Jonathan T L.’s Post

President Xi Jinping's recent trip to Europe underscores China's strategic shift in foreign policy. 🌍 Visits to nations like Serbia and Hungary highlight China's focus on building economic ties with countries aligning with Beijing amid global tensions. The emphasis on FDI in critical sectors signals China's aim to diversify investment strategies and deepen economic partnerships. 🤝🇨🇳 #ChinaEuropeRelations #EconomicDiplomacy https://lnkd.in/edH_ZqmY

The development meant by one side here (Q1) and the economic growth mentioned by the other side there (Q2) are two dissimilar notions and have different ultimate goals. To be meditated. Q1: "'The world is big enough to accommodate the simultaneous development and prosperity of both China and the United States,' he said, according to a Chinese Foreign Ministry readout, adding that U.S.-China relations will stabilize once the U.S. takes 'a positive and constructive view of China’s development.'" Q2: "'Speaking to reporters after the meeting, Blinken said...'We want China’s economy to grow,' he said, but 'the way China grows matters.'" https://lnkd.in/g87EvtuA

Joined #cgtn America to discuss Chinese Premier Li Qiang’s visits to #australia and #newzealand. These were very positive visits, a more substantial mini-détente and stabilization of ties than what we’ve seen between Beijing and Washington. We might come to see this an inflection point for improving ties—ties that were derailed in 2018 when the previous Australian government began implementing anti-China policies, followed by Chinese reciprocations, including trade restrictions. Nevertheless, ties have been getting warmer since 2022, when a new government was elected in Australia and took bold steps to improve relations, including initiating high-level visits to #china last year, paving the way for Li’s visit and many hope, a visit by President Xi to the region in the near future. Li stated, “China-Australia relations were back on track after a period of twists and turns.” The joint-statement was short on sentiments but long on facts, highlighting the large number of agreements related to trade, security and cultural exchanges (including a comprehensive strategic partnership, #rcept, #cptpp, #chafta, #dta, etc.). Separately, we’ve heard about new giant panda loans, solving the rock lobster imbroglio, and 15 visa free visits to China. Nevertheless, a recent poll found that 53% of Australians still view China as more of a strategic threat than trading partner, and Canberra must move carefully to avoid alienating voters and likewise Washington, given Australia’s commitments to #aukus and the Five Eyes. As Australia’s foreign minister said, they can’t just hit a rewind button—that Australia will remain in a “permanent contest” with China. On the one hand, trade is improving. China is Australia's largest two-way trading partner, accounting for 27% of Australia’s international goods and services trade in 2023. On the other hand, Chinese investment in Australia fell 57% in 2023, and there’s no easy turnaround. Australia is still imposing curbs on Chinese investments in strategic minerals and technology, supporting the US tech-decoupling/technology blockade. Uncertainty about future ties further erodes investments now. Plus, Chinese investors may have other interests now, including more investment vehicles available to them in China itself, e.g., popular new long-term bonds. New Zealand thus far has avoided the same rockiness but is likewise vulnerable to declines as it considers a potential relationship with AUKUS. Prime Minister Luxon noted however that the longstanding relationship permitted disagreement, saying, “The ability to be able to talk very directly and very upfront about issues that we might disagree on, have differences of opinions around, is actually a very good thing.” He said talks had split “50/50” over discussing common ground vs. differences. Broader context: Who wins the White House this November? Countries in Europe, the Middle East and the South Pacific are anxious and hedging.

