Gav Don’s Post

⛪ 📣 This article delves into the Russian Orthodox Church Moscow Patriarchate’s recent ideological pronouncements, the Kremlin’s escalating actions in Ukraine, and its tightening grip on the Russian information space. As the conflict in Ukraine continues, it is crucial to understand the various ways in which the Russian government seeks to shape public opinion and justify its aggressive foreign policy. For investigators and those concerned with potential war crimes, this article provides valuable insights into the ideological framework being constructed by the Russian state to legitimize its actions in Ukraine. The ROC MP’s declaration of the invasion as a “holy war” and its efforts to create a comprehensive nationalist ideology around the conflict may be used to justify and encourage further aggression, potentially leading to more severe human rights abuses and violations of international law. 📰 🔎 Read the complete article from Complex Discovery OÜ's Russo-Ukrainian conflict beat, sourced from the Institute for the Study of War at https://buff.ly/43GBWrt. #WarCrimes #Investigations #Telegram

In this edition of Flash Points, experts weigh in on the nature of peace, who negotiates it, and who should be involved in the process, from Ukraine to the Middle East.

Orban embarked on a peace mission by meeting Putin in Moscow and Xi Jinping in Beijing, and then speaking with Trump, aiming to mediate peace in Europe. European reactions to his initiative have been critical, with concerns about his motives and actions hindering EU values. Orban's confrontational approach and opposition to EU decisions have created rifts within the EU, leading to discussions of potential repercussions for Hungary's actions. Critics believe it is time for a firmer approach towards Hungary to uphold European values and democracy. #AsiaRisk #GeopoliticalConflictandDisputes #China Follow us for daily updates on risk and operations in Asia! https://lnkd.in/guDf7UmG

It is indeed noteworthy that the West's perception of Iran's human rights situation has shifted over time. While the Shah's authoritarian regime was tolerated or even supported by Western powers due to strategic interests, the democratic aspirations of the Iranian people following the revolution were met with skepticism and condemnation. The contradiction in the West's response to human rights violations in Iran reflects the complexities of international relations and the often pragmatic approach taken by governments in pursuit of their interests.During the reign of the Shah of Iran, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, from the 1950s to the late 1970s, the United States supported his regime as a strategic ally in the region, particularly during the Cold War era. Despite widespread human rights abuses and repression under the Shah's rule, including political repression, censorship, and torture, the United States largely supported his regime due to shared geopolitical interests and the perception of Iran as a bulwark against Soviet influence in the region. #debate with a learned friend concerned over Iran

To my Western colleagues in the field of EW and SIGINT. I read from US manufacturers that the experience of the conflict in Ukraine must be taken into serious consideration when developing EW solutions that are adequate to the global strategic situation. Let me share some thoughts on the term "conflict." I believe use of terms is crucial to how effective your EW solutions can be. The term "conflict" implicitly conveys the idea of limitation. It is suitable for diplomacy when it is necessary to limit the intensity of event evaluation and its impact on communication. Meanwhile, the situation in Ukraine is a war of extermination (from the Russian side) and a war for survival (from our Ukrainian side). Accordingly, all technological solutions on both the Russian and Ukrainian sides are determined by the existential intensity of these objectives. Thus, terminology becomes an ontological problem here. By saying "conflict" or "war of extermination", you choose the way to assess the reality in which your EW solutions should operate effectively. The experience of Ukrainian mil tech producers shows that framing the situation in such a way that you unconsciously expect from those who want to destroy you that they are partly guided by limitations, leads to your defeat.

While the war in Ukraine is far from over in Kazakhstan very similar activity is taking place to what happened in Ukraine since 1991. The US is financing local nationalists, journalists, public figures via grants. Promoting same victimhood history, with a lot of focus on the famine in the region, just as Ukraine. Completely ignoring millions of ethnic Russians that were affected in Russia at the same time. Kazakh nationalists record videos for social media where they bully ethnic Russians that don't speak the Kazakh language. Telling them to go back to Russia despite the fact that they were born in Kazakhstan and are citizens of the country. There is also some involvement in the region from Turkey to promote Pan-Turkism. Combined with the efforts of the US to turn the country another anti-Russia region a war in the future is not so far-fetched. Ethnic Kazakh population by percentage on the map. The top part is North Kazakhstan where ethnic Russians still outnumber the Kazakhs despite immigration to Russia since 1991 dissolution of the Soviet Union. The region also still has a large presence of Volga Germans that were deported from Saratov region, however many have also left for Germany. It's right on the border with Russia in Siberia, in case of a war crossing it would take less effort than Ukrainian border as it's very lightly protected by a few border posts. Russia would size all of North Kazakhstan with a population of around 550,000 of which only 200,000 are ethnic Kazakhs. Potentially Karaganda Region in Central Kazakhstan, country's largest region, major center for coal mining with 1,350,000 population. Despite seemingly good relations between Russian and Kazakh leaderships there are no signs of local authorities cracking down on nationalists which could very well lead the country on the same path as Ukraine. Same as with Euromaidan in Ukraine a major event could lead to unpredictable consequences. Just a month before the invasion of Ukraine in January 2022 there was unrest in Kazakhstan, 5 members of Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) headed by Russia dispatched peacekeeping forces to the country.

In my efforts to get briefed as fully as possible on the genesis of some worlds most intractable conflicts, notably Israel, Taiwan, and Ukraine, I came across this considered but uncomfortable historical piece by an Israeli historian in Foreign Affairs which might be useful to those reading widely on all sides of this cockpit of conflict as it might possibly add a few elements to help further appreciate the apparently increasingly deeply irreconcilable perspectives in Israel/Palestinian relations. Once again views and interpretations of history become a key component https://lnkd.in/g-YMQnxV

Simple, clear, and concise 

What to expect after the recently organized Global Peace Summit in Switzerland? Can the second one be more challenging for Ukraine and why? Completely forgotten to share this lively conversation upon invitation from Angela Gramada, where both me and Khrystyna Zelenyuk, foreign policy journalist from Kyiv, were talking about interests of different states involved in attempts to find a solution to ongoing Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and about recent Global Peace Summit in particular. Link is in the first comment

Zelensky meets Trump and said we need just peace. Trump said it has to be "fair" peace. My question is what is meant by "just peace? Or JUST peace? The world, not only Ukraine needs the rule of law and when Trump said is is "a war that should have never happened" it means those who signed the Budapest Memorandum did nothing but had something to gain from Ukraine's ongoing genocide. JUST peace means russia pays, the individuals supporting/propagating russia's Russkiy Mir and genocide are held accountable; just peace - means Ukraine capitulates and russia is free to continue not only destroying Ukraine but the EU and the USA, the Global South and Middle East. Definition of "just" required here: based on or behaving according to what is morally right and fair.