Michael Swanson’s Post

Latest in our series of articles looking at what's next in the political world. This time the focus is on #Scotland 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 and how the tectonic plates appear to be shifting after years of SNP domination.

What would it mean for business if Labour wins the next General Election? This article in The Economist takes a look at Labour’s approach to business as some polls show that business leaders would prefer to see Labour get to power #LabourParty #UKElection #GeneralElection #ukbusiness #ukbusinesses https://lnkd.in/eDmpCAqj

https://lnkd.in/dmDVYTxu I think the first part of Laura Kuenssberg's headline is not entirely accurate, my point being 'which polls?'. As I posted last week, in the past few days we have had a persuasive number of MRP polls from reputable polling organisations which point to a large Labour majority (and I think we should take the one MRP poll which reduced the Tories to around 50 seats with a pinch of salt). Given the MRP track record generally since 2017 (and Survation's in particular), these can hardly be dismissed even by the most cautious Labourite. However, i do think the second part of Ms Kuenssberg's headline is spot on. First, Neil Kinnock's premature triumphalism almost certainly gets more of the blame for Labour's surprise defeat in 1992 than it deserves; but it played a part and it continues to haunt the party (and rightly so) to this day. Second, looking at the polls in sum, it remains very much the case that a large number of voters are motivated not by a desire to see Keir Starmer in No 10 but by wanting to kick the Tories out; there is a real risk that if these types in particular think the job is all but done they will decide not to bother voting at all to Labour's detriment. Third, and related, Labour does stand to lose votes to other non-Tory options; while this has been working for them in the case of tactical voting for the LibDems in by-elections (and which we'll also see in the general election), it could count against them in the case of, say, votes for the Greens in some constituencies. Fourth, Nigel Farage's comments on Russia/Ukraine may well push some who were proposing to vote Reform UK back into the Tory camp. Individually, none of these is likely to have a profound impact. But cumulatively they could see Labour's majority reduced significantly relative to what the better MRP polls are telling us. So, yes, this is no time for complacency - or a major gaffe of some sort.

We all know businesses don't vote! But what do senior decision makers across British business think about the upcoming election? and what are the key issues they're worried about right now? Read all about it from a new YouGov poll below

https://lnkd.in/edbtgY2H  How quickly will the new Labour government forget how unrepresentative their election has been? Each Labour seat in Parliament required on average nearly 35,000 votes whereas the 4 Green Party Seats required nearly half a million each. That is not fair and does not produce good democratic government. In the UK we worry that PR will produce unworkable coalition government making poor decisions. Are we that naive that we think the evidence of First Part The Post has been a roaring success? What we need is decision making that reflects the needs of all of us, not just those with money and influence. Please support the introduction of PR under this new Labour government and let Kier Starmer know you want this.

As Labour secures a massive majority with only 34% of the vote and a historic low turnout of 59.9%, we must ask: What does this mean for the future of British democracy? #UKPolitics #Election2024 #Labour https://lnkd.in/ebxzMYT4

Labour is in for the UK, there’s been a huge political turnaround in France and things remain uncertain in the US Presidential run. But what do the unfolding election results mean for investors? More about this in the latest edition of WeeklyWatch.

Financial advisers can help you map out your financial future and take the workload off your hands! WeeklyWatch explains more.

“Between work and home life, I have no time for financial planning.” Does this sound familiar? Read WeeklyWatch to find out how a financial adviser can help.

“Between work and home life, I have no time for financial planning.” Does this sound familiar? Read WeeklyWatch to find out how a financial adviser can help.