"Tropical storm #Ernesto formed Monday afternoon and is expected to approach Puerto Rico by Tuesday night as a tropical storm with sustained winds less than 60 MPH", comments Anna Neely, Head of Catastrophe R&D at Howden Re. "Though we have seen a few rapidly intensifying storms already this season, that is not in the current forecast for Ernesto. After tonight, the storm will likely turn north, becoming primarily a "fish storm" in the Atlantic, meaning it won't significantly impact land. Ernesto is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane, and we'll keep an eye on its potential impacts Bermuda. Notably, Bermuda’s structures are built to withstand much stronger storms than what we expect to see from Ernesto, so any damage that might occur would be limited."
#Ernesto is currently moving west at about 20 mph, slightly slower than before and is expected to turn west-northwest and slow down further in the next 12 hours as it approaches a break in the subtropical high-pressure system. This movement should bring the center near or over the Leeward Islands today, and close to or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight and early Wednesday. After that, the storm is likely to turn north and then northeast as it interacts with weather systems moving eastward from the U.S. By the end of the forecast period, the storm may slow down again as the influence of these systems decreases. The new forecast track is close to the consensus of various models and is similar to the previous track. Ernesto is expected to be in an environment with light to moderate wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures, conditions that should allow it to strengthen. Model guidance suggest Ernesto will strengthen into a Hurricane in 36-48 hours. Ernesto will likely be a mainly fish storm; however, we will need to monitor model tracks as is gets closer to Bermuda.
