John Hancock Investment Management’s Post

☀️ Good morning! This week’s #marketintelligence weekly is up! Tune in below for 5 minute highlights with Matthew Miskin CFA 💡 comment or DM with any questions 🗓️ message me to schedule a 20min 1:1 zoom review with Matthew Miskin CFA or Emily Roland #teamJH #marketcommentary #marketoutlook John Hancock Investment Management

If the U.S. #economy had a relationship status, it would be it's complicated. We had two different U.S. business surveys showing vastly different trends in June from the #ISM reflecting a deterioration to the S&P (previously Markit) with an improvement to 2-year highs. The June #jobs report had a similar story with the headline job gains beating expectations at +206k, but prior two month revisions were -111k. The biggest sectors for job gains government +70k and health care +49k. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1%. This week we have another key #CPI (inflation) report on tap. John Hancock Investment Management

Our #marketintelligence weekly video is live! Check it out for everything you need to know about what drove #markets last week, and what's coming up in the week ahead, all in ~5 minutes!

I haven't met anyone who has felt like the economy is actually doing well. There are always going to be pockets of growth, especially in certain emerging tech sectors, but by and large the economy is doing really bad. And consumer sentiment reflects it: the The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index declined in August to 106.1 (1985=100), from a downwardly revised 114.0 in July. Their other indices - the Present Situation Index and the Expectations Index - also fell sharply. The unemployment rate also seems low, but that fails to take into account all who have left the labor force and the downward revisions in employment. Every jobs report gets revised upwards or downwards after the fact, so when you see downwards revisions, it's actually worse than it seems. This is not a doom and gloom message - there is much to be optimistic over - but we also need to engage the structural problems in the economy and not dismiss them. #economics #macroeconomics #growth #productivity #consumersentiment #consumerbehavior #unemployment #employment https://lnkd.in/eenB9sR7

The U.S. economy showed steady growth in 2023. The job growth rate in the United States exceeded expectations, while unemployment dropped lower than anticipated. We recap some key takeaways from Q4 2023 so you can plan for the future. https://bit.ly/3T4iIqN #EBWealth #MarketUpdate #MarketOutlook

FORECAST SAYS US CREATED 200,000 JOBS IN JULY, POTENTIAL RECESSION IN DOUBT (US NEWS AND WORLD REPORT) July 31, 2023 Expectations are that US employers created 200,000 jobs this month, close to the 209,000 created in June, according to an article in US News and World Report. The US has also seen better-than-expected inflation data, and other data seems to point to the economy cooling off enough to stem inflation without the US falling into a recession. “The bottom line? The sharp decline in inflation and resurgence in growth in the second quarter has raised hopes that a recession might be avoided in the near term,” Jim Baird, chief investment strategist at Plante Moran financial advisors, told US News and World Report.

Earlier today, the much anticipated U.S Jobs report was released. When Economists “miss” by a large margin, it is usually a sign that the economy’s momentum has accelerated faster in the “other” direction. My model is showing the following: 1) Equity market correction by first week April. 2) Wave growth will flatten, then decline. 3) So called Inflation will continue to decline to 1.5% by the end of Q3. 4) EPS will slow throughout the rest of the year. 5) unemployment will continue to rise.

The latest jobs report for June 2024 exceeded analysts' predictions with an addition of 206,000 jobs, but the rise in unemployment to 4.1% raises concerns. Job growth was seen in various sectors, showcasing a broader-based recovery, while steady wage growth outpacing inflation poses challenges for policymakers. The U.S. economy is on a recovery path with resilience shown in job creation, but monitoring indicators like unemployment and inflation will be crucial for future policy decisions. https://lnkd.in/ePWY-bPn

A lot of people's rather pessimistic sentiment about the U.S. economy is still disconnected from the reality of our strong economy across most indicators. Yesterday's new economic data proofs that the U.S. economy continues to be the best performing large economy globally. Here is some of the newest economic data: - U.S. employers added a seasonally adjusted 300,000+ jobs in March, significantly more than economists expected and making it thereby the 39th straight month of job growth. - Our unemployment decreased to 3.8% in March vs 3.9% the month prior. The labor participation rate climbed and is currently at 62.7%, higher than a year ago. - There are nationwide 8.8 million job openings as of the end of February, indicating we still have a lot of job growth ahead of us as long as we have the educated workforce available and continued strong immigration. - Average hourly earnings rose 4.1% from a year ago while inflation has fallen drastically from its peak of 7.1% to 2.5% in February, a tremendous sign of progress. I do understand people's frustration with higher prices for most goods and services than a few years back but the economic reality of the U.S. is very positive. Hopefully sooner than later, people's sentiment in the U.S. matches stronger the objective economic reality in our country than currently it does.

The good news for the economy from this jobs report will be seen by many as bad news for markets and monetary policy: The BIG upside surprise in job creation (336,000 versus the consensus estimate of 170,000), and with such widespread gains, will lead to a selloff in both stocks and bonds -- especially as labor force participation did not tick up in any notable way and despite broadly in line earnings. Given how often the Fed has stressed that it is "data dependent," this will put a hike back on the table for markets on November 1. #economy #jobs #unemployment #employment