Michael Skarzynski’s Post

𝗨.𝗦. 𝗮𝗶𝗿𝗰𝗿𝗮𝗳𝘁 𝗰𝗮𝗿𝗿𝗶𝗲𝗿 𝗮𝗿𝗿𝗶𝘃𝗲𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝗕𝘂𝘀𝗮𝗻 𝘁𝗼 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗱𝘂𝗰𝘁 𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗲𝘅𝗲𝗿𝗰𝗶𝘀𝗲𝘀 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗝𝗮𝗽𝗮𝗻 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗦𝗼𝘂𝘁𝗵 𝗞𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗮 𝗮𝘀 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗮𝗿𝘆 𝗮𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗯𝗲𝘁𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗻 𝗠𝗼𝘀𝗰𝗼𝘄 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗣𝘆𝗼𝗻𝗴𝘆𝗮𝗻𝗴 𝗱𝗲𝗲𝗽𝗲𝗻𝘀 A United States Navy aircraft carrier arrived in the port of Busan, South Korea, on Saturday to demonstrate strength in the face of escalating threats from North Korea. This coincided with a joint statement from Washington, Seoul, and Tokyo on Monday condemning the deepening military alliance between North Korea and Russia. In this declaration, the U.S., South Korea and Japan clearly stated that they “condemn in the strongest possible terms deepening military cooperation between the DPRK and Russia”. This is not the first time North Korea witnesses such joint drills. In fact, already last November a Nimitz-class carrier, the USS Carl Vinson, reached Busan. In reaction to this multiplication of drills, Pyongyang has continued its illegal nuclear weapons program and missile testing. The nuclear-powered USS Theodore Roosevelt will be the protagonist of these trilateral exercises, also known as the Freedom Edge drills, which will take place in the waters of the Korean Peninsula. With 5,000 personnel aboard, the Roosevelt carries an air wing of more than 60 aircraft. This exercise also aims at boosting interoperability between the three countries’ navies and signalling their unity against the growing strategic partnership between Moscow and Pyongyang. The decision to conduct these drills comes just days after President Putin’s trip to Pyongyang to sign a security pact with his counterpart Kim Jong Un, which includes mutual defence assistance in the event of war. This move has raised concerns in the West as it significantly strengthens the military alliance between Russia and North Korea, both equipped with nuclear weapons. Russia has also threatened to arm North Korea should South Korea provide military aid to Kyiv, which has further motivated a mobilisation from Ukraine’s Western allies. Photo by Song Kyung-Seok/Pool/AFP/Getty Images

Europe’s version of the Cuban missile crisis is hurting South Asia The deployment of long-range missiles in Germany could be a replay of the October 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis. Missile proliferation in Europe will inevitably swiftly spread globally and multiply the security dilemma of militarily vulnerable and economically fragile states such as Pakistan. Pakistan can ignore the eco of the Cuban missile crisis in Europe but cannot be indifferent to the developments in its strategic environment, especially the military modernization of India. These escalator developments may deter Russian ingress in Europe but endure tensions and insecurity in global geopolitics by rejuvenating alliance politics and deployment of nuclear weapons at hair-trigger mode—to launch a pre-emptive strike on the adversary. https://lnkd.in/dvXm2JGm