“Nearly all the US’ friends in Asia have China as their number one trading partner. Whether or not China ever becomes number one in the world by GDP (it is already there on a PPP basis), Asian governments are clear that China is already too important and too enmeshed in the global economy to be sidelined… …Even the closest U.S. ally is never going to cut itself off from China politically or economically. Few if any Western companies are ever going to entirely forswear investing in the Chinese market even if they will be more cautious about transferring technology there. These words likely resonate with New Zealand exporters concerned about the current escalation of tensions… …This might be a good time to consider which side of this debate we want to be on - the “I win you lose” approach advocated by Pottinger and Gallagher, or the more realist view of Singapore, where both powers acknowledge they are both going to be around for a long time, and need to find a way to share the globe with each other – without one side or the other necessarily “winning”. https://lnkd.in/gbRu7mbb

And once again: It's the economy, stupid. 🇦🇷 🇨🇳 #Argentina's president Javier #Milei, who once declared "no deals with communists," has notably softened his stance towards #China. Initially critical of China's communist regime, he now views it as a vital commercial partner. At the G20 summit in Rio, Milei met with Chinese President Xi Jinping, marking a significant shift. While still prioritizing relations with the US and Israel, Milei has embraced pragmatic diplomacy with China, acknowledging its importance for Argentina’s economy. His government has benefited from China's support, such as the currency swap, highlighting Milei's evolving approach to international relations and economic pragmatism. Milei and Xi Jinping met today on the sidelines of the G20 summit. Milei was accompanied by half of his cabinet on the occasion. According to a statement subsequently released by the Argentine presidential office, "during this meeting, topics of relevance to the bilateral relationship were discussed, including constructive cooperation and the expansion of trade relations between both countries." The statement continued: "China expressed its interest in increasing trade with the Argentine Republic, while Argentina expressed its desire to diversify and increase its export offer to the Chinese market. Both nations agreed to continue working on strengthening their commercial ties and on the development of joint projects that benefit both economies. During the session, current commercial and financial ties and agreements were reaffirmed, as well as the desire to continue exploring new opportunities to expand and improve everything that involves strengthening the bilateral relationship." "President Xi issued a formal invitation to President Milei to visit China and, in return, President Milei extended a formal invitation to President Xi to visit Argentina. These visits will take place within the timeframes and terms to be agreed between both foreign ministries." "Representing Argentina, the meeting was attended by the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo; the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Gerardo Werthein; the Secretary General of the Presidency, Karina Milei; the Minister of Defense, Luis Petri; the Minister of Deregulation and Transformation of the State, Federico Sturzenegger; the presidential spokesman, Manuel Adorni; and the president of the Central Bank, Santiago Bausili, along with other secretaries and government officials."

🇨🇳 The choice of stops on Chinese president Xi Jinping’s tour last week of Europe were no accident... 🚨 Aside from geopolitical reasoning for each visit to France, Serbia and Hungary, the three countries have another thing in common: high levels of recent Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI). 📊 Between 2021 and 2023, China-based companies made $12.1bn of investment pledges in Hungary, according to fDi Intelligence data, more than in any other European country and an increase from $1.05bn during the previous three years. 🥈 Meanwhile, Serbia was the European country with the second highest Chinese FDI at $6.84bn during the last three years, more than double the figure between 2018 and 2020. France also attracted its highest Chinese FDI in 2023 alone since 2016. 👉 https://lnkd.in/ewDy-3kR ⁉ What do observers think about this ⁉ 1️⃣ These investments are broadly reflective of China’s stranglehold on critical supply chains, including electric vehicles (EVs) and the batteries, components and critical minerals that underpin them. Hungary, Serbia and France have all attracted Chinese investment in these sectors. 2️⃣ Abishur Prakash, founder of The Geopolitical Business, Inc, says Xi's trip is an “indicator of how different the world is today” and reveals a shift in China’s strategy in Europe towards smaller economies which are “willing to stand shoulder to shoulder” with Beijing. 3️⃣ Max J. Zenglein, chief economist at Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) gGmbH, says the choice of stops reflects China's intentions to "keep Europe as open as possible" amid concerns in Beijing that the EU will "take a more aggressive stance" similar to the US. ❓ What do you think ❓What does Xi's visit to Europe tell us about China's view and strategy of dealing with Europe ❓ #data #graphtime #fdi #china #europe #hungary #serbia #france #evs #battery

