“Nearly all the US’ friends in Asia have China as their number one trading partner. Whether or not China ever becomes number one in the world by GDP (it is already there on a PPP basis), Asian governments are clear that China is already too important and too enmeshed in the global economy to be sidelined… …Even the closest U.S. ally is never going to cut itself off from China politically or economically. Few if any Western companies are ever going to entirely forswear investing in the Chinese market even if they will be more cautious about transferring technology there. These words likely resonate with New Zealand exporters concerned about the current escalation of tensions… …This might be a good time to consider which side of this debate we want to be on - the “I win you lose” approach advocated by Pottinger and Gallagher, or the more realist view of Singapore, where both powers acknowledge they are both going to be around for a long time, and need to find a way to share the globe with each other – without one side or the other necessarily “winning”. https://lnkd.in/gbRu7mbb
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The development meant by one side here (Q1) and the economic growth mentioned by the other side there (Q2) are two dissimilar notions and have different ultimate goals. To be meditated. Q1: "'The world is big enough to accommodate the simultaneous development and prosperity of both China and the United States,' he said, according to a Chinese Foreign Ministry readout, adding that U.S.-China relations will stabilize once the U.S. takes 'a positive and constructive view of China’s development.'" Q2: "'Speaking to reporters after the meeting, Blinken said...'We want China’s economy to grow,' he said, but 'the way China grows matters.'" https://lnkd.in/g87EvtuA
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It's now so blatant that US China rivalry is really inability to compete, nations everywhere are distancing themselves. As to geopolitics, they are both as bad as each other. And once a criminal becomes US president, that's what they'd call a whole new ballgame. As China ties deepen, Malaysia’s Anwar says geopolitics is no zero-sum game "Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has made it clear he will not get caught up in China-US geopolitical tensions and be pressured into picking a side, playing down territorial disputes in the South China Sea and the risk of sanctions as he looks to fast track his country’s transition to a hi-tech economy through stronger economic and strategic ties with Beijing. In an exclusive interview with the Post, Anwar was defiant about putting Malaysia’s interests first and carrying on doing business with China, but stressed that he neither had any intention of antagonising the United States nor being swayed by the unilateral action of one country against another. “If they have compelling evidence to suggest that any company or any country is causing mischief, then all right. They should adduce evidence,” he said. “But otherwise, we will not succumb to that sort of pressure. It is no longer neocolonialism or colonial rule. We are an independent nation.”" https://lnkd.in/gmWw3Yx9 #malaysia #china #us #asean
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President Xi Jinping's recent trip to Europe underscores China's strategic shift in foreign policy. 🌍 Visits to nations like Serbia and Hungary highlight China's focus on building economic ties with countries aligning with Beijing amid global tensions. The emphasis on FDI in critical sectors signals China's aim to diversify investment strategies and deepen economic partnerships. 🤝🇨🇳 #ChinaEuropeRelations #EconomicDiplomacy https://lnkd.in/edH_ZqmY
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Why #NewZealand needs to prepare now for a future in 'a world without #China' 👁️RNZ.co.nz Analyst, author and geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan (formerly at Stratfor) on New Zealand’s ‘fraught’ relationship with China. https://lnkd.in/d4rnR_VJ 🦉China is New Zealand’s most important trading partner right now. Certainly Japan is a more compatible trading partner. I have been saying since #XinJingping came to power in 2017 that #NZ must diversify. At the time on LinkedIn many business people were skeptical of my views and were still drunk on feeding in the bottomless Chinese money trough. Much has happened since then: the pandemic, China’s aggressive behaviour in the South China Sea, its territorial disputes with its neighbours (including Japan), the downsides of the Belt and Road Initiative becoming apparent, the crackdown on Hong Kong democracy, the genocidal treatment of the Uighur people, its influence operations here in NZ surfacing, its offensive sorties towards Taiwan, and its assistance to Russia during its war in Ukraine. New Zealanders are now getting a clearer picture and understanding of the threat China poses. China has recently launched a charm offensive (laced with threatening hints) ever since two successive NZ governments announced they were examining whether joining Pillar Two of the AUKUS treaty was in NZ’s strategic interests. Visits from premier Li Qiang and foreign minister Wang Yi were aimed at placing pressure on NZ and reminding it on which side its bread is buttered. Getting out from underneath needs to be an urgent strategic priority. 👁️Newshub: Kiwi journalists 'shoved', 'grabbed' by New Zealand officials for trying to ask China Premier Li Qiang questions https://lnkd.in/dR7zU3Xg #newzealand #china #PRC #CCP #unitedstates #japan #trade #security
