Project Syndicate’s Post

Lesser evil? In 2020, I voted for Joe Biden to put an end to Donald Trump's presidency. I did this reluctantly, knowing Biden was not a much better alternative. The evidence of his poltical career and of this first presidential term bears this out. Now, nearing the end of this term (increasingly likely to be his last), I can say that, while I will never vote for Trump, I will also not vote for Joe Biden. Why? Because myself and others have had enough of the gaslighting which suggests our only options are Democrats or Republicans. Both have proven to be warhawks and parties serving the interests of private capital. Biden has provided Israel with near unrestricted access to weapons to carry out a genocide in Gaza, and now to provoke war with Lebanon and Iran by proxy. This is bankrupting our public welfare infrastructure to merely inflate investment portfolios. These bubbles provide a meager distraction from the precarious condition of American society. Meanwhile, they claim the crises of this century (housing, ecology, student debt) are "too complex" to solve by simple measures. In the vacuum of political imagination, Donald Trump is doing comedy routines at his poltical events, gearing up to channel all that unaddressed political rage into his reelection. It's looking increasingly likely. As liberals stick their heads in the sand over that prospect, and cite flimsy evidence of Biden's track record, those who know understand what's to come next will be more horrifying than what as come before. A bleak future awaits us (if any future at all) unless we admit to ourselves the failures of this political generation, and recognize something different must be done. #socialismorbarbarism

ASR in Bloomberg Opinion | ‘Investing for Trump 2.0 Is Trickier Than You Think’   In Bloomberg's recent piece, John Authers discusses the implications a Trump 2.0 candidacy would have on the stock market.   • Attempts to pick “red” and “blue” stocks and sectors would be very unwise.   • De-globalization, tariffs and a weaker dollar are likely after a Trump victory.   • The critical post-election question: Would Trump go through with attacks on main economic institutions? Ian Harnett from Absolute Strategy Research argues as follows: "I would’ve thought that whoever he appoints as Treasury secretary would advise very strongly against playing fast and loose with the world’s reserve currency that allows the US to borrow more cheaply in the global markets. If you lose that confidence in the underlying institutions of the United States because of political interference in the Federal Reserve, then there would be a high price to pay for that. I doubt that President Trump will do that; I think he might surprise people by a fairly conventional choice."   To read this article in full, please see: https://buff.ly/488vx95 If you are interested in a free trial of our award-winning research, please see: https://lnkd.in/eTPw36RH

Another excellent article from Ruchir.

This Day in History: 2020: Biden +4.8 2016: Clinton +2.8 Today: Trump +1.9 In 3-way race: Trump +4.5 In 5-way race: Trump +4.7 Current prediction/forecast: Trump will win the clearest victory by electoral and popular vote we’ve seen since 2008. The events of this year look more likely to grow this lead than shrink it. Source: on legal front, every attempt has been seen as partisan and has helped him out. The cases are not going well enough for Dems to bring into play what are ultimately hypothetical polling. Voters will prioritize themselves over the candidates, as they should, and judge correctly that President Trump is a much stronger leader and a better fit for the challenges and top issues America currently faces. If the top four issues remain immigration/border, inflation/economy, the wars/foreign policy, and crime. Biden has no path to reelection. #Trump #Biden #DonaldTrump #JoeBiden

🇺🇸 **Donald Trump: Disrupting Governance and Economy** 🕊️In a series of unprecedented moves, former President Donald Trump has been accused of single-handedly creating an anarchist system of governance in the United States. Through his strategic maneuvering across different branches of government, Trump has upended traditional norms and sowed discord that has reverberated through the corridors of power.💼 The impact of Trump's actions goes beyond politics, affecting investor confidence in the system and highlighting the fragility of the economy. The stability that was once taken for granted is now shown to be vulnerable to the whims of just one individual.🔄 Trump's ability to disrupt the delicate balance of power within the government has raised concerns about the long-term implications for the economy. As uncertainty looms over the political landscape, markets can react erratically, leading to fluctuations that can have far-reaching consequences.🌪️ Just as a storm can upend a serene landscape, Trump's actions have shaken the foundations of governance and economics in the United States. The notion of a single individual wielding such power to disrupt established systems underscores the need for resilience and vigilance in the face of potential chaos.As the repercussions of Trump's actions unfold, the world watches with bated breath, mindful of the impact on global stability and economic dynamics. The era of Trump has ushered in a new chapter of uncertainty, where the actions of one can reshape entire systems in ways never before imagined.🌎⚖️ #DonaldTrump #AnarchistGovernance #EconomicInstability #GlobalImpact

