Matteo Giovannini 马特奥’s Post

IMF announced on Wednesday that China’s economy is projected to grow by 5% this year The International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced on Wednesday that China’s economy is projected to grow by 5% this year, following a robust first quarter. This is an upgrade from their previous forecast of 4.6% growth, although they anticipate a slowdown in the coming years. As Beijing intensifies its efforts to bolster an uneven recovery in the world’s second-largest economy, the IMF has updated its projections. The Chinese economy has been struggling due to a prolonged property crisis and its subsequent impact on investors, consumers, and businesses. The IMF has increased its GDP targets for 2024 and 2025 by 0.4 percentage points each. However, it cautioned that China’s growth would decelerate to 3.3% by 2029 due to an ageing population and slower productivity growth, according to Reuters. https://lnkd.in/dFq4pBH3 The IMF now predicts that China’s economy will grow by 5% in 2024 and slow down to 4.5% in 2025. Gita Gopinath, the IMF’s First Deputy Managing Director, stated in Beijing that the upgraded forecast for this year primarily reflects stronger than expected GDP growth in the first quarter and the recent announcement of additional policy measures. https://bit.ly/4bNbBej China’s faltering recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic has weighed on stock markets and the Chinese yuan, with several rounds of policy support measures yet to stimulate robust demand. Analysts believe that the ongoing crisis in the property sector is the most significant obstacle to a full economic recovery. The IMF has also issued a warning about the potential risks ahead, according to Reuters. Gopinath noted that the outlook’s risks are skewed to the downside, including from a more significant or longer-than-expected adjustment in the property sector and increasing fragmentation pressures. China announced ‘historic’ measures this month to stabilise the property market. https://bit.ly/3V1EmhE However, analysts argue that these steps are insufficient for a sustainable recovery. Picture credit: The Gulf Today #china #gdp #imf #property #exports

China's economy is expected to continue struggling in 2024 due to several key factors, including declining pent-up demand, a persistent real estate slump, slowing foreign demand for Chinese products, and limited room for major stimulus. The Conference Board forecasts GDP growth to decelerate to 4.1% in 2024, down from an estimated 5.2% in 2023. This ongoing struggle reflects deeper structural issues within the economy. #ChinaEconomy #GDPGrowth #EconomicOutlook #GlobalTrade

IMF announced on Wednesday that China’s economy is projected to grow by 5% this year The International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced on Wednesday that China’s economy is projected to grow by 5% this year, following a robust first quarter. This is an upgrade from their previous forecast of 4.6% growth, although they anticipate a slowdown in the coming years. As Beijing intensifies its efforts to bolster an uneven recovery in the world’s second-largest economy, the IMF has updated its projections. The Chinese economy has been struggling due to a prolonged property crisis and its subsequent impact on investors, consumers, and businesses. The IMF has increased its GDP targets for 2024 and 2025 by 0.4 percentage points each. However, it cautioned that China’s growth would decelerate to 3.3% by 2029 due to an ageing population and slower productivity growth, according to Reuters. https://lnkd.in/gG22Kwdr The IMF now predicts that China’s economy will grow by 5% in 2024 and slow down to 4.5% in 2025. Gita Gopinath, the IMF’s First Deputy Managing Director, stated in Beijing that the upgraded forecast for this year primarily reflects stronger than expected GDP growth in the first quarter and the recent announcement of additional policy measures. https://bit.ly/4bNbBej China’s faltering recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic has weighed on stock markets and the Chinese yuan, with several rounds of policy support measures yet to stimulate robust demand. Analysts believe that the ongoing crisis in the property sector is the most significant obstacle to a full economic recovery. The IMF has also issued a warning about the potential risks ahead, according to Reuters. Gopinath noted that the outlook’s risks are skewed to the downside, including from a more significant or longer-than-expected adjustment in the property sector and increasing fragmentation pressures. China announced ‘historic’ measures this month to stabilise the property market. https://bit.ly/3V1EmhE However, analysts argue that these steps are insufficient for a sustainable recovery. Picture credit: The Gulf Today #china #gdp #imf #property #exports

