FGS Global’s Post

Is America Really Losing Southeast Asia to China? A Critical Look at the Narrative In a recent Foreign Affairs Magazine bit written by Lynn Kuok, PhD (of University of Cambridge) made the argument that the U.S. is losing influence in Southeast Asia to China is compelling yet overly simplistic. Here’s why we need a more balanced view: 1. Misleading Use of Data: The article cites polling data showing China as the preferred partner for Southeast Asia, but this reflects public opinion, not government policy. Many countries continue to hedge between the U.S. and China for strategic autonomy. 2. Economic Ties ≠ Strategic Alignment: While China’s economic influence is undeniable, it doesn’t equate to military or political alignment. Nations like Vietnam and the Philippines maintain robust security ties with the U.S., countering China’s assertiveness. 3. Underestimating U.S. Successes: The U.S. has strengthened military partnerships and economic initiatives in the region, like AUKUS and the Quad, which bolster regional security and counterbalance China’s influence. 4. Flawed Narrative of Convergence: Highlighting China’s gains ignores Southeast Asia’s complex diplomatic landscape, where countries leverage both U.S. and Chinese engagements for maximum benefit. Rating: 6.5/10. The article provides important insights but tends towards sensationalism, highlighting dramatic shifts without a comprehensive examination of ongoing U.S. influence and strategic nuances. Bottom Line: Southeast Asia’s geopolitics are not a zero-sum game. The U.S. still wields considerable influence through its alliances, military presence, and soft power. Rather than focusing on what’s lost, we should recognize the region’s multifaceted approach to balancing the world’s superpowers. #Geopolitics #USChinaRelations #SoutheastAsia #ForeignPolicy #StrategicAnalysis

Rare, high-stakes talks between U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping Wednesday come against the backdrop of a more fractured world, in which geopolitical relations no longer fall into a traditional West versus the rest model, a new survey of 21 countries has found. International relations have become increasingly “a la carte,” with countries more likely to “mix and match” their geopolitical alliances on individual matters rather than to fully commit to one side, the study by the European Council on Foreign Relations thinktank and the University of Oxford found. Pluralities of global citizens believe the West is in demise — with U.S. democracy and the European Union at risk of collapse within the next 20 years. They also find that increased economic ties with China are growing more appealing, according to polling of adults across 11 European countries and 10 non-European ones. #US #China #Russia #Ukraine #geopolitics #internationalrelations #conflict #business

Good article from Elliot S. Ji, PhD Candidate at Princeton. Short read worth considering. Couple points: "The strategic community’s attention to the role of India and the Indian Ocean may point to the regime’s renewed efforts to strengthen its geopolitical position and reduce China’s vulnerabilities, such as energy dependence and insufficient force projection over maritime chokepoints." "This essay’s assessment of the Chinese strategic community reveals a sobering thought on understanding strategic thinking in China. By mapping how Chinese strategic thinkers perceive and assess the emergence and construction of the Indo-Pacific, we know that the Chinese view of this concept, while uniformly focusing on geostrategic containment and encirclement, indicates a level of confidence that China can leverage the disparate strategic interests and the economic dependence on China among key U.S. partners to counter the attempts to deny its rise." "The absence of self-reflection likely results from President Xi Jinping’s relentless push of the CCP’s narrative of victimhood and the increasingly pervasive influence of nationalism." "As such, when China’s behavior persists in appearing more coercive than cooperative, it may drive countries closer to the United States, encouraging them to reduce or eliminate any economic interdependence with China. Paradoxically, the perception of containment and the ensuing aggressive actions that are only perceived as “defensive” by Chinese elites could further convince regional countries to engage in security integration with the United States."

In response to a rapidly evolving geopolitical landscape, #SouthKorea’s self-designation as a “global pivotal state” suggests that the country has reached a turning point in its foreign policy. As South Korea assumes a more prominent role on the global stage, what opportunities are there for alignment with #Canada’s strategic interests, especially in the #IndoPacific region? Our Research Scholar Tae Yeon Eom analyzes the implications of this shift and avenues for Canada-South Korea co-operation in our latest explainer.

"Foreign Policy Analysis: US-China Relations" Foreign policy analysis of US-China relations reveals a complex and multifaceted dynamic, crucial to understanding contemporary international relations. This relationship, arguably the most consequential bilateral engagement of the 21st century, oscillates between cooperation and competition, deeply influencing global politics, economics, and security. The US and China, as the world's two largest economies, are interdependent yet competitive, particularly in trade and technology. The trade war initiated under the Trump administration, characterized by tariffs and counter-tariffs, highlighted the competitive aspect. The Biden administration continues to navigate this complex trade relationship, balancing economic interests with strategic competition. Technological rivalry, particularly in areas like 5G, artificial intelligence, and cybersecurity, represents another dimension of this relationship. Concerns over national security, intellectual property, and technological dominance fuel tensions, as both nations seek to establish their supremacy in the tech arena. Militarily, the US-China relationship is marked by strategic mistrust and regional tension, especially in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait. The US's commitment to freedom of navigation operations challenges China's territorial claims, contributing to regional security dilemmas. Additionally, human rights issues, particularly China's policies in Xinjiang and Hong Kong, have become a point of contention, with the US criticizing China's actions and Beijing defending them as internal matters. In global governance, the two powers have areas of both cooperation and competition. Climate change and North Korea's nuclear program are fields where collaborative efforts are essential. However, competition is evident in institutions like the United Nations, where the US and China often have divergent positions. #InternationalRelations #CrisisCommunication #GlobalPolitics #ConflictResolution #Diplomacy #Geopolitics #ForeignPolicy #GlobalAffairs #Peacebuilding #PoliticalScience #InternationalSecurity #GlobalDiplomacy #CrisisManagement #PublicDiplomacy #StrategicCommunication #InternationalLaw #PoliticalAnalysis #SouthAsianStudies #TerrorismStudies #MediaAndPolitics

