Enrico Cau, PhD’s Post

India versus Pakistan: A Comparative Analysis of Naval Power and Strategic Maritime Influence India and Pakistan, longstanding adversaries in South Asia, have historically clashed both on land and at sea. While much attention. More Info. https://lnkd.in/d5XJCyxF #geopolitics #TheAsiaHawk

U.S. to CHINA: NOT SO FAST! While China is rapidly expanding its naval fleet, with some projections suggesting it could soon surpass the United States in terms of sheer numbers of ships, it's important to note that quantity does not necessarily equate to quality. The United States Navy has a long history of global deployments and power projection, with centuries of experience operating in distant waters and complex multinational coalitions. This experience is invaluable in mastering the intricacies of modern naval warfare, from logistics and maintenance over extended distances, to command and control of diverse assets, to the diplomatic and legal aspects of port visits and freedom of navigation operations. In contrast, China's navy, until recently, has primarily been a coastal defense force. While China has made strides in acquiring blue-water capabilities and conducting longer-range exercises, it still lacks the depth of experience the US Navy takes for granted. This inexperience could become a detriment as China's navy expands and takes on increasingly complex missions. Some Chinese writers and analysts, in their enthusiasm for the People's Liberation Army Navy's (PLAN's) growth, seem to downplay or outright ignore this experience gap. They point to the PLAN's new hardware, from aircraft carriers to advanced submarines and surface combatants, and assume that with sufficient technology and numbers, China can quickly become a superior naval power. However, they overlook the intangible factors that make a truly effective navy. These include crew proficiency through prolonged at-sea periods, the ability to integrate multiple units into a cohesive task force, and the logistical prowess to sustain those forces far from home ports. Moreover, the US Navy's experience is not just in peacetime operations, but also in actual combat across numerous conflicts. It has a battle-hardened edge that China, lacking significant combat experience, cannot match for the foreseeable future. This should not be underestimated when assessing the balance of naval power in the Indo-Pacific. In conclusion, while China's naval expansion is a significant development with major implications, analysts must be cautious not to simply count ships and assume a one-for-one replacement of US naval primacy. The US Navy's experience, both in routine global operations and in combat, provides a qualitative edge that will be difficult for China to fully counter in the near to medium term, even as Beijing continues to acquire advanced ships and planes.

Interesting essay for the unintended irony: "In contrast, if the PLAN was able to deploy super-quiet SSNs on par with the best U.S. and Russian boats, that would represent a major strategic change—not only for its ability to defend on the open ocean but also in terms of China’s capacity to threaten U.S. naval forces well outside the first island chain. Such a capability would give China transoceanic reach with single platforms, absent the extensive logistical support or need for the overseas bases a carrier strike group requires." Oh yeah... Russia is now aware that NATO would like to destroy it. #AUKUS has given China an excellent reason to advance Anti-Submarine Warfare and submarine quieting. There is a country called Russia, to the north, that is reasonably competent. Meanwhile, the USA, and its allies, have decided that it is a really smart idea to tool up and down the South China Sea 24x7 to give the Chinese every possible opportunity to build their signature database. What we have, at this time, is the very dumbest imperial project in history. Presume that China actually wants to rule the waves, and then go give them the perfect motivation to do exactly that, plus 24x7 daily instruction on whether they can make a contact and hold it for targeting purposes. The West deserves to lose these conflicts. We are phenomenally stupid.

The Russian deployment in the Caribbean of two warships and two auxiliaries is causing quite a stir, but I would like to sit back and make three points. First, about naval power. The single namesake Admiral Gorshkov class frigate and the Kazan Yasen class submarine probably represent about all the ships of their respective classes that Russia can send far from its shores, considering normal demands of training and maintenance that apply to all navies and distant deployments. The USA has four fleets that it keeps up to strength far from its shores. A different ballgame altogether! Second, about allies and bases. These two warships are accompanied by an oiler and a salvage tug. They have to, for they cannot refuel in friendly bases en route and if anything happens, there are no friendly ships to come to the rescue. Compare that to the Dutch Zr. Ms. Tromp that can sail around the world on her own in the heart warming knowledge that friendly bases and support are available everywhere on her route. Third, about surface ships and submarines. The Gorshkov is a quite capable ship, but just like all surface ships it would be hideously vulnerable to air power in case of a crisis. If not exactly a sitting duck, its long time survival chances outside the range of air cover would be close to zero - and in the Russian case that is anywhere beyond the Russian home waters. The Kazan is a different story. A submarine is far better able to hide and while NATO will do its best to track it, success is not assured. Even if Russia has not got sufficient submarines to attempt a fourth Battle of the Atlantic today, just one SSN operating as a raider could wreak serious damage and cause massive disruption: ASW is back and is here to stay. So keep calm and carry on. With urgency please. For if our foes steal another march on us, we could get in far choppier waters. #onderzeeboten #submarines #Tromp

