Publyon EU’s Post

#CallforContributions: “The 2024 European Elections”, Deadline 1 December The University of Duisburg-Essen invites proposals for contributions to an edited volume analysing various aspects of the 2024 European Parliament elections, to be published by Springer VS in spring 2025 in two language versions (English and German). The main objective is the timely analysis of different facets of the European elections, such as electoral systems, electoral campaigns, public perception of the election, the role of European parties, determinants of voting behaviour, or the consequences of the electoral results for European governance. In addition to analyses from European studies, perspectives from other (sub)disciplines and research areas, such as election, party, communication or governance research, are explicitly welcome. ➡️ https://lnkd.in/e6XFHysZ

Macron emerges as biggest loser in French elections France is already "in the midst of a political crisis," Jacques Sapir, director of studies at the School for Advanced Studies in the Social Sciences (EHESS) in Paris, said, commenting on the results of the French elections. He notes that Emmanuel Macron is undoubtedly the biggest loser of this election, facing a complex political landscape without a clear majority. Sapir explains, "Without a clear majority, and no forces able to secure an absolute majority, the political situation is poised to be a complex one." He draws parallels to the early 1950s under the Fourth Republic, where both the right- and left-wingers were excluded from any governmental majority. This historical context reflects today's situation where forming a stable government seems challenging. He further adds that if an alliance from the socialists to the neo-Gaullists of “Les Républicains” could be constituted, it would secure an absolute majority. However, he doubted the feasibility of such an alliance, questioning whether a socialist like Boris Vallaud could sit in the same government as a staunch conservative like Laurent Wauquier. Sapir warns that such weak governmental formations will not be able to address the economic and social crises in France effectively. “With the economic and social crises now going on in France, it is quite clear that we couldn’t afford weak governments,” he says. The real question, according to Sapir, is whether this political crisis could be patched up by unlikely but possible political alliances or if it will evolve into a regime crisis with potential riots and social unrest. He emphasized that the frustration on both the right and left could exacerbate the crisis, which might not be resolved before the Olympic Games.

The RN has always been a target of President Macron's strategy, and he has consistently declared his intention to bring it down. His "neither LFI nor RN" campaign was primarily designed to counteract the RN. Emmanuel Macron has consistently prioritised the struggle against the National Rally (RN) in order to polarise the debate and establish himself as the guarantor of order and republican consensus in the presence of extremes. In his 2017 campaign, President Macron explicitly identified the RN as his primary adversary, emphasising the danger that the far right posed to the Republic and the entire European Union. He constructed his speech around the necessity of combating populism and division, positioning himself as an example of national unity. Macron has consistently tried to exclude the RN from the legitimate political landscape in order to shape the political debate. The political strategy of Macron's withdrawal is risky and could have adverse effects on his majority. The consequences of this decision will not be apparent until the legislative elections' ultimate results are announced. Inadequate political coherence? It is certain that political stability is clearly not on top of mind.

As expected, despite the victory of right-wing and far-right parties in some countries, it will not affect the balance of power in the European Parliament. However, it will significantly impact national politics within EU member states. The coming year will be turbulent. France was the first to act. Macron's logic is clear. France has a very strong presidential branch of power, and the main battle will be in the 2027 presidential elections. There's time. Thus, Macron decided to make a maneuver akin to Kutuzov's, ceding the National Assembly to Le Pen as quickly as possible to burden her with the responsibility for decisions over the next two years, thereby reducing her ratings before the presidential elections. And don’t think this doesn't concern Ukraine. It does, because the EU is increasingly getting bogged down in internal political confrontations. As predicted. European Parliament Atlantic Council European Policy Centre The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM) New Eastern Europe https://lnkd.in/edE6KVMW

In 2024, twenty one (21) AU Member States are preparing for their presidential or national elections, representing more than a third of African nations in the process of selecting their leaders for the upcoming years. Against the backdrop of numerous Unconstitutional Changes of Government and setbacks in the rule of law and democratic principles across the African continent, it becomes imperative to underscore the significance of African early warning systems for instability and underscore the necessity for robust and sustainable democratic frameworks. With nearly half of the global population poised to participate in elections this year, it is evident that in certain regions, authoritarian regimes are increasingly inclined to undermine democratic processes to consolidate political power. Instances of weaponizing access to information, imposing restrictions on pre-election procedures, and manipulating results leading to the contested outcome of elections are on the rise. African institutions and non-state actors operating within the AGA-APSA framework, civil society organizations, policymakers, and others should increase their commitment to safeguard and advance democratic values to ensure electoral integrity, foster acceptance of credible election outcomes, and bolster public confidence in the electoral process. In this way, the ideals enshrined in ACDEG will be realised. 

