Good Governance Africa’s Post

As China seeks to become a high per-capita income country whilst remaining totalitarian, Erik Britton, highlights the “strong correlation between economic freedom and living standards as measured by gross domestic product per head of population”. https://lnkd.in/eggjhjXd #FathomChina #Chinaeconomy #USeconomy

🇺🇸 The next U.S. president’s policies will shape global politics and economics, especially as U.S.-China rivalry heats up. Trump has long opposed China's "developing country" status, arguing it gives China unfair advantages like low tariffs and trade benefits. 📜 In March 2023, the U.S. House passed the "PRC Is Not a Developing Country Act," calling for international organizations to revoke China’s status. ⚖️ If Trump wins, he may escalate tariffs, sanctions, and controls against China, potentially worsening relations and damaging China’s economic standing. 📈 Impact on Trade and Power China's removal from "developing country" status in the WTO would raise costs for Chinese goods, making other countries like Vietnam or India more competitive. International funds could shift from China to these nations. In global organizations like the World Bank, stricter loan terms for China may follow, with the U.S. leveraging this to shift global financial power. 🌐 Global Political and Economic Effects China has used its developing status to build ties with poorer nations. Losing this status may force China to increase support to maintain influence. Investors might also move funds to faster-growing developing economies if China is seen as offering less growth potential. 📩 Send us a message and let us know how we can help #USElection2024 #GlobalPolitics #USChinaRivalry #TrumpPolicy #TradeWar #DevelopingCountries #InternationalTrade #GlobalPowerShift #ChinaEconomy #Tariffs #BeltAndRoad #WorldEconomy #FinancialInfluence #Sustainability #EconomicGrowth #Geopolitics

Beijing has escalated its economic support measures amid mounting signs of a worsening economic slowdown and increasing pressure from the United States. The country, which has faced structural issues including an ageing population and a hard COVID lockdown when the rest of the world was emerging from that crisis, has now endured years of economic stagnation and a deepening property crisis. China has been grappling with negative producer prices, declining consumer prices and weakening domestic demand, contributing to a slower economic growth trajectory. With the re-election of Donald Trump, who has signalled a renewed trade offensive against China, there is growing concern over the Asian giant’s economic future. More at #Proactive #ProactiveInvestors #China #Economy #US #Trade #GlobalEconomy #TradeRelations #ChinaEconomy #USChinaRelations http://ow.ly/YBT7105OLbM

THE LENS — China will face more economic headwinds this year than last. Meeting its economic target in 2024 was not easy; meeting its target in 2025 will be even harder. Business implications: 🧾 Most of the challenges that businesses have been facing in China since last year will, unfortunately, persist into this year.  🧾 Compounding these issues are potential tariffs from the Trump administration, which are likely to impact large swathes of firms manufacturing in China and exporting to the US.  🧾 Although President Trump has not yet imposed tariffs on Chinese exports, it is crucial for companies to assess their exposure to potential US tariff increases without delay.    Get an outlook on China’s growth for 2025 here. https://lnkd.in/eMZmYPfv Have you subscribed to The Lens? 🗞️ Sign up for FrontierView’s newsletter published by our Global Economics and Scenarios team for weekly insights. https://lnkd.in/eyhH44HT #china #trump #economy #globaleconomy

China's economic growth has been slowing due to various challenges, such as an aging population, a shrinking workforce, and structural inefficiencies. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) was a significant part of China's global strategy, aiming to expand its influence through infrastructure investments worldwide. However, as China's economy weakens, countries like Canada, once a strong trade partner, are reevaluating their relationships. Recent tariffs on Chinese goods signal a shift in Canada's trade preferences. Find out more about this evolving economic landscape: [Link to the article] #China #Economy #Trade #BeltandRoad #Canada #Tariffs

China expressed hope for enhanced cooperation with the United States on trade during Donald Trump's presidency. A spokesperson from the Chinese government stated that despite differences, both nations stand to benefit significantly from a stable and mutually beneficial trade relationship. China emphasized the importance of dialogue and resolving disputes through negotiations rather than confrontation. This statement came amidst growing concerns over potential trade conflicts, as Trump had often criticized China's trade practices during his campaign and vowed to adopt a tougher stance. The two economic giants share deeply intertwined trade ties, and any friction could have global economic implications. Beijing stressed the need to focus on shared interests, particularly in sectors like technology, agriculture, and manufacturing, to ensure long-term economic stability.