Today, the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) has begun a month-long series of protective military activities which sees multiple Maritime and Air units contributing to the security of Critical Undersea Infrastructure across Northern Europe. This JEF Response Option activity, called NORDIC WARDEN, follows the similar deployment by the JEF in December 2023 – the first of its kind, following a JEF Leaders’ announcement in October. Ships, aircraft, and personnel from JEF Participant Nations will operate in numerous areas from Norway’s western approaches through to the Baltic Sea, with activity coordinated by the JEF from Northwood Headquarters, UK. Critical Undersea Infrastructure is essential for economic activity between the highly interconnected nations across northern Europe and any disruption to it, whether malign or accidental, would have a major effect on the daily lives of their populations. NORDIC WARDEN activities bring together capabilities from all ten JEF nations to monitor shipping activity near important undersea energy and communications routes, and to coordinate the detection and interdiction of any unusual or suspicious activity in their vicinity. NORDIC WARDEN builds on the JEF’s capability to cohere multiple activity streams between a number of nations simultaneously across both time and space. This activity demonstrates how the JEF framework can combine the strengths of each nation to provide a unified capability exemplifying JEF’s role as a key contributor to regional security, and more importantly emphasises how the JEF works alongside NATO as the region’s ultimate security guarantor.

The report highlights that the current naval posture, designed over a decade ago, is no longer adequate. Freer and Salisbury argue that what required only a single ship in 2010 or 2015 will necessitate several by the 2030s and 2040s. The UK, they contend, does not currently possess the necessary fleet size or capabilities to meet future demands. The report calls for a strategic shift in the UK’s naval policy, recommending that the Royal Navy should lead efforts to achieve sea control in the Euro-Atlantic to secure vital maritime areas and support NATO. Concurrently, it should contribute to sea denial efforts in the Indo-Pacific, in collaboration with allies, to deter the PRC’s aggressive actions. https://lnkd.in/efeRyFdm

Recent analysis from Planet's satellite imagery has played a pivotal role in monitoring the prolonged docking of Chinese warships at Cambodia's Ream Naval Base. These insights have provided invaluable transparency in assessing the strategic implications of this military presence. 🔹 Key Highlights: Monitoring Activity: Planet's imagery confirmed the presence of the ships for over five months, despite official statements of a temporary stay. Strategic Transparency: By capturing real-time data, satellite imagery helps verify ground realities, ensuring accurate and timely information for global security stakeholders. Global Impact: This capability underscores the importance of satellite technology in enhancing situational awareness and supporting international diplomatic and security efforts. As geopolitics evolves, the role of satellite imagery in providing clear, unbiased data is more crucial than ever. 🌍🛰️ #SatelliteImagery #Geopolitics #Defense #PlanetLabs #Transparency #NationalSecurity #Cambodia #China

https://lnkd.in/eZv8eUwa Good article on lack of amphibious shipping and maintaining a 3.0 MEU Presence. For over twenty years, Marines have adapted and used MPF/MSC Shipping as Lilypads and gave rise to the Joint High Speed Vessel through an experiment by III MEF and Austal called the WESTPAC Express. This experimentation on nontraditional shipping often ensured there was an American presence during crises. A 3.0 MEU Presence gives COCOMS and Fleet Commanders flexibility during crises. The US is looking at Japan and ROK for Fleet Maintenance. If US Shipyards cannot keep up, we should be looking at some of the excellent ROK Naval platforms. as their big deck amphibious ship or Japan's. Congress would not like this but they should understand readiness is at stake.

🇨🇳 What Are #Chinese Vessels Doing in the Bering Sea? On July 11th, the United States Coast Guard (USCG) stated that four People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) vessels were in the Bering Sea on July 6th and July 7th. The incident is the fourth time that USCG vessels have encountered PLAN ships in the area since August 2021. The PLAN vessels were involved in the fourth Freedom of Navigation Operation (FONOP), which China is using as tit-for-tat measures against the FONOPs the US Navy conducts in the Taiwan Strait and the East and South China Seas. The July 2024 mission is an evolution of the three previous missions because it showed that the PLAN can conduct similar FONOPs as the United States. The PLAN ordered the vessels to conduct the FONOP as a response to the NATO Summit held in Washington, D.C.. Read more, here: https://lnkd.in/gX6AMKFB

"Regrettably, we are no longer a true maritime nation; we are now a naval nation." The time to start re-investing our American Maritime Infrastructure was a decade ago. We must catch up now by rapidly rebuilding the maritime transportation sector, the cornerstone of America's ability to project power across the globe. Our might is nothing without Seapower and at its core is the US MTS, which has been left in the cold since the end of Cold War 1. https://lnkd.in/geY6CNXy