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Are we standing at the precipice of a banking crisis triggered by the commercial real estate downturn? 📉 This question demands urgent, informed insights.💡 Join us for an information-packed webinar led by Neal Bawa as he navigates the intricate interplay between banking and real estate. By tuning in, you’ll also learn valuable information about certain asset classes that shine as beacons of stability and potential growth. 🧐 Are Banks Facing a Crisis from the Commercial Real Estate Downturn? 🤔 Register for this webinar today! 👉https://lnkd.in/gNydjS72 Neal delivers a revealing analysis, shedding light on over 280 banks at risk due to their significant exposure to commercial real estate loans. He pinpoints the most vulnerable institutions and delves into the strategies they're employing to manage and reduce this risk. Neal's presentation will explore: ✅ The FED’s cautious dance with inflation and interest rates and the delicate but hopeful economic outlook 🔮 ✅ The banking sector's balancing act and a precarious situation for the challenging commercial real estate landscape ⚖️ ✅ Why the era of cheap money is officially over 🥲 ✅ Why multifamily remains a shining star despite economic conditions 🌟 Register your spot today! 👉https://lnkd.in/gNydjS72

CREDITS SOURING AND WHALES EXITING We know Buffet in net seller, Bezos Sold, Zuckerberg Sold, DIMON sold KRE index is down. Let's unpack banking FDIC Q4, it's not looking very good, it's not catastrophic, but it's very mediocre to bad-ish. Going south. This is a report that clients receive much earlier than shown here so they can position themselves. - COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL LOANS ARE IN CONTRACTION FOR THE 4TH CONSECUTIVE QUARTER. - Delinquencies in credit cards not seen since 2011 - CRE is back to 2014 non-current rates (particularly big banks - Covid hurt a lot) - Net interest margins are shrinking now - Banks are a bit scared they are provisioning at a level not seen since 2010 - But we have reserves and coverage ratios. - Decline in earnings for the banking system in 2023 - Highest Net Interest Margin but falling for 2 quarters now - large decline in earnings in Q4 but a lot of one time charges. - without that 15% down in Q4 - community bank down 9.9% due to noninterest expenses and higher provision expense - net interest margins down due to higher deposit expenses and non-deposit liability funding - HTM losses can only gap upwards with a large change in rates, without a large change, they accrue, mature. - So Q3 loan growth was very low at 0.4%, Q4 was up at 0.9% but a lot was seasonal credit cards (Thanksgiving/ Christmas) - It could be good, except that the delinquencies are not at level last seen in 2011 - Yoy loan growth at year end 1.8% so not much better than inflation - Community banks growth is better at 1.8% QoQ and 7.8% that means the non-community banks are contracting - Deterioration in CRE and credit loans portfolio. Not catastrophic but quite mediocre / going the wrong direction in cycle - Overall current rate is better than pre-pandemic - CRE problem: weak demand and high rates for refinancing - CRE non-current rate is at 2014 levels - Non current credit card loans at Q3 2011 levels - We are higher than pre-pandemic by only 17 bps though - Deposits increased due to reverse T-Bills year from Fed plus - Banks are now finally caring about their deposits leakage, that means profitability will sink - When they do that it means they starting to slowly fight for deposits. - 2023 higher noninterest expense, provision expense, and realized losses .... More in the full report. the full banking report https://t.co/hXdOLRT https://lnkd.in/dci5ki_i

𝗕𝗿𝗮𝗰𝗲 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗜𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗰𝘁: Top Executives Warn of Looming Regional Bank Failures Amid Commercial Real Estate Woes. Prominent voices, including PIMCO's John Murray and Newmark's Howard Lutnick, are sounding the alarm about the impending wave of distress poised to rock regional banks due to their heavy exposure to troubled commercial real estate loans. With devaluation risks, rising interest rates, and office sector turmoil, the stage is set for a potential banking crisis. Stay informed and engaged as this unfolding situation could have far-reaching implications for the economy and the real estate market. Follow for more insights and analysis on this critical issue. Click the link to read more.

More than a year out from the regional banking failures of 2023, we expect negative press reports to continue as the true financial impact will likely stretch over a period of years. The silver lining is that banks and other lenders have time to address underlying issues. https://lnkd.in/gXUMaqRr

First quarter #earnings season is getting started, with the largest banks reporting first. In the wake of last year’s regional banking crisis and the potential new normal of higher-for-longer interest rates, all eyes are on the health of the U.S. financial system. With #commercialrealestate (CRE) still searching for its bottom, losses related to CRE exposures are of particular concern for the banking industry. Read on in our #chartoftheweek by Jessica Noviskis, CFA and Grace Colson at the link.

The National Bureau of Economic Research published this Working Paper (attached link) in December regarding the current state of the Commercial Real Estate Business in the US and the Banking System jeopardy. 2,184 Banks in question. So,...I'll save you reading the entire research if you don't want to. Here is the directly quoted punchline from 'Page 16, Section 5.0 Conclusion' If you prefer to download their .pdf ...it is within their link below. Conclusion: "If all uninsured depositors would withdraw their money, up to 385 mainly smaller regional banks could fail due CRE distress (in addition to 1,799 banks facing such risk just due to higher interest rates)." https://lnkd.in/g8ED--XW

More than a year out from the regional banking failures of 2023, we expect negative press reports to continue as the true financial impact will likely stretch over a period of years. The silver lining is that banks and other lenders have time to address underlying issues. https://lnkd.in/ezRyp9km

You’ve likely felt concerns over concentrations of distressed commercial real estate across the banking industry. Consistent with headlines, the rate environment and sizable provisions for credit losses, coupled with the recognition of realistic income-based valuations, may present a notable impact. More US Regional Bank Failures May Be Coming https://lnkd.in/ehpWjDdX

Grant Cardone comments on Powell’s article about commercial real estate in @fortune https://lnkd.in/eP76ufaA A problem we’ll be working on for years’: Fed chair Jerome Powell says commercial real estate’s impact on banking has just begun. #realestate #commericalrealestate #wealthmanagement #wealthcreation #money #investing

Yellen foresees challenges ahead for banks as real estate faces losses, anticipating a tough road ahead for the financial sector. https://lnkd.in/gA8BnNSQ #Yellen #FinancialChallenges #RealEstateLosses #BankingSector #EconomicOutlook #FinancialSector #EconomicChallenges #MarketForecast #YellenSpeaks #FinancialRisk #EconomicTrends #BankingNews #RealEstateMarket #GlobalEconomy #EconomicAnalysis