First Trust Monday Morning Outlook "Slower Growth in Q4, But No Recession" Brian S. Wesbury - Chief Economist Robert Stein, CFA - Dep. Chief Economist January 22, 2023 The economy slowed substantially in the last quarter of 2023 from the rapid pace of the third quarter, but, as we explain below, still expanded at a moderate rate. Some will take this week's Real GDP report to confirm their prior view the recession is simply not in the cards for the US economy, but we still think a recession is more likely than not. Why do we still think a recession is coming? Because monetary policy is tight whether you like to use the yield curve, the "real" (inflation-adjusted) federal funds rate, or the M2 measure of money to assess the stance of policy from the Federal Reserve. Why hasn't a recession happened yet? Because monetary policy works with long and variable lags and a surge in the budget deficit in 2023 temporarily postponed the economic day of reckoning. We are right now living through a reckless Keynesian experiment with massive deficit spending relative to low unemployment, with the government having devised programs to temporarily boost GDP in the short run. But this government spending isn't lifting long-term growth; it's stealing from future growth. To read the whole article click on the link below!
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As 2024 begins, investors are optimistic about the direction we’re headed economically. Inflation is staying low and it continues to appear that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might cut interest rates soon. While the S&P 500 Index saw a modest increase of 1.6% in January following its remarkable 26% gain in 2023, strong Q4 GDP numbers and a positive jobs report suggest the US economy is on track for steady growth without too much inflation. SageView Advisory Group's Todd Stewart shares what we might expect for the global economy and capital markets this year.
SageView's Perspective: Navigating the Economic Landscape in 2024
sageviewwealth.com
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S&P500 Earnings are underway with the backdrop of slowing growth and rebounding inflation. In this article, I dive into the aspects of growth to find evidence there is life in this economy. Join me in this 10 minute read to prep for jobs data and the upcoming Federal Reserve policy announcement this week. #economics #federalreserve #useconomy #earnings
(10m) The Week Ahead - April 29th 2024
macrobeans.info
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33 charts that explain the current stage of the US economy incl. a few good charts showing the current status of US inflation. https://lnkd.in/guHgfcPz In these charts, top Wall Street experts explain how inflation's rapid decline and resilient economic growth, among other forces, have investors optimistic as ...
Yahoo Finance Chartbook: 33 charts tell the story of markets and the economy to start 2024
finance.yahoo.com
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So much of the economy's momentum heading into 2024 is predicated on three main factors — the consumer, inflation, and monetary/fiscal policy. A more appreciable erosion of the consumer as temporary funding supports fade could result in a more precipitous decline in broad-based activity. Similarly, if recent disinflationary improvement slows or retreats, a fierce or unexpected response from the Federal Reserve (Fed) could undermine growth.
2024 Outlook: Don't Count Your Chickens Before They Hatch - December 28, 2023
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We serve as a personal CFO for high-net-worth families to help them execute a plan to ensure their financial success.
The economy is growing despite inflation. Let's delve into the latest GDP trends and consumer spending behaviors. ◾ Despite inflationary pressures, the economy has shown resilience with continued growth, indicative of consumer confidence. ◾ Understanding these economic dynamics can help us make informed decisions and anticipate future market developments. 🔍 ◾ As we navigate these economic trends, it's crucial to consider their implications for our financial planning and investment strategies. ◾ Join us as we discuss these developments and their potential impact on the economic landscape. Let's navigate these economic trends together. #EconomicGrowth #Inflation #ConsumerSpending The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor. The views expressed in this commentary are subject to change based on market and other conditions. These documents may contain certain statements that may be deemed forward looking statements. Please note that any such statements are not guarantees of any future performance and actual results or developments may differ materially from those projected. Any projections, market outlooks, or estimates are based upon certain assumptions and should not be construed as indicative of actual events that will occur. All information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. There is no representation or warranty as to the current accuracy, reliability, or completeness of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information, and it should not be relied on as such. Legacy Capital Wealth Partners, LLC (“Legacy Capital”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Legacy Capital and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. This information is general in nature and should not be considered tax advice. Investors should consult with a qualified tax consultant as to their particular situation. https://lnkd.in/e9WTFWc5?
US economy grew at a surprisingly strong 3.3% pace last quarter, pointing to continued resilience
apnews.com
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Our perspective on the Investment Landscape in 2024
As 2024 begins, investors are optimistic about the direction we’re headed economically. Inflation is staying low and it continues to appear that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might cut interest rates soon. While the S&P 500 Index saw a modest increase of 1.6% in January following its remarkable 26% gain in 2023, strong Q4 GDP numbers and a positive jobs report suggest the US economy is on track for steady growth without too much inflation. SageView Advisory Group's Todd Stewart shares what we might expect for the global economy and capital markets this year.
SageView's Perspective: Navigating the Economic Landscape in 2024
sageviewwealth.com
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📈 US Economic Growth Stays Strong! 🇺🇸 The real GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3.0% in the second quarter of 2024, even with the Fed's aggressive tightening policies. 💼💪 [Source: AP News] Read more➡️ https://loom.ly/zJ74feg #USEconomy #GDPGrowth #EconomicNews #BusinessTrends #Finance2024 ➣➣ Start learning Everything about REAL ESTATE: https://loom.ly/1J9YvRU
US economy grew at a solid 3% rate last quarter, government says in final estimate
apnews.com
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Interesting article looking at combined impact of fiscal and monetary policies over the past four years. The overwhelming strength of the US Economy vs large developed peers provides meaningful context to examine the success of the combined fiscal and monetary policies. With inflation rate nearly down to FED 2% target level and wage growth, unemployment and GDP at very strong (even historic) levels, it appears that the sometimes chaotic policies have delivered results that may keep the US out of the recession that lots of pundits believed was inevitable.
Falling inflation, rising growth give U.S. the world’s best recovery
washingtonpost.com
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Hi everyone. Here's a summary from my most recent post on Paulitical Economy™: 📍A bit of fun with names. 📍Traffic to fast food restaurants is falling. 📍A fair bit of stuff on the potential retirement crisis heading our way. 📍The US national savings rate (personal, corporate, government, foreigners) has been declining since the 1970s. It’s now negative. Spoiler alert: That’s a really bad thing for productivity growth. Guess who the main culprit is. In Financial Ructions: 📍The US stock market is overvalued. 📍Revisiting GDP vs. GDI. 📍The Fed’s preferred inflation measure ticked up in February. But core ticked down. 📍And consumers are not saving enough. How can they when the cost of living has soared over the last four years? https://lnkd.in/geqmbtV2
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