Whither China China has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of globalization. Deng’s reforms transformed China – foreign trade grew from $20 billion in pre-Deng era to about $475 billion on eve of China’s accession to World Trade organization to about $6 trillion now. China’s GDP grew by an average of 9% for decades but is struggling now with a post pandemic growth of about 5.2% in 2023 and about 4.5% expected in 2024. Many structural issues cropped such as slowing productivity growth, reducing labor force (no longer cheap in any case) etc. leading to diminishing returns. China’s bungling of real estate sector in the last couple of years is has sent the economy into a tailspin. The key problem is political – Xi ditched Deng’s sensible policies to exclusively focus on consolidating his hold on power.  Economic activity, both public and private, has been brought under the strangle hold of the party. He is stroking ultra nationalistic sentiments to control the population by aggressive posturing on international issues from south China sea saber rattling to raking up border disputes with neighbours to repeated assertions on taking back Taiwan to general highhandedness displayed by Chinese diplomats across geopolitical issues. Xi’s social contract with Chinese people – will stay out of politics for a prosperous future – is fraying with economic slowdown. All inconvenient economic data is being purged and is being replaced by propaganda. It looks as though the propaganda has gained a life of its own. Xi is deeply immersed in it and is completely isolated from reality.   

Just how much trouble is China’s economy in? Is Xi Jinping still trusted by Chinese people to solve growing economic woes? These questions are incredibly important for many Western economies relying on China to drive global economic growth and support their exports. Arguably no country is more reliant than Australia on China”s economic trajectory. It is always difficult for those of us in the West to answer these questions as we are bombarded with political propaganda focused on geopolitical agendas of preserving American hegemony at all costs. Official Chinese statistics are often questioned . Whilst it is easy to dismiss claims of problems in China’s economy as over exaggerated, the signs are growing that there is some substance to the claims that China is facing a major challenge to its decades long economic success story. This article states: “Youth unemployment is high, private enterprises are languishing under government control and the party's long-standing economic success is tested by the aging and declining population.”. At the ACBC’s Canberra Networking Day last month there was talk of youth unemployment at 14%. I fear that the truth is much worse. Reports of close to half of China’s university graduates being unable to find jobs are increasing. Chinese business people are beginning privately to voice concerns over the ability of the CPC’s policies to reverse the decline and some are wistfully longing for the leadership and policies of a new Deng Xiaoping. Whatever the true situation - there are certainly rain clouds on the horizon for Australia as the consequences of economic slowdown begin to click in. The backbone of our economy - resources exports to China - are faltering and with China increasingly committed to increasing the volume of seaborne iron ore trade from Africa, the medium term outlook is uncertain and concerning. We know that it will take decades to replace any significant amount of our trade to China. So it is as important as ever that we do not take action or engage in rhetoric that places further strain on our relations with our major customer. Now is a critical time when we need to be closer to China if we are to achieve the best possible outcome for our economy in the face of headwinds. #china #australia #economy #unitedstates #ironore #xijinping https://lnkd.in/gE_FcYe2

This week we have seen a new twist in the US #tariff war against China, perhaps in the face of evidence that trade war is not working. Qiyuan Xu explains why. According to his analysis the China-US #tradewar has strengthened, not weakened, the #competitiveness of China's exports due to its impact on the #exchangerate. The #inflation rate in the #US in the last two years has been ten percentage points higher than in China. Accordingly the RMB should have appreciated 10% against the dollar; instead, it depreciated 11%. From this perspective, the RMB was 21% undervalued against the dollar. Anyway, #China has not acted as a #currency manipulator in recent years. In this respect, the current situation is very different from that of a decade ago. Simply China's massive current account surplus has not led to an appreciation of the RMB, as might be expected, due to high #capital #outflows. These capital outflows cannot be attributed solely to changes in the #interestrate differential between China and the US. In fact, the capital outflow is mainly the result of the escalation of Sino-US tensions and the adoption by the US of a series of policies that discourage investment in China.