Preview this week's first story from the Red Report… China's diplomatic dance in the Indo-Pacific is stepping on some toes. Australia and New Zealand are reevaluating their trade openness with China, while Malaysia weighs the pros and cons of Chinese business deals against broader geopolitical concerns. As China's allure dims, global businesses must stay alert and be ready to adapt their strategies accordingly. Disappointment in Malaysia over unmet expectations and the US-China balancing act signal a cooling of relations. With countries like Australia and New Zealand already reassessing their economic ties, it's clear that the global business landscape is changing. Companies should keep a close eye on these developments to navigate the evolving economic alliances. #Geopolitics #IndoPacific #ChinaInfluence #GlobalBusiness #InternationalRelations #BusinessStrategy #EconomicDiplomacy To read more visit: https://lnkd.in/dQpdawBZ Subscribe to get our newsletter delivered to your inbox bi-weekly on Mondays: https://lnkd.in/eUpGXmfy

"French President Emmanuel Macron is calling for an update of the country’s economic ties with China, just as the country’s leader Xi Jinping is expected to travel to France for a State visit." Another brilliant demonstration of the decadence of the European and Western "elites" in the broadest sense. History! - In China, 1839 is considered as the beginning of the country's modern history. - In 1842, the British imposed the Treaty of Nanking, which forced China to increase foreign trade, give compensation, and cede Hong Kong Island to the British. - The British flooded China with opium to balance their trade deficit... Opium imports started in 1650 by the Portuguese, and then England took the lead in 1775. - All Western countries tried to colonize China to control trade in what was then known as the "Money Pit." China exported tea and silk (in fact, the West exported to China), but the country didn't buy goods from the West. All the money from the West flowed into China, hence the nickname. - Foreign concessions were concentrated in Shanghai: 1841 for England, 1845 for the USA, 1849 for France... - The Chinese authorities decided to end the ravages of Opium. Although China lost HK and control of the 5 main ports in the first Opium War, and then, several years later, the Boxer Revolution kicked foreigners out of the country. The tens of thousands of Chinese killed by the army of the Alliance of the 7 (the countries with concessions in Shanghai) created the roots of an assertive nationalism that met with communist revolutions in Russia at the beginning of the 20th century. The Second Opium War (1856-60) further weakened the Qing regime... In conclusion : - Occidentals flood China with Opium - Occidentals weakened the political system centered around an emperor, allowing the Cultural Revolution to take hold. - Occidentals killed tens of thousands of Chinese. - Occidentals invaded a part of China... Then - Occidentals fight the communism - Westerners lament the deficit in their trade balances. When some politicians order reciprocity, they should go back to school to learn and increase humility. We are lucky that China never did the same in Occident, even if now, the Fentanyl crisis and current trade asymmetry need to be addressed. This trade deficit has not been a problem for decades, while Occident preferred to delocalize its industrial production to China, preferring to focus on Services... and Now... China is not perfect by far, but the Occidentals are fighting the CCP while they have created the conditions for its accession... Now, the BRICS+6 is becoming more powerful than the G7, and Occident still considers these countries a colony. History has demonstrated that this kind of mistake could cost a lot. Just compare the current situation between the UK vs China.

The ‘New Normal’ of Sino-Indian Economic Relations after Galwan “The Galwan clash marked a turning point in Sino-Indian relations, significantly impacting their economic ties. In the wake of their bloodiest confrontation in decades, India implemented sweeping measures to curtail Chinese economic activity and influence in the country. Meanwhile, Beijing opted for “strategic patience” to avoid further escalating tensions, a step that seems to be paying off as India gradually renews its economic outreach to China,” DANIEL BALAZS and XUE GONG write. “Nonetheless, the two countries are unlikely to see a quick return to their pre-2020 economic relationship, despite a recent breakthrough made on the border issue. The new normal of Sino-Indian economic ties is likely to feature continued, targeted countermeasures from India and a more cautious economic engagement from China.”