🌐 Exploring the Impact of Political Instability in the Middle East on the Indo-China Economy 🌍 Greetings, global thinkers! 🌟 Our latest article delves into the intricate web of political instability in the Middle East and its far-reaching consequences on the Indo-China economy. 🌏💼 In a world where geopolitical shifts shape economic landscapes, understanding the nuanced interplay between the Middle East's political dynamics and the Indo-China economic corridor becomes paramount. 🤝🌐 🔍 Key Highlights: Analyzing the Ripple Effects 🌊 Economic Diplomacy Amidst Turmoil 💰🤝 Regional Cooperation or Discord? 🤔🌍 Embark on a journey with us as we decode the potential challenges and opportunities arising from this complex intersection of politics and economics. 💡📊 📰 Read the full article here: https://lnkd.in/gB7DJqyp 🚀 Share Your Thoughts: What are your insights on the evolving global economic landscape? Join the conversation! 💬🌐 #MiddleEast #IndoChinaEconomy #Geopolitics #EconomicAnalysis #ThinkTankInsights 🔗 Connect with us on Social Media:

China’s Alternative Order And What America Should Learn From It By Elizabeth Economy May/June 2024 Published on April 23, 2024 By now, Chinese President Xi Jinping’s ambition to remake the world is undeniable. He wants to dissolve Washington’s network of alliances and purge what he dismisses as “Western” values from international bodies. He wants to knock the U.S. dollar off its pedestal and eliminate Washington’s chokehold over critical technology. In his new multipolar order, global institutions and norms will be underpinned by Chinese notions of common security and economic development, Chinese values of state-determined political rights, and Chinese technology. China will no longer have to fight for leadership. Its centrality will be guaranteed.

In January, South Africa made waves when it brought a case before the ICJ alleging that Israel is committing genocide in Gaza. U.S. officials dismissed the case as meritless, but Pretoria’s defiance of the United States was emblematic of a deeper evolution in the structure of world politics that Washington cannot afford to ignore. Across the globe, a diverse group of nations that view world politics differently from the United States are rising and increasingly active. These emerging powers are neither allies nor adversaries of America but stand to play a much larger role on the world stage in the future. Ten emerging powers—Argentina, Brazil, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Thailand, and Türkiye—have a collective geopolitical weight and diplomatic aspirations make them bound to play an important role in mid-21st century international affairs. As competition between the United States, China, and Russia intensifies, they are flexing their diplomatic muscle in ways that complicate American statecraft. But they also offer unrecognized opportunities to build a durable world order that benefits the United States. Read our full report here: https://lnkd.in/egtDm69J

During a period of increased global unrest and a significant rise in conflicts over the past three decades, a critical question weighs heavily on the intricate geopolitical scene: Would China risk an invasion of Taiwan? Join the World Affairs Council for a discussion on what could prompt such a decision from Xi Jinping and the ripple effects an invasion would have on the global stage – from regional stability to global economic markets to the balance of power between China and the United States. More details and registration here: https://lnkd.in/gs8Bp64T UW Global Business Center

Rare, high-stakes talks between U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping Wednesday come against the backdrop of a more fractured world, in which geopolitical relations no longer fall into a traditional West versus the rest model, a new survey of 21 countries has found. International relations have become increasingly “a la carte,” with countries more likely to “mix and match” their geopolitical alliances on individual matters rather than to fully commit to one side, the study by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) thinktank and Oxford University found. Pluralities of global citizens believe the West is in demise — with U.S. democracy and the European Union at risk of collapse within the next 20 years. They also find that increased economic ties with China are growing more appealing, according to polling of adults across 11 European countries and 10 non-European ones. “Rather than clinging to the eirenic world of yesterday,” leaders need to “understand the new rules of an ‘a la carte game,’ with respect to international relations and seek new partners across crucial issues facing our war-torn world,” co-author and director of the ECFR, Mark Leonard, said of the findings. Russia-Ukraine war ‘existential’ for Western allies The outcome of the war in Ukraine was considered a “determining, and even existential,” factor in the future of the West, according to the survey, with the majority of respondents outside of Europe and the U.S. seeing Western nations as a bigger obstacle to peace than Russia, and more still viewing Moscow as the ultimate victor. Almost three quarters of non-European respondents who believed the EU could “fall apart” also expected Russia to win the war, while around one third of those in the U.S. and in Europe shared the view. For many, the conflict is considered a “proxy war” between the U.S. and Russia, with majorities in Russia, China, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey saying the two Cold War powers are “already at war.” It comes as overall optimism in the outlook of the U.S. wanes. Almost half of respondents in the country say they feel pessimistic about the future of the U.S. This compares with majorities of nationals in India, Indonesia, China and Russia, who are optimistic about their countries. China’s economic appeal on the rise China, meanwhile, is experiencing increased international appeal, with pluralities of citizens — particularly those in middle and emerging powers — saying they are sanguine on the prospect of closer economic ties with China. That is despite the country’s slowing growth prospects. Majorities in Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and Indonesia, along with 50% of people in Turkey, said they feel closer to Beijing than to Washington on trade. Many among them expressed acceptance for various types of Chinese economic presence…. Read more: https://lnkd.in/eT4fW8Pt