Rabobank Asia’s Post

Rabobank Global Dairy Quarterly Q2 is out: The upward trend in global milk prices has decelerated slightly in Q2, following a notable rise in late 2023 and early 2024. Earlier in the year, forecasts projected a gradual but steady increase in prices for 2024. However, the market’s price recovery may progress more slowly than previously anticipated, as current indicators point to potential challenges ahead.   The earlier price surge seems to have been driven largely by a reaction to low prices and a phase of restocking, rather than a lasting boost in consumer demand across most regions. Now, buyers are turning more cautious in anticipation of a seasonal peak in Northern Hemisphere milk production. Additionally, China's increasing domestic production is reducing its need for imports – a trend that will likely continue to challenge the global dairy market in the near term.

In our latest Global #dairy quarterly Q3 2024: After seeing inconsistent milk supply growth for the last three years, we now expect the Big 7 milk-producing regions to record 0.14% YOY growth in 2024, followed by 0.65% in 2025. Despite mixed demand and retail price deflation in some regions, the global dairy market remains balanced. However, it will be sensitive to changes, and 2025 could see significant shifts as production increases and markets adjust. #RaboReseach

On this GDT day, the market saw some activity again. Butter prices in the EU dipped slightly, while powders faced more negative news. With the Global Dairy Trade (GDT) down by 2.8%, the pessimism in the market is gaining momentum. One of our partners observed, "It's the fat side of the market that is paying the farmers." Protein demand is down, and it's uncertain how quickly buyers will return to the market. Adding to the pressure on an already unbalanced market, more sellers are entering the fray. Want to read our market view, please click the link below. Want to receive these update in you mailbox everyday, please sign up for free via https://lnkd.in/eqMgFv73

Dairy Prices Surge as GDT Index Increases 5.5%! - August 20th, 2024 The Global Dairy Trade (GDT) index recently surged by 5.5%, marking its third consecutive rise after a sharp drop in July. In a competitive auction involving 181 bidders across 18 rounds, the average winning price reached $3,920 per metric ton, a 6.5% increase since early August. This price surge occurred despite global milk supply challenges, with forecasts indicating only a marginal increase in production in the coming months. While cheddar prices slightly declined, other dairy products like whole milk powder and anhydrous milk fat saw significant gains. The modest growth in global milk supply, particularly from the southern hemisphere's seasonal production, could influence future prices, keeping the market dynamic. Dairy farmers should stay vigilant and responsive to these trends, as they present opportunities to enhance profitability and refine strategies amid ongoing market fluctuations. #GDT #Global_Dairy_Trade #chaltafarm #chalta_farm #dairyproducts #dairyindustry #Dairy_Prices

Our latest Q2 Global Dairy Quarterly report, titled ‘Lower Equilibrium,’ provides insights into the global dairy sector 🥛🌍 With global milk supply growth remaining elusive, we've forecast an opening milk price of $8.40 per kilogram of milk solids (kg/MS) for the 2024/25 #dairy season🐄

Global dairy markets continuing to fluctuate as we move deeper into 2024. There is no doubt that inflation is still weighing on consumer sentiment (and purchase power) in many global markets. Demand for cheese and butter seemingly holding up ahead of e.g. SMP. Rabobank latest quarterly release makes for very interesting reading....as ever! #dairy #dairyindustry #milkpowder #milk https://lnkd.in/eMgPc_53

The latest Ornua Global Dairy Market Report is now available. 🔎 Global milk supply outlook is unchanged with annual output likely to be flat. 🧀 Reports suggest buyers still need to conclude business. 📈 Though activity is usually quieter in quarter four, some convergence with global price levels may occur. Read the full report here: https://lnkd.in/eds4JRnN

What if the cost of food today determines the future of global sustainability?🌍 The FAO Food Price Index saw a slight dip in August, standing at 120.7 points, down from July. While sugar, meat, and cereals experienced declines, the rise in vegetable oils and dairy products helped soften the overall drop. 🌾Cereal prices dropped, driven by increased wheat supply from Argentina and the U.S. 🌾Vegetable oil prices hit their highest level since January 2023, with palm oil leading the increase 🌾Dairy prices rose, reflecting higher demand for whole milk powder and butter 🌾Sugar prices declined, largely due to improved production outlooks in India and Thailand. With global food markets still volatile, the coming months will be crucial for both producers and consumers. Source: https://lnkd.in/dVbJgJDg #FAO #FoodPrices #Agriculture #Sustainability

The latest Ornua Global Dairy Market Report is now available.   🌍 Global milk flows will turn positive in the second half of the year, though supply should flatten by the end of the year.   🛒 Retail dairy sales stabilised, though after a strong start to the year, export demand has eased.   🔎 Market sentiment weakened, though activity usually slows in July and August and commodity pricing remains high. Activity should return once the holiday season concludes, but export demand will need to improve if pricing is to lift substantially.   Read the full report here: https://lnkd.in/eJB9q8zs   𝐀𝐛𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭   The Ornua Global Dairy Market Report is produced monthly, providing our Member Co-operatives and customer partners with analysis of global dairy markets from Ornua's dairy trading team. We are pleased to now make this report accessible via our website.    

Global fundamentals haven’t altered much since our last update, with the only major change driven by cold and wet weather which will limit and delay the EU spring peak in milk, especially in the UK and Ireland. Read our full May dairy commodity report here 👉 https://lnkd.in/g5shDbgY #dairyindustry #GDT #milk #cheddar #dairyproducts #yourpartnerindairy