https://lnkd.in/e3dgwtU7 The United States, Japan, and South Korea began the first trilateral “Freedom Edge” military exercise on Thursday, just shortly after nuclear-armed North Korea claimed it successfully test-fired multiple warheads. In a joint statement, the countries said their “Freedom Edge” moves expressed the will “to promote trilateral interoperability and protect freedom for peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific, including the Korean Peninsula.” The leaders of the three countries agreed at a summit last August to hold annual military training drills as they seem to project unity amid mounting nuclear threats from North Korea and China’s growing power in the region. This month’s “Freedom Edge” drills will involve the three countries’ navies and include maritime, anti-submarine warfare, and air defense exercises, said U.S. Rear Admiral Christopher Alexander, commander of the Carrier Strike Group Nine. “The intent is to improve the interoperability between our navies and ensure that we are ready to respond to any crisis or contingency,” he added, saying Theodore Roosevelt would serve as the drill’s command ship. Yet the maneuvers were closely watched by authoritarian-ruled North Korea, where state media praised the alleged successful launching of a missile with multiple warheads. However, South Korea’s military reported it as a “failed launch.” Yet North Korea’s increased launches come at a time of international concerns about the buildup of its nuclear arsenal. As of 2024, North Korea is estimated to have an arsenal of about 50 nuclear weapons and sufficient production of fissile material for six to seven atomic weapons manually. Adding to tensions were North Korea sending again hundreds of trash-laden balloons toward its southern neighbor in a tit-for-tat exchange after South Korean activists sent floating packages in the other direction carrying South Korea’s K-pop and K-dramas on USB sticks. The balloons have caused severe interruptions of domestic and international flights at South Korea’s main airport in Seoul, the capital.

South Korea is a key ally of the United States, with longstanding military and economic ties. The US-South Korea alliance, formalized through the 1953 Mutual Defense Treaty, has been a cornerstone of regional security for decades. Incorporating South Korea into AUKUS would enhance interoperability and coordination among these allies, creating a more cohesive and formidable defense posture in the region. It would also reaffirm America’s commitment to the security of its allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific, sending a strong message of solidarity and resolve. Countering North Korean Threats Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile programs pose a significant threat to regional stability. The regime’s continued development of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles, along with its unpredictable behavior, has heightened tensions and insecurity. The recent summit between Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un highlights the potential for increased military and technological cooperation between North Korea and Russia, raising concerns among Western allies. By including Seoul in #AUKUS, the alliance could integrate South Korea’s advanced military capabilities and intelligence assets, providing a more robust deterrent against North Korean provocations. See https://lnkd.in/gQv5rypU

The Biden administration is increasingly concerned that the intensifying military alliance between Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un could vastly expand Pyongyang’s nuclear capabilities and increase tensions in the Asia-Pacific region, six senior U.S. officials told NBC News. U.S. officials are also bracing for North Korea to potentially take its most provocative military actions in a decade close to the U.S. presidential election, possibly at Putin’s urging, the officials said. The timing, they said, could be designed to create turmoil in yet another part of the world as Americans decide whether to send President Joe Biden or former President Donald Trump back to the White House. U.S. intelligence officials believe Putin is providing North Korea with nuclear submarine and ballistic missile technology in exchange for Pyongyang’s sending Russia large amount of munitions for its war in Ukraine, the senior U.S. officials said. North Korea provides Russia with more munitions than Europe provides to Ukraine, including millions of artillery shells. Officials are also concerned that Russia might help North Korea complete the final steps needed to field its first submarine able to launch a nuclear-armed missile. The increasingly close relationship between Putin and Kim represents a major shift from when Russia worked with the U.S. in the past to try to rein in North Korea. Now, Moscow is using its veto power on the U.N. Security Council to give Pyongyang cover to evade sanctions enforcement measures intended to constrain its nuclear program.

Two despots cover their A_ses with a nucular fig-leaf 🫣 President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, revived a Cold War-era mutual defense pledge between their nations on Wednesday, signing a new agreement that calls for them to assist each other in the event of “aggression” against either country. The Russian president, in a briefing after the two leaders signed the document, did not clarify whether such assistance would require immediate and full-fledged military intervention in the event of an attack, as the now-defunct 1961 treaty specified. But he said that Russia “does not exclude the development of military-technical cooperation” with North Korea in accordance with the new agreement. The pact was one of the most visible rewards Mr. Kim has extracted from Moscow in return for the dozens of ballistic missiles and over 11,000 shipping containers of munitions that Washington has said North Korea has provided in recent months to help support Mr. Putin’s war in Ukraine. It also represented the farthest the Kremlin has gone in throwing its weight behind North Korea, after years of cooperating with the United States at the United Nations in curbing Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile program — a change that accelerated after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Putin and Kim Sign Pact Pledging Mutual Support Against ‘Aggression’ https://lnkd.in/gc6yvHvj