Trump interview in Bloomberg Businessweek is a must read. What candidates say during campaigning doesn’t always become policy, of course. But knowing what could happen is step one to navigating well through potential policy shifts. Important to remember as well that what drives economies and markets is the sum of all policy and non policy factors- it’s a mistake to just focus on one or two issues or to underestimate factors beyond US borders or the DC beltway. https://lnkd.in/e6GW9u4W

https://lnkd.in/gMnQ9B-2 The Choice for President is Simple and Straight-forward. Sober Honesty vs. Intoxicated Lies. Jobs +Trusts + Government Incentives/Programs/Deliverability + Strong Economy + Healthy Environment + Corporate America Primed with American Citizens as Stock Market Winners - vs. - Unregulated Cheated Government Kickbacks + Presents to Fraudster Friends + A Drained Economy Led By Economic/Market/Banking Deregulation and A Market Bankruptcy Liquidity Haul Offshore; the Only way The Losers can Make Money in an Honest, Regulated, Fair, Rules Based Economy. Which is what you want if you got Millions invested as a Family in New York, Chicago and San Fransico. God Bless Dear President Biden and Team. All the Way; Hargobind Singh Mangat. Silver Plate Consulting.

This article was published in November 2023 in the Economist. American voters should be aware of what's may about to come this year if Trump is elected. Because MAGA Republicans have been planning his second term for months, Trump 2 would be more organized than Trump 1. True believers would occupy the most important positions. Mr. Trump would be unbound in his pursuit of retribution, economic protectionism and theatrically extravagant deals. No wonder the prospect of a second Trump term fills the world’s parliaments and boardrooms with despair. But despair is not a plan. It is past time to impose order on anxiety. #USA #Presidential #elrections2024 #consequence #electing #Trump #who #is #looking #for #vengence #and #prestige #for #his #ego

Mouth-breathing is cool, right? Seriously, as a kid with sinus issues, that's what I told myself. Last night.... not so much. Forgive the flamethrower approach. I respect the heck out of anyone with the grit to become #POTUS, and as Happy Gilmore taught us, only real jerks pick on old people. But seriously, is this a time for subdued or spin commentary? I vote no. To that end, here's my quick take on last night and the fallout: 1- There's now a clear question in front of the voters: are you comfortable with a figurehead Biden as president? Bobby Bowden was a heckuva successful figurehead at Florida State University, but he had the respect of his peers after 30 years of dominating the competition. The current #POTUS doesn't quite have that. 2- Depending on what the Democratic National Committee decides to do from here, last night could be the beginning of the end for #Trump's chances. If Biden does step down, it's all but certain that the new Democratic candidate would be viewed favorably vs. Trump to undecided voters (assuming Kamala Harris isn't the nominee). Trump's biggest asset is Biden. Biden stepping down would be unprecedented, but unprecedented is the new normal in US #politics. 3- I remain uncertain on which candidate is better for #CRE, especially #industrial product in port markets (where we have a big presence). Trump's 2018 tariffs didn't slow import growth, but there's gotta be a breaking point. But, more regulation and stronger unions doesn't exactly help either. One thing's for certain: lot's of entertainment to come. Scary, but entertaining.

As the US digests the results of the Iowa primary, today’s chart looks at the progress of Presidents #Biden and #Trump’s approval ratings over their time in office, as compiled by FiveThirtyEight. Biden started with much higher approval from Americans than Trump ever had, but the sitting president’s rating has dipped below that of his predecessor several times – where it remains. Would you like to see Macrobond create charts on other #macroeconomic topics? Let us know in the comments.