Mario Peccia’s Post

Buckle up - it may be a bumpy economic ride for a while longer! I read the latest US Economic Outlook insights page from EY last week while doing some research and found something particularly interesting. Data shows inflation is finally starting to moderate, with consumer prices rising 3.4% over the last year - the lowest rate since April 2021. While the job market remains strong, wage growth is slowing and consumer spending is expected to grow at a modest 2.5% pace this year as higher prices squeeze household budgets. It's not likely that officials will cut interest rates from 5.25-5.5% any time soon: they want to see more of a decline in inflation before taking action. What is your perspective - what do you think we will see in terms of the job market and the pace of inflation for the second half of 2024? https://loom.ly/4CXEZjI

https://lnkd.in/eaZ-QpGd The U.S. economy grew at a 2.9% annual rate in the third quarter, a notable improvement from earlier estimates, despite challenges like high interest rates and inflation. The growth followed two quarters of contraction and was driven by strong exports and robust consumer spending, highlighting the economy’s resilience amid steady hiring, low unemployment, and ample job openings

The US economy is growing, outshining previous estimates for Q4. With a robust 3.4% growth, thanks to consumer spending and business investments, fears of a recession are taking the backseat.   Profits are soaring, especially among non-financial corporations, hinting at a steady path of expansion. And with the Fed's signal of potential rate cuts by June, things are looking up. #USEconomy #EconomyGrowth

As we move into the first quarter, the US economy appears to be on firmer footing. Here are some key takeaways from the latest report: ◼️ GDP growth for the fourth quarter was revised slightly downwards, but its composition was stronger than initially thought, suggesting a positive near-term outlook. ◼️ Despite warnings of a recession, the economy has remained resilient, largely due to a tight labor market that is supporting consumer spending. ◼️ Inflation was revised slightly upwards, but the pace of increase was milder compared to earlier in the year. ◼️ The Federal Reserve has raised its policy rate by 525 basis points since March 2022, which could impact your investment decisions. While the US economy continues to lead the world, uncertainties persist. As a financial professional, I'm here to help navigate these economic shifts. Remember, a well-informed investor is a successful investor! #EconomyUpdate #InvestmentStrategy #FinancialPlanning 🌐💼 Source: https://lnkd.in/gMbrc-9K

As we move into the first quarter, the US economy appears to be on firmer footing. Here are some key takeaways from the latest report: ◼️ GDP growth for the fourth quarter was revised slightly downwards, but its composition was stronger than initially thought, suggesting a positive near-term outlook. ◼️ Despite warnings of a recession, the economy has remained resilient, largely due to a tight labor market that is supporting consumer spending. ◼️ Inflation was revised slightly upwards, but the pace of increase was milder compared to earlier in the year. ◼️ The Federal Reserve has raised its policy rate by 525 basis points since March 2022, which could impact your investment decisions. While the US economy continues to lead the world, uncertainties persist. As a financial professional, I'm here to help navigate these economic shifts. Remember, a well-informed investor is a successful investor! #EconomyUpdate #InvestmentStrategy #FinancialPlanning 🌐💼 Source: https://lnkd.in/dky8zYkz

Why is the U.S. economy poised for a strong second half of the year, despite slowing GDP growth? Our Chief U.S. Economist points to population growth, housing demand and anticipated Fed rate cuts. #Market #InterestRates #GDP #FED #Economy #Stocks

Recent economic data points suggest a more optimistic outlook for the U.S. economy, with key indicators like credit conditions, stock prices, and manufacturing activity showing improvement. The Conference Board reports a 2.1% decline in its Leading Economic Index over the past six months, a less severe drop compared to the previous period. Despite these positive signs, there are still challenges ahead, with expectations of slower economic growth in the coming quarters. While some data may fuel optimism, the likelihood of a recession remains uncertain and could hinge on future consumer and business spending trends. Isn't this what we should expect from a soft landing? It's not quite a recession (this economy is too cold), it's not quite a strong economy (this economy is too hot), but will we get our "Goldilocks moment" where the economy is juuuust right? Stay tuned to find out. #BondInvesting #Economy #Investing #BondMarket

The US economy is showing signs of strength, with GDP growth at a healthy 2.8% annual rate from July through September. Consumer spending is also on the rise, accelerating to a 3.7% annual pace last quarter. This is positive news, but it's important to note that inflation has been steadily cooling. The Federal Reserve will need to carefully balance its policies to support growth while keeping inflation under control. #economy #growth #inflation #gdp #consumers #federalreserve

There’s a sense of cautious optimism in the air. The cooling inflation, coupled with steady consumer spending, is creating a “Goldilocks” scenario—where the economy is neither too hot nor too cold. This could mean we’re in for a smoother economic ride in the near future. I, on the other hand, am not completely convinced. Inflation maybe “cooling” but prices compared to 2020 are still astronomical and wages are not keeping up. Unemployment is ticking up and job growth is stagnating. Feels like the economy is starting to peeter out and the fed appears content to reduce rates at a slow and steady clip. Not sure what your definition of a soft landing is, but I expect there to be some discomfort in the coming months. #USEconomy #Inflation #EconomicTrends #BusinessInsights

The U.S. economy outpaced expectations with a 2.8% annualized growth rate in Q2, driven by increased consumer spending and business investments. This growth could prompt the Federal Reserve to consider a rate cut in September, indicating a potentially softer approach to monetary policy in the near term. While the economy is resilient, previous rate hikes and other uncertainties may shape future growth and economic strategies. #Economy #Inflation #AI