I wrote this article about why #PoliticalPolling is often wrong during the last midterm, but it still holds up today. There are a few constraints pollsters are up against that can cloud their crystal balls. 1. Political pollsters contact people via voter registration lists. Not everyone registers to vote, and not everyone who is registered actually votes, so there is a smaller pool to choose from from the start. Pollsters are trying to gauge who will actually vote from that list. (Plus, there are also behavioral differences between #Democrats and #Republicans, e.g., Republicans are less likely to respond to surveys.) 2. Political polling is done by phone. Eighty percent of Americans don't answer calls from numbers they don't recognize. 3. Elections these days are more controversial than ever, and many people don't feel comfortable sharing their opinions (believe it or not). Polling is a science, but with so many hurdles, it’s also an art. However, with the right outreach, time, and diligent analysis, polls can paint a more realistic portrait. Election polling unfortunately does not have those luxuries.
In recent years, many US residents may have noticed that #ElectionPolling is often wrong. Polco Survey Research Principal Erin Caldwell explains the limitations political pollsters are up against and how that can lead to inaccurate predictions. Learn how election polling is done and how those methods compare to gold standard surveying. https://lnkd.in/gCj7D6Xg #PoliticalPolling #InformedDecisions #CommunityEngagement #KnowledgeIsPower
