Brian Stajkowski’s Post

🚨 Economic Slowdown Alert: The Federal Reserve gears up for a series of interest rate cuts in 2024! 📉 ING Economics predicts a total of six rate reductions as signs of a cooling economy emerge. With inflation and job market heat dissipating, the Fed aims to adjust rates to stimulate growth, starting Q2 next year. This strategic move could help avoid a sharp recession and keep the economy resilient. Stay informed and ahead of the curve with these crucial financial insights. #FederalReserve #InterestRates #EconomicTrends #Inflation #JobMarket #FinancialForecast #EconomicStimulus #INGEconomics #RecessionPrevention

The #economy continues to inch closer to a soft landing. But weaknesses in income and savings data seem less promising for future spending. Read our Real Economy blog for insights from RSM economist Tuan Nguyen, Ph.D: https://lnkd.in/gdRUv8ys

Forget a soft landing, there may be 'no landing,' warns an economist. As the Federal Reserve mulls its strategy amid lower inflation, the possibility of a 'no-landing scenario' emerges. What does this mean for the economy and you? Dive into the insights here: https://cnb.cx/3SBgOPn

Inflation is down, equity markets are strong, and the labor market continues to demonstrate resiliency—all of which points to a “soft landing” for the U.S. economy. But as BMO’s Deputy Chief Economist Michael Gregory explains, the Federal Reserve will likely remain cautious when it comes to interest rate cuts through 2024. You can read the article here to find out why: https://lnkd.in/gJx-uv9p   

This past year has undoubtedly been an interesting one in the #markets. From the #high-interest rates to record #inflation, it has been a year to remember. But as the end of the year is here, I want to look forward to #investing in 2024. Check out my latest newsletter by clicking the link below.

As the U.S. economy exhibits robust data juxtaposed with slightly weakening payroll revisions and creeping inflation, discussions intensify around the Federal Reserve's next moves. Fed speakers signal a potential shift, hinting at a tolerance for higher inflation and projecting rate cuts within the year. This approach seems to consider the massive wave of debt maturities on the horizon—sovereign and private debt combined that must be refinanced at potentially higher interest rates. Strategic decisions by the Treasury, such as launching a buyback program for long bonds and possibly offering an SLR exemption for treasury purchases, are aimed at maintaining market stability. Banks, consequently, are expected to increase their bond holdings without the need for additional capital. The long-term strategy could lead to a scenario reminiscent of the mid-20th century, where dollar depreciation and controlled interest rates contributed to bringing debt-to-GDP ratios to sustainable levels. However, the implications extend beyond pure economics. The timing of rate cuts by the Fed carries political weight, especially in an election year, potentially giving incumbents leverage or becoming a point of controversy in the political narrative. Moreover, the international impact of the Fed's monetary policy is significant. Anticipated rate cuts have the power to stimulate investment in emerging markets. For instance, economies like India may see an influx of foreign capital, fostering growth and propelling their markets to new heights. While viewpoints on these developments vary widely among professionals, it's clear that the Federal Reserve's actions reach far into various aspects of the socio-economic spectrum. Central bank policies, it appears, are far more than monetary decisions; they shape the economic and political landscape in the U.S. and beyond. [The views expressed herein are personal and synthesized from ongoing industry discussions and do not necessarily reflect the positions of any financial or political institutions.] #Finance #FederalReserve #Economy #InterestRates #USPolitics #EmergingMarkets #InvestmentStrategy #GlobalEconomy

Interesting article looking at combined impact of fiscal and monetary policies over the past four years. The overwhelming strength of the US Economy vs large developed peers provides meaningful context to examine the success of the combined fiscal and monetary policies. With inflation rate nearly down to FED 2% target level and wage growth, unemployment and GDP at very strong (even historic) levels, it appears that the sometimes chaotic policies have delivered results that may keep the US out of the recession that lots of pundits believed was inevitable.

Been saying for a while, I think at most two rate cuts this year, most likely just ONE and maybe even ZERO! 😲 It was unthinkable to say that 6 months ago, but the economy and inflation keep chugging along, so no reason for the FED to take any action! 💲 Comment below if you want to discuss with me on how this affects your strategy! #financialplanning #investing #moneyhacks #retirementplanning

The US economy is too strong for rate cuts. We’ve experienced wild economic swings, inflation, financial markets, and fiscal and monetary policy since COVID. The Fed usually begins a rate-cutting cycle after recessions, but not when growth is strong. Read more from Atlas Merchant Capital LLC's Larry Kantor and Bob Diamond here: https://hubs.la/Q02kbjn80 #ratecuts #economy #finance #useconomy. #us #monetarypolicy

First Trust Monday Morning Outlook "Slower Growth in Q4, But No Recession" Brian S. Wesbury - Chief Economist Robert Stein, CFA - Dep. Chief Economist January 22, 2023 The economy slowed substantially in the last quarter of 2023 from the rapid pace of the third quarter, but, as we explain below, still expanded at a moderate rate. Some will take this week's Real GDP report to confirm their prior view the recession is simply not in the cards for the US economy, but we still think a recession is more likely than not. Why do we still think a recession is coming? Because monetary policy is tight whether you like to use the yield curve, the "real" (inflation-adjusted) federal funds rate, or the M2 measure of money to assess the stance of policy from the Federal Reserve. Why hasn't a recession happened yet? Because monetary policy works with long and variable lags and a surge in the budget deficit in 2023 temporarily postponed the economic day of reckoning. We are right now living through a reckless Keynesian experiment with massive deficit spending relative to low unemployment, with the government having devised programs to temporarily boost GDP in the short run. But this government spending isn't lifting long-term growth; it's stealing from future growth. To read the whole article click on the link below!