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Great minds think alike - China Following the election of Donald Trump as US president and the anticipated trade tensions that ensued, both the UAE and Singapore have made conscious efforts to reaffirm their longstanding relationships with China, marking 40 and 35 years of diplomatic ties, respectively. The UAE-China Friendship Festival provided a vibrant display of cultural performances, culinary delights, and the spirit of friendship. UAE Ambassador Hussain bin Ibrahim Al Hammadi highlighted the unwavering commitment to shared growth, progress, and sustainable development. The UAE, as China's largest trading partner in the Arab world, showcases how meaningful partnerships transcend beyond economic interests into cultural and strategic dimensions. Singapore, too, has reinforced its strong partnership with China. The two nations share a thriving economic bond that has only grown stronger over the years. China has been Singapore's largest trading partner for 11 consecutive years since 2013. Furthermore, China is Singapore's largest export market and biggest source of imports, making their connection vital for both economies. Singapore ranks as China's fifth-largest trading partner among ASEAN countries, with bilateral trade exceeding US$100 billion in 2023. Singapore has also been the largest source of new investments in China for 11 years running, reflecting a deep level of trust and collaboration. During his visit to Beijing, Singapore's SM Lee Hsien Loong met with President Xi Jinping, reiterating the importance of aligning development strategies and working closely to secure regional peace and prosperity. With the upcoming 35th anniversary of China-Singapore diplomatic relations, the commitment to deeper, more impactful cooperation is stronger than ever. As we navigate a shifting global landscape, it will be fascinating to see how these resilient partnerships evolve in the face of new challenges, as the world might become more divided and less cooperative.
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Preview this week's first story from the Red Report… China's diplomatic dance in the Indo-Pacific is stepping on some toes. Australia and New Zealand are reevaluating their trade openness with China, while Malaysia weighs the pros and cons of Chinese business deals against broader geopolitical concerns. As China's allure dims, global businesses must stay alert and be ready to adapt their strategies accordingly. Disappointment in Malaysia over unmet expectations and the US-China balancing act signal a cooling of relations. With countries like Australia and New Zealand already reassessing their economic ties, it's clear that the global business landscape is changing. Companies should keep a close eye on these developments to navigate the evolving economic alliances. #Geopolitics #IndoPacific #ChinaInfluence #GlobalBusiness #InternationalRelations #BusinessStrategy #EconomicDiplomacy To read more visit: https://lnkd.in/dQpdawBZ Subscribe to get our newsletter delivered to your inbox bi-weekly on Mondays: https://lnkd.in/eUpGXmfy
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Excerpt, Michael Smith, the Australia Financial Review (AFR): //Cross-border exchanges, research grants, tourist visits, #capital flows and #investment between China and #Australia are at their lowest levels in over half a decade despite improving diplomatic ties. Data compiled by The Australian Financial Review shows vital metrics in the critical bilateral relationship have failed to return to levels before ties soured under the Turnbull and Morrison governments and, in some cases, are shrinking. More than a year after China scrapped its zero-COVID policies, the country remains more isolated from Australia and the rest of the world as President Xi Jinping warns his citizens to watch out for foreign #spies and ramps up #nationalsecurity crackdowns. At the same time as #nationalism inside the country rises, the United States and its allies are bolstering #defence #alliances to try to deter China’s territorial ambitions over Taiwan and parts of the #southchinasea. They are also ramping up efforts to cut off China’s access to technology and break its dominance of crucial industries, such as critical minerals. Data, which has long been a measure of the strength of Sino-Australian relations, and interviews with key players suggest that although political tensions have eased in recent months, economic engagement between both countries is yet to increase significantly. And it is not expected to return to pre-pandemic levels, despite Beijing withdrawing its economic coercion tactics, including wine tariffs last month. “It’s not going back to 10 years ago when we could do no wrong. It (the market) is not going to be recaptured. Internally, China has changed,” said Warwick Smith, chairman of the #Business Council of Australia’s global engagement committee and a former Liberal minister who visits China regularly. “We are trying to find some new areas for engagement – don’t just think you will go back to the way things were. We might capture back some of our markets from the Argentinians and the French in wine, but we have to think about some new areas.” Chinese investment in Australia has been declining since 2016, a trend expected to continue as the country’s economic growth slows and Xi’s government ramps up efforts to stop capital leaving the country. Chinese visitor numbers to Australia are about half of what they were before the pandemic closed borders. Australian Bureau of Statistics data shows 71,170 short-term visitor arrivals from China in January this year, compared to 142,850 in 2019. Experts say global #geopolitical tensions will dictate the future of Beijing’s relations with Canberra, regardless of the Albanese government’s progress in repairing relations with Beijing, which hit a low point when Scott Morrison called for an inquiry into the origins of COVID-19 in 2020.// #geopolitics #derisking #diversification