Further evidence that China’s economy is recovering from a sluggish few years. It’s no surprise given the amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus that is now flowing with investment in the green energy transition one of the main drivers of the rebound. Good news….this all underpins global growth and makes a major recession highly unlikely near term. Bad news…China has been a source of deflation for some time, helping to cap Western inflationary force. So with the Chinese economy perking up we are likely to see further upside pressure on global prices and interest rates. Although the (extreme) weakness in China’s property sector looks set to endure, which almost certainly rules out the country suffering from its only inflationary problem any time soon.

U.S. politics seem focused on keeping China's economy (measured in U.S. dollars) from overtaking the U.S. GDP. This is a fool's errand. China will surpass the U.S. even without U.S. participation. So, the question about China’s future in the world can be restated in the following way: can it achieve the same level of prosperity relative to the US that Poland already has?  That would be one more doubling in its relative GDP per head. Is this really going to be so hard? Before concluding that it will be, it is worth noting that China’s GDP per head, relative to the US, went from 2 percent to 28 percent of US levels from 1980 to 2022. This is just under four doublings.  Is another doubling over, say, 20 years inconceivable? With China's growth rate, it will more likely be ten years. If China's relative GDP per head doubles, it will match Poland’s. Then, its GDP would be more than double that of the US and bigger than that of the US and EU together. My concern is if the U.S. wants to stop China, the only way will be a war.

China's Struggles and Concerning Trends * Slowing Growth: GDP growth falls to 4.7% in Q2. * Weak Consumer Demand: Household spending decreases. * Property Market Crisis: Investment drops by 10.1%. * Trade Tensions: Exports rise, but friction persists. * Leadership Concerns: Policy support seen as inadequate. China's economic engine falters, growing only 4.7% in the second quarter, missing forecasts. The once mighty dragon now battles sluggish consumer demand and a property market in disarray. Analysts call for stronger stimulus as property investment plummets 10.1%, casting shadows on the future. Retail sales rose a mere 2% in June, signaling deep-seated consumer caution. The leadership in Beijing faces a daunting task. Their economic plenum, traditionally a beacon for policy direction, now feels the weight of these troubles. The central bank's rate holds steady, but whispers of ineffective policy grow louder. The property sector's woes pull down overall fixed asset investment, while home prices keep falling, despite desperate measures to revive confidence. Export growth, a lone bright spot, can't mask the broader concerns. Industrial production slowed, and car sales dipped for the fourth straight month. The leadership's cautious stance hints at fear of losing face, opting for modest tweaks over bold reforms. The world watches as China's struggles deepen, questioning if the giant can reclaim its stride or if this marks a prolonged slowdown. #ChinaEconomy #PropertyCrisis #ConsumerSlump #TradeTensions #EconomicPlenum

#todayinsight: China's Economic Dilemma: Deepening Deflation and Moody’s Downgrade Warning Amid Sluggish Recovery China's inflation fell further into negative territory. In November, the annual change in the consumer price index was 50 basis points, which was 30 basis points lower than predicted. Factory gate prices (PPI) deflation, on the other hand, has deepened, pointing to growing deflationary pressures as domestic consumer weakness casts doubt on the economic recovery. The producer price index (PPI) fell 3.0% year on year in November, compared to a 2.6% drop in October, marking the 14th consecutive month in which the PPI is declining. China's PMI data was mixed anyway; manufacturing PMI from various sources indicated both positive and negative growth. In any case, soft economic data is not as important as hard economic data. Soft data, such as PMI, are collected through surveys and questionnaires, whereas hard data, such as inflation figures, are used to create ex-post economic indicators of the economy rather than agents' predictions for the coming months.  Last week, Moody's issued a downgrade warning on China's credit rating, stating that the costs of bailing out local governments and state firms, as well as controlling the property crisis, would put additional strain on the Chinese economy, which has already lost momentum. China's finance minister described Moody’s warning  as disappointing while assuring that the risks are manageable. Meanwhile, we can be certain that economic growth has slowed in comparison to a decade ago. #todayinsight #globaleconomy #globaltrade Source: The Daily Shot

