A story on how things are "fixed" and passed onto the BLS.gov . See video links below (Ref[1]). Not the first time I heard similar stories but always "interesting" how financial institutions are blindly using "official" numbers as if they really capture reality when they are politically manipulated numbers (Ref[2]).
References:
1a- Video link 1: https://lnkd.in/e78f-_2T
1b- Video link 2: https://lnkd.in/eSqT7dth
2- https://lnkd.in/eKpmAT7y
3- Recent and upcoming methodology changes for the CPI: 2023
https://lnkd.in/e9Gfy9Ri
Tough to keep score without a scorecard. Even tougher when the previous figures are adjusted months later. How does this news impact your tactic and strategy over the coming months and years?
𝐓𝐨𝐝𝐚𝐲 𝐢𝐬 𝐥𝐚𝐛𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐚 𝐝𝐚𝐲, 𝐠𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐲𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐯𝐢𝐞𝐰𝐬 𝐨𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐚 𝐭𝐨 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐧𝐞𝐰𝐬 𝐦𝐞𝐝𝐢𝐚.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) UK labour market data comes out this morning at 7 am.
For financial markets experts, we’re looking for answers to these three questions:
1. What implications does wage growth have for overall inflation?
2. How likely is it that the Bank of England will implement a rate cut in the next meeting, and what factors might influence this decision?
3. What potential risks should policymakers consider when reacting to the current wage growth and labour market data?
If you’re on Newspage, monitor your News Alerts this morning for an opportunity to provide your views to the news media. If you’re not on Newspage and would like to provide your views to the media, please contact Jukka Väänänen.
WAS THE NFP REPORT FULL OF "FAKE NEWS"?
The January report made for an extraordinary hawkish report on the surface, but it was full of data flaws. The weather wreaked havoc with the wage growth numbers, while the BLS is still stuck with a flawed seasonal adjustment method.
Bottomline:
Is the job growth re-accelerating? No
Is wage growth re-accelerating? No
It may be later this year, but not for now.
Read more about it here -> https://lnkd.in/d6Wvhsz7
If you are driving the entire economy on indicators that are flawed, people suffer.
I've dove as deep as possible as one can into trying to figure out what Bureau of Labor Statistics is seeing and trying to figure out how they "impute" data for the monthly job reports, particularly the JOLTS numbers.
Surprisingly, there's algorithmic fudge factor applied rather than going off actual data (which is admittedly hard to collect) for each region. I care a lot of value of analytics and metrics, so much so that I personally check individual records in my data career, no matter what rank.
The amount of "hands off, metrics-are-true" attitude will sink companies, if not countries.
The job reports stats and numbers have been off wildly, I wish the data they work with is more open source rather than "analyst report" based.
Managing Partner at Federal Financial Analytics, Inc. | Author, Engine of Inequality
This is just more evidence of how badly awry a “data-dependent” Fed can go – data are only as good as they are and they often aren’t good until revised long after the Fed’s bets big. Wouldn’t it be nice if the Fed had a meaningful model of monetary-policy transmission reflecting acute inequality, dominant NBFIs? Oh well….
#NBFI, #banks, #Fed, #federalreserve, #monetarypolicy, #datadependent
Good morning all you financial pundits, it’s 𝐔𝐊 𝐥𝐚𝐛𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐚 𝐝𝐚𝐲 and I’m looking for insights from experts to share with the news media when the data comes out at 7 am from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
If you’d like to be featured, please get in touch with me pronto, tout de suite and ASAP.
We’re looking for answers to these three questions in particular:
1️⃣ What implications does wage growth have for overall inflation?
2️⃣ How likely is it that the Bank of England will implement a rate cut in the next meeting, and what factors might influence this decision?
3️⃣ What potential risks should policymakers consider when reacting to the current wage growth and labour market data?
If you’re on Newspage, monitor your News Alerts this morning for the ONS Labour Data News Alert. If you’re not on Newspage and would like to provide your views to the news media, let me know now.
Executive Professor of Finance; Associate Director of the Commercial Banking Program; Bank Treasury Risk Management (BTRM) faculty; Baldrick's Foundation Board member
Per my last post, I will be curious to see how today’s dotplot from the FOMC characterizes the Committee’s expectations for the long run interest rate.