Ahead of the EP elections, we wrote a CEPS explainer about the lead candidate procedure. The aim was to look beyond the rather simplistic dichotomy of the procedure's success and failure and analyse its past performance and impact in 2014 and 2019. Authors: Thomas Christiansen, Dionyssis G. Dimitrakopoulos, Matilde Ceron and I ✍🏻 Our papers concludes that: 🇪🇺 While it (thus far) had little impact on the ‘Europeanness’ of the EP elections, the procedure has made leadership selection more transparent, enhanced the Commission President’s public stature and has empowered them, also vis-à-vis the European Council 🇪🇺 The procedure has further highlighted the central role that political parties play, both at European and national level 🇪🇺 Overall, the lead candidate procedure did alter how the Commission President is appointed well beyond a pure intergovernmental model 🇪🇺Yet the growing trends towards the ‘presidentialisation’ of the European Commission is at odds with the unique characteristics of the EU’s political system more generally 🇪🇺(Lacking) intra-party competition and multilingualism are also highlighted as key challenges to a successful lead candidate procedure, alongside the importance of coalitions and inter-institutional coherence We also tease out some general conditions that would need to be met for the procedure to be more successful in 2029. These include: 🇪🇺 Making the candidate selection process more transparent and inclusive 🇪🇺 Designing the election campaigns to be more pan-European 🇪🇺 Securing public backing from EU leaders 🇪🇺 National media and national parties should pay more attention to the elections 🇪🇺 Consider pre-electoral coalition pacts This paper is based on their latest book: https://lnkd.in/e8i3_C4U 📖 Read the CEPS explainer here: 🗒️

Mayor of Istanbul Ekrem İmamoğlu has written an op-ed for The Economist on the significance of the results of the 31st March local elections in Istanbul and Turkey. He argues “the results of the local elections are a milestone in Turkey’s history. With most local power now entrusted to the political opposition by voters, Turkey is no longer devoid of options; its trajectory is firmly set towards democracy again. This victory showed that true democratic power lies in the hands of the people and citizens can form much stronger alliances than political elites. It is a turning-point that carries profound implications, not only for Turkey but also for its immediate region and beyond. It shows how authoritarian tendencies can be challenged and serves as an example to the world. Following a generation marked by democratic decay and economic decline, the Republic of Turkey enters its second century with a renewed faith in democracy.” Full article can be reached via the following link: https://lnkd.in/dzPJ277E

Landmark Election in Argentina since the Restoration of Democracy Argentina recently witnessed a significant milestone in its democratic history with a landmark election, marking a crucial moment in the country's political landscape. This event, occurring in the wake of substantial socio-political changes, has drawn attention not only within the nation but also on the global platform. #Argentinaelections #Contemporarygovernance #DemocracyinArgentina #Globalpoliticalimpact #SouthAmericanpolitics

The European Parliament elections #EP2024, and related change of Commission, will be seismic in terms of defining the ambition and leadership which will guide us through the response to the #biodiversity & #climatecrisis and in tackling the #costoflivingcrisis through a #justtransition - this is really valuable insight into the workings of 🇪🇺 level politics (it is intense) from the Jacques Delors Institute

#CallforContributions: “The 2024 European Elections”, Deadline 1 December The University of Duisburg-Essen invites proposals for contributions to an edited volume analysing various aspects of the 2024 European Parliament elections, to be published by Springer VS in spring 2025 in two language versions (English and German). The volume is jointly edited by Prof. Michael Kaeding and Dr. Alexander Hoppe (Jean Monnet Chair for European Integration and European Politics at the University of Duisburg-Essen) and Dr. Manuel Müller (Finnish Institute of International Affairs - FIIA, editor of the blog “Der (europäische) Föderalist”). It is a follow-up to the German-language volumes “Die Europawahl 2014 – Spitzenkandidaten, Protestparteien, Nichtwähler” and “Die Europawahl 2019 – Ringen um die Zukunft Europas” (both Springer VS) and builds on their experience. The main objective is the timely analysis of different facets of the European elections, such as electoral systems, electoral campaigns, public perception of the election, the role of European parties, determinants of voting behaviour, or the consequences of the electoral results for European governance. In addition to analyses from European studies, perspectives from other (sub)disciplines and research areas, such as election, party, communication or governance research, are explicitly welcome. LEARN MORE: https://lnkd.in/e6XFHysZ