Gene Detroyer’s Post

Premier Li Says China's Economy Grew 5.2% in 2023 Li revealed that China’s gross domestic product grew by 5.22% last year, at the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos. Beating Beijing’s annual projection of around 5 percent GDP growth. Li’s #announcement of the #GDP figure surprised #economists, who had been preparing for the #official release of the data on Wednesday by the National Bureau of Statistics. While recording China's second-slowest expansion since 1976, However, defying expectations of further cooling, the GDP outcome exceeded the government’s target amid a year marred by #domestic lockdowns and external headwinds. While independent #economists have raised doubts about the accuracy of China's GDP statistics, Li defended the data by emphasizing that #China had effectively balanced #COVID controls against sustaining #economic activity. Read more: https://bit.ly/47JLkLj

China's slowdown shows its underlying weaknesses. Consumer confidence and domestic spending is down and the export based growth model is faltering. Wages are static and the young university graduates are unemployed. Construction and real estate which fueled employment of low-qualified labor and attracted savings from the Chinese, are suffering from a slowly exploding balloon. The centralized government, stagnant after 11 years under Xi Jinping as president is now trying to revive the economy with a stimulus package. But the underlying causes will remain untouched. The very nature of the regime is the cause of its woes.

China's economy is set to grow 5% this year, after a "strong" first quarter, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Wednesday, upgrading its earlier forecast of 4.6% expansion though it expects slower growth in the years ahead. The IMF said it had revised up both its 2024 and 2025 GDP targets by 0.4 percentage points but warned that growth in China would slow to 3.3% by 2029 due to an ageing population and slower expansion in productivity. China's economy grew at a faster than expected 5.3% pace year-on-year in the first quarter, comfortably above analysts' forecast for a 4.6% gain in a Reuters poll and up from a 5.2% expansion in the previous quarter. A string of recent economic indicators for April including factory output, trade and consumer prices suggest the $18.6 trillion economy has successfully navigated some near-term downside risks, but China observers say the jury is still out on whether the bounce is sustainable. Domestic consumption remains soft and much of that is linked to fragile confidence amid a protracted property sector crisis that is widely seen as the single biggest stumbling block to a full-blown economic recovery. Source: Reuters News Agency #china #beijing #chineseeconomy #trade #growth #development #gdp

CHINA economical objective analysis by Reuter #China #FiguresandFacts As we are packed with media speeches about a potential China 's decline, I found quite insightful this very factual analysis made by Reuter. 2023's growth rate of GDP was 5,2 % , which for a developed country is quite healthy. It is estimated to be circa 26 billion $, when US is behind with 24 billion dollars. France is 2,5 billions...

The 🚨 are ringing. China needs a makeover - time to collaborate rather than conflict on global platforms ✴️Industrial production slowdown, with growth of only 5.1% in July 2024. ✴️Retail sales increased by just 2.7% y-o-y - indicating economic uncertainty and pervasive gloom. ✴️The unemployment rate rose to 5.2% in July, with 16-24 YO unemployment rate reaching historic levels before authorities suspended the publication of these data. ✴️In July, real estate prices fell in 68 of the country’s 70 major cities, further exacerbated by the near-bankruptcy of several major real estate developers, with astronomical debts. Chinese households are withdrawing from the market ✴️ Rising geopolitical tensions, particularly with the US & the EU increasing their sanctions and trade restrictions, coupled with slowing global demand, are stalling China's engine of growth - exports.

He who laughs last, laughs best. 2023 was a big year for the US economy, even if the Americans were gloomy about 2023 (mostly scarred by inflation in 2022). "It is a striking turn of fortunes,” said Eswar Prasad, who once led the International Monetary Fund’s China team and is now at Cornell University. “The strong performance of the US economy, in tandem with all the short-term and long-term headwinds the Chinese economy is facing, renders it a less obvious proposition that China’s GDP will someday overtake that of the US.” I think it matters little if China's GDP overtakes the US - it matters to the US and China govts. But it is mostly PR. The US and China are far and away the largest 2 economies in the world. There is a gap about the size of the GDPs of Japan, and Germany between US and China. But China's GDP is the size of Japan, Germany, India, France and the UK added together. China's GDP is aboiut 4x that of Japan, the world's 3rd largest economy. Size means something, per capita GDP means something. But all this is just data, what is more important is quality of life, whether that is improving and will improve in the long term.

“In 2023, the Chinese economy rebounded and moved upward with an estimated growth of around 5.2%, higher than the ‘around 5%’ target set at the beginning of last year,” Li said on Tuesday in his first appearance as China’s No. 2 official at the annual World Economic Forum. #china #fdi #world #economy

In the first quarter (Q1) of 2024, the Chinese economy began to pick up pace, demonstrating strength and resilience and adding much-needed predictability to an otherwise uncertain global economic scene. China’s GDP grew by 5.3 percent in the first three months of this year compared to the same period last year, a faster rate than the 5.2 percent growth in the preceding quarter, according to figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

U.S. extends lead over China in race for world’s biggest economy. The US economy's strong performance in 2023, along with the challenges faced by China's economy, suggests that China's GDP overtaking the US is less likely. Gross domestic product data released on Thursday shows that the U.S. has pulled further ahead of China in the race for world’s biggest economy, thanks in part to vibrant American consumers. U.S. GDP rose 6.3% in nominal terms — that is, unadjusted for inflation — last year, outpacing China’s 4.6% gain. While some of the outperformance reflected America’s elevated price increases, the 2023 outturn underscores a broader point: The U.S. economy is emerging from the pandemic period in a better place than China’s The strong performance of the U.S. economy, in tandem with all the short-term and long-term headwinds the Chinese economy is facing, renders it a less obvious proposition that China’s GDP will someday overtake that of the U.S.. But it also reflects a more vibrant state of economic activity. Consumer spending continues to contribute the bulk of growth, while private-sector investment and trade also contributed, along with government spending. In China, a property bust has not subtracted from output but also hurt broader consumer confidence. In the economic front, The US surprised to the upside and China surprised to the downside. The economic outperformance is reflected in the respective countries’ stock markets. US shares have hit all-time highs this week, while Chinese equities are mired in a US$6 trillion-plus (S$8 trillion-plus) bear-market rout. All the talk of China becoming the world’s largest economy by GDP has been put on the back burner and delayed, if not indefinitely postponed. Comment your thoughts below Follow Manjushree Sudheendra for more #india #us #china #gdp #economy