Senior Living Fund’s Post

As we move into the first quarter, the US economy appears to be on firmer footing. Here are some key takeaways from the latest report: ◼️ GDP growth for the fourth quarter was revised slightly downwards, but its composition was stronger than initially thought, suggesting a positive near-term outlook. ◼️ Despite warnings of a recession, the economy has remained resilient, largely due to a tight labor market that is supporting consumer spending. ◼️ Inflation was revised slightly upwards, but the pace of increase was milder compared to earlier in the year. ◼️ The Federal Reserve has raised its policy rate by 525 basis points since March 2022, which could impact your investment decisions. While the US economy continues to lead the world, uncertainties persist. As a financial professional, I'm here to help navigate these economic shifts. Remember, a well-informed investor is a successful investor! #EconomyUpdate #InvestmentStrategy #FinancialPlanning 🌐💼 Source: https://lnkd.in/dky8zYkz

As we move into the first quarter, the US economy appears to be on firmer footing. Here are some key takeaways from the latest report: ◼️ GDP growth for the fourth quarter was revised slightly downwards, but its composition was stronger than initially thought, suggesting a positive near-term outlook. ◼️ Despite warnings of a recession, the economy has remained resilient, largely due to a tight labor market that is supporting consumer spending. ◼️ Inflation was revised slightly upwards, but the pace of increase was milder compared to earlier in the year. ◼️ The Federal Reserve has raised its policy rate by 525 basis points since March 2022, which could impact your investment decisions. While the US economy continues to lead the world, uncertainties persist. As a financial professional, I'm here to help navigate these economic shifts. Remember, a well-informed investor is a successful investor! #EconomyUpdate #InvestmentStrategy #FinancialPlanning 🌐💼 Source: https://lnkd.in/gMbrc-9K

As we move into 2025, the U.S. economy remains resilient, with moderating inflation, steady consumer spending, and a strong labor market. Despite some uncertainty, we’re optimistic about continued growth. The Federal Reserve’s recent rate cuts signal a shift, but balancing inflation control with economic growth will be key. Consumer resilience, supported by real income growth, will keep purchasing power strong, while labor markets remain stable. Corporate earnings, especially in AI and onshoring, offer exciting opportunities, even amid higher interest rates. With careful navigation of policy uncertainties, we can expect 2025 to be a year of growth, innovation, and success. #ConsumerBehavior #Economy #Growth #LaborMarket #MastercardEmployee

Economists are noting a shift in consumer sentiment as inflation cools and the Federal Reserve prepares to lower interest rates. This change, dubbed the end of the "vibecession," suggests that Americans' outlook on the economy is improving, aligning better with actual economic performance. Consumer spending remains resilient, and fears of a recession have subsided, with experts increasingly optimistic about achieving a "soft landing" – slower growth paired with lower inflation. While some still warn of a potential downturn, the chances of a recession in the near term appear to be fading. #Economy #Inflation #Fed #SoftLanding

There’s a sense of cautious optimism in the air. The cooling inflation, coupled with steady consumer spending, is creating a “Goldilocks” scenario—where the economy is neither too hot nor too cold. This could mean we’re in for a smoother economic ride in the near future. I, on the other hand, am not completely convinced. Inflation maybe “cooling” but prices compared to 2020 are still astronomical and wages are not keeping up. Unemployment is ticking up and job growth is stagnating. Feels like the economy is starting to peeter out and the fed appears content to reduce rates at a slow and steady clip. Not sure what your definition of a soft landing is, but I expect there to be some discomfort in the coming months. #USEconomy #Inflation #EconomicTrends #BusinessInsights

I found an insightful article in Financial Times on how the US economy is holding strong as the presidential election approaches. My top takeaways: ⭐ US GDP grew by 2.8% in Q3, just below expectations, showcasing consumer strength despite inflation. ⭐⭐ Consumer spending accelerated to 3.7%, while private-sector job growth added 233,000 roles in October, signalling continued economic stability. ⭐⭐⭐ Economists are hopeful for a “soft landing,” with the Fed’s recent rate cuts and a healthy job market helping ease inflation without major job losses. This article explores how the US economy is surpassing other major economies, driven by consumer confidence and a resilient job market. Definitely worth a read!

The US Economy: Navigating Uncharted Waters The current state of the US economy is intriguing, with strong growth and low unemployment coexisting alongside high interest rates and inflation concerns. In this latest blog post by Liana Wang, we examine the factors contributing to this unique situation and explore why the Federal Reserve might consider cutting interest rates despite the economy's resilience. Here's a sneak peek of what you'll find in the post: • The surprising GDP growth of 2.5% in 2023, despite high interest rates • The potential risks associated with prolonged high interest rates • The Fed's current approach and anticipated trajectory for interest rate cuts But that's just the beginning. To get the full picture and understand the critical factors that will shape the economy's path forward, you'll want to read the entire blog post. Check out the full analysis below. #USeconomy #FederalReserve #interestrates #economicoutlook

Unemployment, Recessions, and the S&P 500 BY PAUL HOFFMEISTER, PORTFOLIOS MANAGER AND CHIEF ECONOMIST Last month, we explained that interest rates were expected to stay higher for longer because inflation had become stubborn. Core PCE was holding near 2.8% in recent months, after declining nicely from 5.5% since 2022. As a result, the market had come to expect only one or two quarter point rate cuts by year-end, compared to as many as four or five at the beginning of this year... To read this and other full commentaries, visit us at: https://lnkd.in/emwwaNc

♨ Minor hot take: IMHO The US economy is probably going into a recession (if not already in one): These new job numbers are not even enough for a population increase. The issue has to do with the Fed's management of rates and its over-confidence about the "soft landing" issue. ℹ To be clear, the top-line data on jobs is hardly dire. The US unemployment stands at 4.3% - virtual full employment - though that might get revised slightly as well. Looking at the jobs data, one might miss some of the weaknesses in the US economy right now. The divergence between the "household survey" and the "payroll survey" is surprising. 💵 The Fed raised interest rates to challenge inflation and the strength the US economy showed after raising hope of a soft landing - a cool-down of inflation that is coupled with only a modest cut in growth. That seems to have created some overconfidence that resulted in the Fed not lowering rates in March. However, more recent data seems to indicate that the US economy is not handling the higher rates as it hoped. The constant increasingly large adjustments in data from US BLS is making this information increasingly unreliable. 🧟♂️ There is also concern that many are holding on to unproductive investments and zombie business structures, just trying to avoid taking losses and waiting for cheaper loans down the road. 🏘 The real estate sector is particularly problematic here. Those interested in selling are holding rather than cutting prices even without buyers. This is not sustainable. Also, many businesses that were surviving cheap loans were expected to hit a wall but have managed to sustain for now largely on the back of previous loans/investments. None of this is sustainable and the shocks of the last month seem to show cracks have formed already. A further slowdown in job production will make sustaining the status quo impossible. 🔴 The key problem here is that the Fed does not have its usual repertoire of options to save the economy. It will cut rates soon but if it cuts rates drastically, enough to stimulate the economy, inflation will most definitely come roaring back. Another issue is the lack of momentum in the tech sector which has been the primary driver of the US economy over the last decade. A few key companies have been carrying the weight of the S&P 500 but so much future growth is now already priced in and AI seems increasingly like a bubble.

As the economy slows, the Fed may need to cut rates to support growth. Explore how interest rate cuts could impact inflation, investments, and broader financial markets during this cooling phase. #EconomicOutlook #FederalReserve #InterestRates https://lnkd.in/gS4vF3Yr