International Monetary Fund’s Post

The impact of conflict is sharper in Middle East and Central Asian economies, which lose about 2% in real GDP per capita a year after the start of a conflict, with the decline extending to about 10% after a decade. Find out why in our latest blog. https://lnkd.in/gUtbrUSi

Inflation in developing economies in Asia and the Pacific continues to moderate, partly due to the lingering effects of higher interest rates and a slight easing of global food prices. Explore the latest Asian Development Outlook for more economic insights and analysis. #ADO2024 📊👉 https://ow.ly/K1ab50SFNJF

My new commentary on the shrinking economies of UK and Japan is out:

With #covid behind us, the world is cautiously optimistic on 2024. Economic growth and global inflation continue to be the focus for global economist as the World Economic Forum report points. #Asia Pacific seems better hedged to navigate the headwinds and showing lower inflation and higher growth. #Europe and #northamerica outlook on both economic growth and inflation projection is most concerning. #UK and #Japan has already fallen into #recession in end of 2023.

This week, the Center for Global Business | Robert H. Smith School of Business' Global Pulse delves into the topic of "Shrinking Economies in the UK and Japan." Visiting Assistant Professor of #Finance Aysun Alp Paukowits at the University of Maryland - Robert H. Smith School of Business explains how the economies in the #UK and #Japan reached recession status. Although very different scenarios, Alp Paukowits details greater concerns regarding how these countries will break the stagnation cycle. Watch now to hear more about the global #economy and how it related to the US: https://lnkd.in/eG4EiP5W

IMF Director of Asia & Pacific Krishna Srinivasan: Despite robust demand growth, inflation in Asia has continued to retreat. The impact of earlier interest rate increases, a global decline in the price of commodities and goods, and the abating of supply-chain disruptions after the pandemic all contributed to this outcome. But disinflation has been uneven. In some advanced economies—notably New Zealand, Australia and Korea—persistent services inflation has kept inflation above target. In Thailand and China, consumer prices have fallen. Inflation excluding food and energy is low, which, in China, reflects legacy issues from the pandemic and the property sector correction. In other countries in the region, inflation is close to target. Interested in learning more? Read our new blog: https://lnkd.in/d5RPJr4w Read the full Regional Economic Outlook report and watch the press conference: https://lnkd.in/ezex3ZjN

Most economies in East Asia & the Pacific are set to grow faster than the rest of the world. And according to The World Bank developing economies East Asia & the Pacific are set to see slowing growth, with higher-for-longer interest rates & geopolitical tensions. GDP growth forecast 2024-25 ➡ East Asia & the Pacific Region: 4.4% ➡ East Asia & the Pacific Region excluding China: 4.7% ➡ China: 4.4% ➡ Pacific Island Countries: 3.4% If China invades Taiwan it would cost the world economy approximately $10 trillion, whereas the world is not ready for this. A restructure of taxation & more transparency can help the nation recover from its property crisis. And it is projected to grow 4.5% this year. Cambodia, Philippines & Vietnam are projected to by above 5% this year & approximately 6% next year. Projections for Myanmar & Thailand remain slow. Corporate debt in China & Vietnam remains high, whereas household debt in China, Malaysia & Thailand remains higher than those in other emerging markets. With extreme weather events increasing, global debt rising, & major elections coming things remain unclear in the short-term. #eastasia #asean #geopolitics #apac #macroeconomics #economics #economy #asianeconomy #china #taiwan

“Core inflation in the US and EU remains elevated and labor markets remain tight, suggesting interest rates will remain higher than pre-pandemic levels in the in the foreseeable future,” the World Bank said.  The World Bank also aired a warning about the sharp increase in debt in the region, which keeps borrowing costs high and squeezes both consumption and investment. Corporate debt in China and Vietnam has risen by more than 40 percentage points of GDP since 2010 and exceeded the level in advanced economies, it said. Household debt in China, Malaysia and Thailand is also higher than those in other emerging markets. On the external front, increased trade protectionism — mostly wielded by advanced economies — could hurt growth for developing East Asia and the Pacific as it limits access to key markets like the US, South Korea and Japan. Firms receiving subsidies are potential competitors of the region’s firms. Almost 3,000 new trade-distorting measures were imposed in 2023, three times as large as those in 2019, it added. #economygrowth  #interestrate  #marketdevelopment  #businessstrategy #supplychainstrategy

In the fourth quarter of 2023, major advanced economies, excluding the UK, sustained robust growth, while the UK, US, China, and Japan maintained economic momentum. The Eurozone avoided contraction, but the UK's slowdown worsened, causing a technical recession. Inflation trends vary with the US facing uneven disinflation. Above the ECB's target, Japanese inflation eased but remained above BOJ's target, and China experienced a price rise in February after four months of deflation, driven by non-food price hikes.   How will these diverse inflation trajectories influence global economic outlooks ahead? Find out from the #latest #CRISIL perspective, download the detailed report:  https://lnkd.in/gabcJvEa #globaleconomy #CRISILinsights #USEconomy #UKEconomy #ChinaEconomy #JapanEconomy

Largest Economies in the World (1991 - 2024)