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🌏 Why Close Trade Partners China and Japan Struggle to Get Along Despite being two of Asia’s most powerful nations and major trading partners, China and Japan’s relationship remains fraught with tension, rooted in centuries of rivalry and political disputes. As their economic ties evolve, these tensions often resurface, highlighting the complexities of their partnership. 📌 Historical Rivalry: Centuries of shared history include both cultural exchanges and deep political conflicts, notably Japan’s military campaigns in China during the early 20th century. These historical wounds still cast long shadows over diplomatic relations today. 📌 Rising Military Tensions: China’s growing military assertiveness, including claims over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, has prompted Japan to expand its defense spending and align more closely with the US. Frequent military encounters around disputed territories further strain relations. 📌 Evolving Trade Dynamics: Past Partnerships: Japanese firms once thrived in China’s burgeoning market, leveraging its low-cost labor and growing consumer base. Present Challenges: Today, Chinese businesses are outpacing Japanese companies in sectors like electric vehicles and consumer electronics, while new trade restrictions and political risks add further uncertainty. 📌 What’s Next? Despite the friction, both nations remain economically intertwined. Japan continues to supply high-tech products to China, while Chinese tourists and students are reinvigorating Japan’s economy. With political dialogue resuming, there’s cautious optimism for cooperation in areas of mutual interest. 💡 Key Takeaway: The relationship between China and Japan exemplifies the delicate balance of competition and collaboration in global geopolitics. As trade partners and regional rivals, their future depends on finding common ground amidst deep-seated challenges. 💬 What are your thoughts on the evolving dynamics between these two economic giants? Let’s discuss! #ChinaJapanRelations #AsiaGeopolitics #GlobalTrade #EconomicPolicy #TerritorialDisputes #MilitaryTensions #TradePartnerships #HighTech #Tourism #GlobalEconomy #DiplomacyMatters #GeopoliticalInsights
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It's all about choosing your friends wisely in the global playground. Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim calls China a true friend, essentially waving a banner that says, “Embrace, don't fear.” Sure, let's all cozy up to the behemoth with a track record of dominance and a penchant for expanding influence. Nothing to see here, folks, just a fast track to becoming a subordinate player in the region. Business as usual, right? 👀 Scratch the surface, and you’ll see: - China’s rapid economic takeover across Asia. - Smooth-talking diplomacy masking strategic power plays. - Dependence on China translating into political leverage. It's times like these when diplomacy paves the way to vulnerability. Remember what happened with Sri Lanka's Hambantota Port? Locked into an everlasting friendship” through debt traps and strategic takeovers. Malaysia should tread carefully or learn the hard way. 🎯 Prediction time: - Malaysia's increased reliance on China will dilute its bargaining power. - Short-term gains will give way to long-term strategic dependencies. - A true friend today could be a commanding influencer tomorrow. Is this the future Malaysia wants? Let’s hope there’s a Plan B somewhere in the diplomatic arsenal. Watch your back, because in the game of thrones that is global politics, there's always a Stark warning worth heeding. Official alliances are great—until they aren't. Wise strategists will see the iceberg before they hit it. Let’s wait and watch, shall we? https://lnkd.in/emdgfXDV
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Navigating the China Conundrum: Economic and Diplomatic Lines Can't Be Separate. India's attempt to bifurcate its economic and diplomatic dealings with China is akin to walking a tightrope without a safety net. In today's global economy, economic ties are inherently intertwined with diplomatic negotiations. Can India afford to isolate these facets? The complexities of international relations demand a holistic approach. Economic growth and diplomatic leverage must move in tandem to foster sustainable progress. India's cautious stance on Chinese investments highlights a critical need for strategic integration rather than isolation. Balancing growth with security concerns is no small feat, but the solution lies in cohesive, not compartmentalized, strategies. Click and follow me today! Read more on why this separation won't work: https://lnkd.in/eAq6MDZW
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