China's economy grew slightly more than the official target in 2023 China's economy grew slightly more than the official target in 2023, but the recovery was far shakier than many analysts and investors expected. GDP grew 5.2% in October-December from a year earlier, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data showed, quickening from 4.9% in Q3 but missing a 5.3% forecast in a Reuters poll, according to Reuters. https://reut.rs/3U3XcEW On a quarter-by-quarter basis, however, GDP grew 1.0%, slowing from a revised 1.5% gain in the previous quarter. Industrial output increased 4.6% in 2023. Exports held up and rose 0.6% on a yuan basis last year. A deepening property crisis, mounting deflationary risks, and tepid demand cast a pall over the outlook for this year. Expectations that the world's second-largest economy would stage a strong post-COVID bounce quickly fizzled as the year progressed. Weak consumer and business confidence, mounting local government debts, and slowing global growth sharply weighed on jobs, activity, and investment, according to Reuters. https://bit.ly/3U5kvhC Analysts say that maintaining a similar growth target of around 5% for this year may be a tall order even with additional stimulus. Policy insiders expect Beijing to maintain the target, but China Beige Book International's latest survey suggests that any true acceleration this year will require either a major global upside surprise or more active government policy, according to Reuters. Analysts said stock market investors appeared most rattled by ominous real estate data on Wednesday. China's December new home prices fell at the fastest pace in nearly nine years, marking the sixth straight month of declines, NBS data showed. New home prices in December logged their steepest drop since February 2015, while property sales measured by floor area fell 23% in December from a year earlier while new construction starts fell 20.4%., data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed on Wednesday, according to Reuters. https://bit.ly/4b0uFG1 Picture credit: LSEG datastream and Reuters #china #chinaeconomy #gdp #propertysales #industrialoutput #export

China's economy grew slightly more than the official target in 2023 China's economy grew slightly more than the official target in 2023, but the recovery was far shakier than many analysts and investors expected. GDP grew 5.2% in October-December from a year earlier, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data showed, quickening from 4.9% in Q3 but missing a 5.3% forecast in a Reuters poll, according to Reuters. https://reut.rs/3U3XcEW On a quarter-by-quarter basis, however, GDP grew 1.0%, slowing from a revised 1.5% gain in the previous quarter. Industrial output increased 4.6% in 2023. Exports held up and rose 0.6% on a yuan basis last year. A deepening property crisis, mounting deflationary risks, and tepid demand cast a pall over the outlook for this year. Expectations that the world's second-largest economy would stage a strong post-COVID bounce quickly fizzled as the year progressed. Weak consumer and business confidence, mounting local government debts, and slowing global growth sharply weighed on jobs, activity, and investment, according to Reuters. https://bit.ly/3U5kvhC Analysts say that maintaining a similar growth target of around 5% for this year may be a tall order even with additional stimulus. Policy insiders expect Beijing to maintain the target, but China Beige Book International's latest survey suggests that any true acceleration this year will require either a major global upside surprise or more active government policy, according to Reuters. Analysts said stock market investors appeared most rattled by ominous real estate data on Wednesday. China's December new home prices fell at the fastest pace in nearly nine years, marking the sixth straight month of declines, NBS data showed. New home prices in December logged their steepest drop since February 2015, while property sales measured by floor area fell 23% in December from a year earlier while new construction starts fell 20.4%., data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed on Wednesday, according to Reuters. https://bit.ly/4b0uFG1 Picture credit: LSEG datastream and Reuters #china #chinaeconomy #gdp #propertysales #industrialoutput #export