Many countries continue to hedge between the U.S. and China for strategic autonomy. 2. Economic Ties ≠ Strategic Alignment: While China’s economic influence is undeniable, it doesn’t equate to military or political alignment. Nations like Vietnam and the Philippines maintain robust security ties with the U.S., countering China’s assertiveness. 3. Underestimating U.S. Successes: The U.S. has strengthened military partnerships and economic initiatives in the region, like AUKUS and the Quad, which bolster regional security and counterbalance China’s influence. 4. Flawed Narrative of Convergence: Highlighting China’s gains ignores Southeast Asia’s complex diplomatic landscape, where countries leverage both U.S. and Chinese engagements for maximum benefit. Rating: 6.5/10. The article provides important insights but tends towards sensationalism, highlighting dramatic shifts without a comprehensive examination of ongoing U.S. influence and strategic nuances. Bottom Line: Southeast Asia’s geopolitics are not a zero-sum game. The U.S. still wields considerable influence through its alliances, military presence, and soft power. Rather than focusing on what’s lost, we should recognize the region’s multifaceted approach to balancing the world’s superpowers. #Geopolitics #USChinaRelations #SoutheastAsia #ForeignPolicy #StrategicAnalysis

Washington’s current attempt to contain China is ill-suited for today's environment. What the US needs is a systemic approach – a full-throated defense of #freetrade to mobilize its private sector and allies, Nate Picarsic and Emily de la Bruyère write: https://buff.ly/4enEbV8 Also related: Faced with containment, China is pursuing a set of economic engagement strategies that resemble guerrilla tactics to strengthen its global position. Whether Beijing succeeds will shape the future of #globalization, says Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) gGmbH: https://buff.ly/47TSlLd

The article by Hal Brands discusses the current global turmoil, drawing parallels to the upheavals of the 1960s. It highlights a world beset by crises from Ukraine to the South China Sea, where international cooperation is stymied by diplomatic rivalry, and techno-optimism has morphed into techno-anxiety. The stability of the post-Cold War era, characterized by the triumph of democracy, globalization, and American power, is unraveling, giving way to a fragmented global order with geopolitical blocs, ideological battles, and intensified technological competition. The post-Cold War era, once seen as a golden age of democracy and globalization, has proven fragile. The rise of autocratic powers like Russia and China, alongside the inadequacies of American policy, has led to a resurgence of geopolitical competition. The US, once dominant, now faces significant challenges as Russia invades neighbors and China asserts control in the South China Sea. The decline in American hegemony has emboldened adversaries, leading to increased military, economic, and ideological confrontations. As the world shifts towards this new era of fragmentation, the implications are profound. Global problem-solving is hampered by geopolitical tensions, while the risk of major conflicts looms large. The US, despite its enduring power, is plagued by political instability, affecting its ability to lead. Policymakers and business leaders must adapt to a reality of persistent competition and conflict, preparing for worst-case scenarios and leveraging adversity to foster innovation and resilience. The article underscores the need for strategic foresight in navigating this tumultuous global landscape. Find more details in the excellent Bloomberg article: https://flip.it/L4DOj8