South Korea and the United States should prepare to face a North Korea that is technically more capable than it has been before. Putin and North Korean Ambassador Choe Son Hui discussed bilateral relations in Moscow on January 16, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said, Moscow and Pyongyang “intend to boost relations in all areas, including sensitive ones.” The most worrisome technology North Korea could seek from Russia would enable Pyongyang to miniaturize nuclear warheads to fit into a ballistic missile cone, survive reentry and hit targets in South Korea, Japan and North America, said Robert Peters, a fellow for nuclear deterrence and missile defense at the Heritage Foundation. “This technology is the last and the most critical step in North Korea fielding a credible nuclear strike capability and is well within Russia’s ability to share.” #WMD #CBRNE #CBRN #nuclearweapons #northkorea #southkorea #nuclearwar #technology #ballistic #missiles #defense #intelligencecommunity

According to White House officials, Russia has used North Korean ballistic missiles in Ukraine and is also trying to obtain missiles from Iran to replenish its stock of armaments for the war. This is a direct violation of numerous UN Security Council resolutions. The use of North Korean missiles represents a “significant and concerning” escalation in the collaboration between Moscow and Pyongyang. The U.S. believes that Russia and North Korea reached an arms supply agreement last year, in negotiations that included a July visit to Pyongyang by Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu. As part of the agreement, North Korea sent a thousand containers of ammunition and weapons to its neighbour and ally. In return, according to U.S. intelligence, the Pyongyang regime wants Russian military assistance 1. The situation is concerning and the international community is closely monitoring the developments. #standwithukraine #standupforukraine #armukrainenow #ukraine #kharkiv #dnipro #donetsk #luhansk #odesa #kyiv #kherson #mariupol #bakhmut #dnipro #izyum #chernihiv #crimea #ternopil #rivne #sumy #poltava #cherkasy #lviv #IvanoFrankivsk #zaporizhzhia #russianwarcrimes #genocide UK government U.S. Department of State United Nations International Committee of the Red Cross - ICRC International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) World Institute for Nuclear Security (WINS) Women in Nuclear IAEA (WiN IAEA) European Commission

North Korea has severed all road and railway connections with South Korea, citing self-defense amid rising tensions. This action further solidifies the heavily militarized border established since the Korean War. The decision comes after months of military fortifications, including increased landmines and barriers, coupled with provocations such as launching balloons into South Korean territory. Kim Jong-un has warned that North Korea may resort to nuclear weapons in conflicts involving South Korea and the United States, asserting that the country would use all its military capabilities if attacked. South Korean sources have noted North Korea's construction of a nuclear-powered submarine and drills simulating attacks on enemy territories, escalating concerns over possible clashes at maritime boundaries. Relations between North Korea and Russia are strengthening, with Kim labeling President Putin as his closest ally. Both leaders are committed to enhancing military cooperation, with North Korea reportedly supplying military materials to Russia in exchange for economic and technological aid. South Korean officials are apprehensive about the potential deployment of North Korean soldiers in Ukraine, fueled by a mutual treaty resembling a military alliance between the two nations. #AsiaRisk #GeopoliticalConflictandDisputes #SouthKorea Follow us for daily updates on risk and operations in Asia! https://lnkd.in/gd6bAWMq

Do not buy North Korean!: Reuters made an interesting article about the North Korean ballistic missiles used by russia against Ukraine, and the quality is just as "good" as expected. From Reuters: "About half of the North Korean missiles lost their programmed trajectories and exploded in the air; in such cases the debris was not recovered," Kostin's office said in written answers to Reuters' questions.'' North Korean missiles account for a tiny portion of Russia's strikes during its war on Ukraine, but their alleged use has caused alarm from Seoul to Washington because it may herald the end of nearly two-decade consensus among permanent members of the United Nations Security Council on preventing Pyongyang expanding its nuclear and ballistic missile programmes. #Ukraine #russia #northkorea #democracy #missiles #armukrainenow #us #EU #slavaukraini Source: https://lnkd.in/dvrU9632.