Founder and Chief Economist at Lorenzo Codogno Macro Advisors Ltd (Eurozone & Italy macroeconomics; check with me for a free trial); Visiting Professor in Practice at London School of Economics & College of Europe
10 June 2024 EUROPEAN ELECTIONS Don’t be taken away by the French baiser sur la joue! The European elections caused a political earthquake in France and led to a predictable shift to the Right in the European Parliament. The pivotal party became the People’s Party (it was Renew Europe), marking a significant change in the political landscape. However, the anticipated wave towards the Far Right did not materialise. Top EU positions can easily find the necessary support of the existing four-party alliance. Ursula von der Leyen is closer to being confirmed for a second term as President of the Commission. Broadening the current alliance to the ECR or just Meloni’s Brothers of Italy looks tricky, although not impossible. Despite today’s hit on European assets, market worries are excessive. Over time, the focus will move to the possible shift in policy priorities. (check with me for full commentary; institutional investors only) #europeanelections #EUpolicies #EUpolitics